Week 7 of the 2024 FCS season features a bit of a lighter slate with just two matchups between Top 25 teams.
Let’s predict some scores.
Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 37-15
2023 Record: 96-42
Week 7 Top 5 Games
No. 7 Idaho at No. 3 Montana State
Montana State has the best rushing attack in the FCS, led by future NFL prospects on the o-line Marcus Wehr and Conner Moore. Julius Davis, MSU’s top running back last year, hasn’t played yet this fall. Neither has All-American center Justus Perkins. But Scottre Humphrey (668 yards, 8 TDs) and Adam Jones (418 yards, 4 TDs) have formed a good 1-2 punch. The Bobcats are averaging 303.3 rushing yards per game, which is No. 2 in the FCS behind the option attack of Davidson.
Tommy Mellott is making good decisions, both with his arm (12 TDs, 0 INT) and his legs by not putting himself in harm’s way. It’ll be interesting to see if that “business decision” mindset (which is what he and MSU need) continues in the heat of the moment during tight games. Does MSU fall in love with the QB run game again when they need a big third-down conversion or a score in the red zone?
Idaho has one of the best defensive front seven in the FCS, led by LB Jaxton Eck (45 tackles), DE Keyshawn James-Newby (8 sacks), and DT Dallas Afalava (3.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks). The Vandals own the No. 8 rush defense, allowing 93.3 YPG.
This is now Idaho’s fifth straight ranked FCS opponent after starting the season with back-to-back FBS games. The Vandals have key players sidelined with injuries, while other key players are playing but fighting through injuries. MSU, while also dealing with some injuries, hasn’t been tested against FCS competition and has been able to spread the reps around.
I think Idaho may run into a buzzsaw here. The injuries, the road fatigue, the choppy QB play, the Bobcat Stadium environment, the revenge factor for MSU, and the Cats just being that good will be overwhelming.
Montana State gets a statement victory and wins by three scores.
RELATED: What’s At Stake For MSU vs. Idaho?
Prediction: Montana State 35-17
No. 24 Northern Arizona at No. 14 Montana
A pivotal game for both squads.
NAU wants to prove it is for real after beating then-No. 10 Sac State and losing to No. 10 Idaho by just one score despite losing starting quarterback Ty Pennington in the first half due to injury.
It can also be a turning point for Montana. While having an elite offense, the Grizzlies have allowed 35, 49, and 55 points in the last three games, jarring numbers for this program. Last week saw a 55-48 loss to unranked Weber State. At 4-2, another loss this week puts a serious question mark next to Montana’s playoff hopes. A win sets up the Griz for a likely 7-2 record heading into the final three games of the regular season.
The status of Pennington is unknown as of this writing. He is listed on this week’s depth chart, for whatever that is worth. Regardless, a motivated Montana defense with perhaps a simpler game plan looks to take a step in the right direction. They don’t have to be dominant like last year, just show signs of improvement as the offense is one of the best in the country.
Simply put, it’s hard to see Montana losing in consecutive weeks at home.
Prediction: Montana 38-27
No. 2 North Dakota State at Southern Illinois
Quarterback health is a storyline going into this one.
SIU is down to its third-string QB. Starter DJ Williams has been sidelined with a hand injury. And last week, Hunter Simmons suffered a broken leg. True freshman Jake Curry will make his starting debut on Saturday.
For NDSU, Walter Payton Award frontrunner Cam Miller exited last week’s game and it didn’t look good as he went back to the locker room with an ankle injury. But the x-ray was clean. It appears he’ll give it a go this week. At least that’s what he and head coach Tim Polasek are saying publicly. A sprained ankle could linger, and does NDSU really want to put their franchise QB out there at less than 100 percent with No. 1 SDSU coming up next week? Or do you fall into a trap game if you do sit Miller more out of precaution than necessity?
The Bison are clicking on all fronts right now, coming off of back-to-back dominant wins over ranked opponents. And SIU is sliding the other way, getting bitten by so many injuries across the 2-deep. We’ll see if the Salukis can put together a spirited effort in front of their Homecoming crowd. But NDSU will be too much and pull away in the second half.
Prediction: NDSU 34-14
Nicholls at No. 15 UIW
Last year, Nicholls made a statement in its 45-32 win over UIW, a game it led 45-19 early in the fourth quarter. UIW couldn’t stop the run, allowing 331 yards.
UIW looks improved against the run this year, and it’ll have to contend with Collin Guggenheim again, who is up to 456 rushing yards and five touchdowns. The Cardinals are on a two-game winning streak after losing to No. 1 SDSU and a healthy/ranked SIU team. They dominated Northern Arizona (which has aged well with NAU now ranked) and Prairie View A&M.
Nicholls also rides a two-game winning streak, beating Mississippi Valley State and Southern by a combined score of 117-7. This is after an 0-3 start with two FBS losses and a loss to ranked Sac State.
If UIW wants to keep climbing the rankings, it needs a win here. Zach Calzada and his two stud targets Jalen Walthall and Roy Alexander hit on some explosive plays to win a nail-biter in the final minute.
RELATED: Resumes For The Top 10 Ranked FCS Teams
Prediction: UIW 31-28
Princeton at No. 8 Mercer
A fun Ivy League vs. SoCon matchup.
Princeton is currently 1-2, beating Howard and losing to Lehigh and Columbia.
Mercer is 5-0 with two then-ranked wins over Chattanooga and Wofford. The Bears are elite defensively. They rank No. 1 in FCS rushing defense, allowing an incredible 29.2 yards per game and 1.17 yards per attempt. Their 7.8 points allowed per game is No. 2, trailing Butler’s 6.0.
Veterans Isaac Dowling (28 tackles) and Ken Standley (24 tackles, 3.5 TFLs) lead the defense at linebacker while LB Marques Thomas (24 tackles, 6 TFLs) has also played at a high level.
The offense has been solid as well, scoring 32.8 points per game. Mercer is too complete of a team to drop this one.
Prediction: Mercer 28-10
More FCS Predictions
No. 23 Chattanooga at Furman
Chattanooga came back on the national radar after beating ranked ETSU last week. The Mocs are now 2-3 overall after a 0-3 start, although two losses were to FBS opponents and the third a one-score loss to Mercer, who is now ranked in the Top 10. Furman has fallen off some after its quarterfinal run last year. The Paladins are 2-3, but they’ll be a tough out for any SoCon team in the competitive league. Chattanooga wins, but it’ll be a battle.
Prediction: Chattanooga 24-17
Tennessee Tech at No. 11 SEMO
Tennessee Tech is 2-3 overall, but it is 2-1 vs. FCS competition and 2-0 in the Big South-OVC standings, beating TN State and Gardner-Webb. SEMO will be too much, though. The Redhawks are 5-1 overall with a near FBS win. Veteran QB Paxton DeLaurent is playing at an All-American level, throwing for 1,669 yards, 16 touchdowns, and four interceptions. Dorian Anderson is already up to 572 receiving yards and six scores.
Prediction: SEMO 35-21
Stephen F. Austin at No. 22 Lamar
Lamar is 3-2 overall and 3-1 vs. the FCS, climbing into the rankings after it beat then-No. 20 Weber State 17-16. But it hasn’t looked great since, beating Texas Southern 20-17 and losing to then-No. 7 Central Arkansas 34-14. TSU is currently 2-3 with only one D1 win. SFA has looked solid in recent weeks, improving to 3-2 with two dominant wins over Northern Colorado and Northwestern State. The two losses were competitive games at FBS North Texas and at McNeese, who has been ranked this year. My upset picks haven’t hit at a great rate this year, but let’s go with SFA knocking off ranked Lamar.
Prediction: SFA 28-24
Brown at No. 19 Rhode Island
Brown is out to a 2-1 start, beating Georgetown and Harvard before losing to Bryant. Rhody is off to a strong start record-wise, sitting at 4-1 overall and 4-0 vs. the FCS. Rhody is definitely a rankable team, but you can poke at its close wins — beating Holy Cross (2-4) by three points, Campbell (2-4) by 12, LIU (0-6) by seven, and needing two overtimes to beat Hampton (3-3) by two. Rhody keeps the winning going this week. This could be a playoff team this year, but there are currently no ranked teams on the schedule (although at FBS-transitioning Delaware will be a good test).
The CAA being such a big league can be a blessing for the league. Unbalanced scheduling will lead to several teams with playoff-worthy records. But it could be a curse, too. How does the playoff committee view an 8-win CAA team that didn’t play any ranked opponents? It’ll be fascinating to see play out in what could be a packed bubble with the 12-game season.
Prediction: Rhody 31-17
Youngstown State at No. 1 South Dakota State
Hobo Day and a week before going to No. 2 NDSU? A trap game for the Jackrabbits? Maybe a fair thought in the preseason, but YSU has underwhelmed this year at 2-4. SDSU made a statement last week at UNI and should roll again this weekend.
Prediction: SDSU 35-10
