To say the first half of the season has been rough for Miami (Ohio) would be an understatement.
The reigning MAC champ is 1-4 and could very easily be 0-5 if UMass didn’t give the game away twice, both at the end of regulation and in overtime. Miami went 11-3 last season and returned 12 starters, including sixth-year quarterback Brett Gabbert. College football betting odds had Miami as a preseason favorite to win the MAC at +225.
What’s gone wrong for the RedHawks?
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For starters, the offense hasn’t been good at all. Miami is only averaging 13.7 points per game and hasn’t scored more than 20 points in a contest. With only nine touchdowns, the RedHawks are the only team in the league that hasn’t scored double-digit TDs. The run game has struggled, and a lot of it has to do with the offensive line.
Despite returning four starters and high expectations, the O-line has been getting beat at the line of scrimmage more often than not and has struggled to generate any push. Miami is averaging only 79 rushing yards per game after averaging 158 YPG last season. It has already given up 15 sacks so far this year.
Considering Gabbert likes to sling the ball and put pressure on the secondary, it’s surprising that the offense hasn’t been able to generate many points. One of the reasons has been turnovers. Gabbert has tossed seven interceptions on the season to just five touchdowns. The interceptions are tied for most in the league while the TD passes are the seventh most.
It’s unusual for Gabbert to toss so many picks. He’s already thrown more than he has in any season besides 2019, where he had eight interceptions. Gabbert was named the MAC Freshman of the Year that season.
Let’s not forget, though, that Gabbert is coming off a severe season-ending leg injury that forced him to miss the final six games of last season.
There’s a chance the injury is limiting Gabbert’s potential, but it’s not the only factor that’s played into the slow start for this offense. There’s been a handful of factors that have led to Miami getting in scoring position. Kicker Dom Dzioban is 9 of 11 on field goal attempts, and one miss has come from 40-plus yards and the other from 50-plus. He’s been solid when he needs to be.
The only problem is, Miami also just isn’t able to sustain drives. The eight turnovers on the season also don’t help. In the second half last week against Toledo, the RedHawks were finally able to put together back-to-back quality drives until one of them resulted in a red zone interception which sealed the game for Toledo.
The inability to sustain drives has put a lot of pressure on the defense — which, all things considered, has played great. Miami still has one of the best defenses in the MAC and the reigning MAC Defensive Player of the Year in Matthew Salopek. The defense has done what it’s needed to do to give the RedHawks a chance to win each game. It should also be considered that Miami played a strong non-conference slate, facing three Power Four programs. Still, I’d argue the RedHawks should have won at least one of those games.
If the RedHawks can figure some things out, and the defense can continue playing at a high level, then Miami still has a chance to flip its season around and make a run in the MAC. I don’t anticipate the RedHawks making it back to the MAC title game, let alone winning it. There hasn’t been a repeat conference champion in the MAC since 2011-12 when Northern Illinois did it.
But there’s potential for Miami to still reach a bowl game. That’ll need to start with a win this week at Eastern Michigan. The RedHawks are a 2.5-point favorite.
Miami (Ohio)-Eastern Michigan Football Prediction
I predict Eastern Michigan will win. The RedHawks just haven’t shown enough to trust them in this situation against a 4-1 EMU team.
The Eagles haven’t played a difficult schedule, but I need to see some sort of life from Miami before I can roll with the RedHawks to pick up a quality conference win.
