A Top 10 showdown highlights Week 7 of the 2024 FCS football season.
No. 7 Idaho visits No. 3 Montana State with a 9:15 p.m. CT kickoff on ESPN2.
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Montana State is 6-0, featuring an FBS win over New Mexico. The Bobcats don’t have any ranked FCS wins yet and their Massey strength of schedule is currently 76th in the FCS.
Idaho is 4-2 overall with an FBS loss to Oregon and an FCS loss to No. 6 UC Davis. The Vandals have three then-ranked wins (No. 17 UAlbany, No. 19 ACU, No. 25 NAU) and two now-ranked wins (No. 10 ACU, No. 24 NAU), plus an FBS win over Wyoming. Their current Massey strength of schedule is ranked 2nd in the FCS.
What does this weekend’s result mean for both teams for playoff positioning? Let’s start with if the home team wins.
If Montana State Wins…
For Montana State
Montana State has passed the eyeball test so far, but this would be its first statement win of the season. New Mexico, the FBS opponent MSU defeated, is currently just 1-4.
A win would set the Bobcats up for a run at a Top 2 playoff seed and coveted home-field advantage. MSU’s remaining schedule is:
at Portland State
at Eastern Washington
vs. No. 18 Sacramento State
at No. 6 UC Davis
vs. No. 14 Montana
Road trips to Portland State and EWU can’t be taken lightly, as UC Davis and Montana found out. However, a veteran MSU team should handle business there. Then, the last three games are where MSU can make its money. Two of the three ranked opponents are at home. Those two, Sac State and Montana, have fallen in the rankings. A trip to UC Davis before the Brawl of the Wild will be a challenge.
If the Cats beat Idaho this weekend, they’ll likely be favored to win the rest of their games. A 12-0 finish secures a No. 1 or No. 2 seed. The other Top 2 seed could come down to if SDSU, NDSU, or USD finish undefeated vs. FCS opponents. No. 5 Villanova has a chance to go undefeated vs. the FCS, but it may lack ranked wins to get a look as a Top 2 seed. Keep an eye on No. 8 Mercer as well, who is currently undefeated vs. the FCS with two ranked wins.
If MSU wins this weekend but drops one game in the remaining slate, an 11-1 MSU squad will be in contention for a Top 4 seed with SDSU, NDSU, Villanova, Mercer, USD, and possibly UC Davis if that MSU loss comes in California.
For Idaho
The Vandals would drop to 4-3 overall. Yet, its resume would still be pretty solid at 4-3. One loss at Oregon is thrown out, and the other two losses were to highly-ranked UC Davis (by one score) and Montana State (how Idaho loses could help shape the narrative — blow-out vs. competitive loss).
The Vandals would carry three then-ranked wins and an FBS win into the lighter portion of their schedule. This week is their fifth straight game vs. a ranked FCS opponent after back-to-back FBS games to open the season. Idaho is beat up right now, but things will ease up after this weekend.
Idaho’s remaining schedule is:
vs. Cal Poly
vs. Eastern Washington
at Portland State
vs. No. 22 Weber State
at Idaho State
That’s a favorable schedule for the most part, especially if you compare it to the first half of the season.
If the Vandals lose this weekend and then win out, they will be 9-3 with two FCS losses, four ranked wins (if Weber is still ranked), and an FBS win. It’s hard to pinpoint right now where in the Top 8 seeds that would land Idaho, as it depends on where other teams finish. But that resume should be good for a first-round bye. If Idaho loses this weekend and drops another game, an 8-4 Idaho team is probably in the 9-16 seed range and hosting a game in the first round.
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If Idaho Wins…
For Idaho
The Vandals add to their already-stacked resume.
Idaho would improve to 5-2 overall with one FCS loss to UC Davis, add its fourth ranked win, plus its FBS win over Wyoming. A victory on Saturday could potentially get the Vandals to jump UC Davis in the rankings, despite the head-to-head loss, due to their overall body of work.
All of a sudden, Idaho is back in contention for a Top 4 seed. The remaining schedule is:
vs. Cal Poly
vs. Eastern Washington
at Portland State
vs. No. 22 Weber State
at Idaho State
If the Vandals avoid upsets in this remaining slate, that’s a 10-2 record with five ranked wins (if Weber is still ranked), an FBS win, and just one FCS loss. Depending on how Montana State, SDSU, NDSU, USD, UC Davis, and Villanova finish, Idaho could climb into a Top 2 seed discussion if it finished 10-2.
A 9-3 finish with a win over Montana State could still get them a Top 5 seed, depending on what happens elsewhere.
For Montana State
The narrative around MSU could shift, from a team that’s being put in the same conversation as SDSU and NDSU to a team that was just beating up on bad competition and lost to its first good opponent of the year.
The Cats could also recover just fine if it were to lose this weekend. The remaining schedule is:
at Portland State
at Eastern Washington
vs. No. 18 Sacramento State
at No. 6 UC Davis
vs. No. 14 Montana
At PSU and EWU aren’t games you can just roll your helmets out and win, but MSU will be heavily favored. Two of the final three games vs. ranked opponents are at home, and Sac State and Montana have both dropped in the rankings. At UC Davis will be a tough one.
If MSU loses to Idaho and then wins out, an 11-1 record with an FBS win and potentially three ranked wins could be anywhere in the Top 4 seeds, just depending on how Idaho, SDSU, NDSU, USD, Mercer, and Villanova finish. Another loss, let’s say to UC Davis, could push MSU to the 5-8 seed range at 10-2 with two ranked wins and an FBS win. If MSU were to finish 9-3, it could sneak into the Top 8 seeds with a first-round bye, depending on what happens elsewhere. But the Cats could be pushed to a seeded team that hosts in the first round.
It’s only Week 7, but the result of No. 7 Idaho at No. 3 Montana State will be heavily weighed the night before Selection Sunday.
