The MAC has been among the most unpredictable FBS leagues, and one of the biggest reasons has been the play of Buffalo.
The Bulls were considered an afterthought in the MAC race during the preseason, but now they are tied for first place with Western Michigan and Ohio at 2-0 in conference play.
To demonstrate how crazy the early portion of the schedule has played out, Ohio was predicted to finish fifth in the MAC Coaches Preseason Poll while Western Michigan was seventh and Buffalo was 10th.
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Now, it’s still very possible that defending MAC champion and preseason favorite Miami (Ohio) will be a major contender along with Toledo and Northern Illinois, which are all 1-1. Nobody should count out Bowling Green (1-1), which lost one-score games to Penn State and Texas A&M but is coming off a 17-7 home loss to Northern Illinois.
Miami was the preseason pick, while Toledo was picked second and Northern Illinois was tied for third with Bowling Green.
Yet Buffalo being listed among the contenders, even after two conference games, is one of the most improbable stories in college football.
Consider that the Bulls (4-2) have already exceeded their win total from last year when they went 3-9.
It was a daunting task facing first-year Buffalo head coach Pete Lembo, who was hired on Jan. 21. Lembo went 112-65 in his previous three head coaching stints at Lehigh, Elon, and Ball State, and now he has brought his winning ways to Buffalo.
On paper, it doesn’t make sense to see Buffalo on top, especially since the Bulls have lost two games by a combined 82 points.
Sure, one was 38-0 against No. 19 Missouri, but on Sept. 28, the Bulls lost 47-3 at UConn. While UConn (4-2) is enjoying a strong year, the Huskies struggled mightily to defeat Temple 29-20 the week after beating Buffalo. Temple is just 1-5 this year.
Buffalo had a week off after the UConn loss and then won this past weekend 30-15 at home against Toledo.
The Bulls’ other MAC win was 23-20 in overtime at Northern Illinois. That is the same Northern Illinois team that won at Notre Dame in its previous contest before meeting Buffalo.
As for how impressive the Toledo win was, even after playing Buffalo, the Rockets are the MAC’s leading scoring team, averaging 32.3 points per game, so the Bulls held them to less than half their average.
Northern Illinois leads the MAC in scoring defense (17.2 points per game). The only team other than Buffalo that has scored more points against NIU is NC State, which beat the Huskies 24-17.
Buffalo is ninth in the MAC in scoring (20 points per game) and is 11th in total offense, averaging just 270 yards per game. The saving grace has been the defense. The Bulls are fourth in the MAC in scoring defense (22.7 points per game), even though they are seventh in yards allowed (374.7 per game).
The offense has surely had its moments, and last week against Toledo was arguably its best performance of the season, especially considering the opposition. It was the third time that Buffalo scored 30 or more points, but the other two occasions were against FCS Lafayette and a UMass team that is 1-6.
Against Toledo, the Bulls rushed for a season-high 230 yards. Al-Jay Henderson, who entered the game with 135 yards rushing on 39 attempts, rushed for 142 yards on 18 carries.
Quarterback CJ Ogbonna has done a good job running the offense and limiting mistakes. He has thrown five touchdown passes and just one interception and has gone four straight games without throwing a pick. He has also scored three touchdowns on the ground.
If the Bulls don’t make many mistakes, then their defense should usually keep them in games, especially with two tackling machines at linebacker, Shaun Dolac and Red Murdock, who had 15 and 11 tackles respectively against Toledo. Dolac leads the MAC in tackles per game (14.5) while Murdock is second (11).
Who would have thought that this week’s home game with Western Michigan would be a mid-season showdown between 2-0 MAC teams? Not all 2-0 records are alike. Western Michigan’s two MAC wins are over Ball State and Akron, which are a combined 1-5 in the MAC this season.
That doesn’t mean that it will be easy this week for Buffalo. The last time the Bulls had a huge win (over NIU), they were trounced the next week by UConn.
Still, the Bulls have put themselves in a good position entering the second half of the season. They have clearly been the surprise team in the MAC. How they handle this prosperity will determine whether they can contend for a conference title in what promises to be a wild race.
