It’s been over a year since the Pac-12 as we knew it began to dismantle due to college football conference realignment, and it was unclear what the remaining two teams in the conference will do.
Oregon State and Washington State are in a scheduling agreement with the Mountain West for the 2024 season. But beyond that, OSU and WSU faced an uncertain future.
That was, until recently. Here’s a look at what’s going on with the Pac-12.
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Boise State, Fresno State, Colorado State, Utah State & San Diego State Join The Pac-12
Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Utah State, and San Diego State have announced they are officially going to the Pac-12, beginning during the 2026 season.
Those moves will likely create a ripple effect for the rest of the FBS. The Pac-12 needs at least one more team to be technically considered a conference, so others will likely become members of the new-look league. The Mountain West is losing some of its top teams and will be searching for candidates to boost its numbers back up.
Pac-12 officials reportedly believe the league can reach a media deal worth more than the Mountain West’s currently, which could be a key reason for these moves.
The Pac-12 is no longer an autonomous league, meaning it had more influence in regards to NCAA decisions and received more money from the College Football Playoff. It’s uncertain if the Pac-12 could regain that status. It’s also unclear if the CFP would go back to six automatic qualifying spots for conference championship winners, as that number decreased to five following the Pac-12 dropping to two teams.
Pac-12/Mountain West Lawsuit
Several outlets published stories last week about the Pac-12 filing a lawsuit against the Mountain West over its poaching penalties. That number will be more than $50 million now that five teams are going from the Mountain West to the Pac-12.
Those fees are on top of the $17 million per school that the soon-to-be Pac-12 members will have to pay for leaving the Mountain West, though the Pac-12 will cover some or all of that.
The poaching penalties were part of the scheduling alliance that the Pac-12 and Mountain West made for this season.
The Pac-12’s argument is it’s an antitrust issue. The conference allegedly is claiming it had no choice but to agree to that deal because most of the conference’s teams had left and the league had only a few months to come up with a schedule for the 2024 season.
Memphis, USF, UTSA & Tulane To Stay In The AAC
The Pac-12 was reportedly hoping to add some of the top programs in the AAC as well, but now that’s not happening.
Memphis, Tulane, South Florida, and UTSA publicly announced a recommitment to the AAC last month. That seriously hampers the Pac-12’s expansion efforts.
All four of those schools are located in good markets, and all four of them were in bowl games in 2023. They were logical targets for the Pac-12 aside from travel costs.
Now the question is what other teams might the Pac-12 be considering.
UNLV, Air Force To Remain In The Mountain West
UNLV, Air Force, and the Mountain West’s remaining full-time members have reportedly recommitted to staying in the Mountain West despite interest from the Pac-12 and AAC.
Air Force was reportedly being considered as an addition for the AAC before Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, and San Diego State announced they were going anywhere.
The move would’ve made sense for the Falcons. They could have joined a league with Army and Navy and could have avoided the uncertainty that the Mountain West is looking at. Air Force also doesn’t play too far from Denver, which provides some benefits as well.
Instead, the Falcons as well as programs like UNLV and San Jose State seem to be a part of the Mountain West’s immediate future.
Pac-12 & Mountain West Don’t Extend Scheduling Arrangement Past 2024
The Mountain West and Pac-12 didn’t sign off on a deal to continue their scheduling agreement past this season. The deadline to do so was Sept. 1.
Oregon State and Washington State made a scheduling deal with the Mountain West for this year. Mountain West teams scheduled seven games against league opponents with another being against either WSU or OSU in 2024. Those two programs aren’t eligible for the Mountain West Championship.
For one year of this arrangement, the two schools are paying the Mountain West $14 million, according to Yahoo Sports.
Pac-12 2024 Conference Realignment News
The Mountain West announced last week the league is bringing in UTEP, which is currently a member of Conference USA and was believed by some to be a potential target for the Pac-12.
UTEP is joining a conference that’s stronger in terms of on-the-field performance.
And that’s not including the five teams which will be members of the Pac-12 in two years. For example, Air Force reached the AP Top 25 as recently as last season, and UNLV was ranked at 25th last week after two wins over Power Four programs.
There’s also familiarity with the Miners and the other current Mountain West teams, as UTEP played against all of those programs while in the Western Athletic Conference.
UTEP’s decision appears to be financially sound as well. The money made from the Mountain West’s TV deal could be more than four times as much as UTEP is making with Conference USA’s. That’s going off of the current numbers of those deals, and that could of course end up changing with so many teams leaving the Mountain West, which has a TV deal that will reportedly expire after next season.
UTEP’s move could also end up making sense from a travel standpoint as well. While Texas State announced its commitment to the Sun Belt, reports have indicated Tarleton State might also end up going to the MW, so that could be another team in the state of Texas. Currently only one other CUSA team is in the Lone Star State (Sam Houston).
UTEP will become a member of the Mountain West on July 1, 2026. The Miners’ football team will begin Mountain West play during the 2026 season.
Which FBS Teams Are Candidates To Join The Pac-12?
- New Mexico State
- UConn
- Toledo
- Northern Illinois
The Pac-12 reportedly wouldn’t need or even want to reach double-digit members in the near future. But it does need at least one more team.
But now that the rest of the MW and any AAC teams appear to be out of the question, the Pac-12 will have to look elsewhere. From a geographical perspective, New Mexico State makes sense. UConn is currently an independent program, so the Pac-12 wouldn’t have to worry about any exit fees with that addition.
The Mountain West reportedly notified the MAC that the MW was interested in adding Toledo and Northern Illinois as football-only members. But those schools would have a lot to consider, including travel costs.
It would’ve made more sense for the Pac-12 to pick up additional Mountain West teams, but those programs have reportedly been offered money made from exit fees to stay.
Also, no one should rule out the possibility of the Pac-12 adding FCS teams. But those programs will likely be considered by the Mountain West now as well.
Which Teams Could Be Expansion Targets For The Mountain West & Pac-12?
- New Mexico State
- Toledo
- Northern Illinois
- Tarleton State
- Montana
- Montana State
- Sacramento State
- North Dakota State
- South Dakota State
- Idaho
- UC Davis
Now that the Pac-12 is loading up on some of the top teams from the Mountain West, the MW is in a tough position.
As of right now, nine of the current 12 Mountain West teams would need to vote toward dissolving the league. And since it appears the Pac-12 is taking fewer than nine teams, as much as it would save the departing teams plenty of money, that doesn’t seem likely.
If the league only loses five teams, there’s still half of a conference left over.
The obvious first place to look for more teams would be elsewhere in the FBS. Most of the AAC, MAC, and Sun Belt would be too far away to consider, or those teams would prefer to stay in the leagues they are in. However, the Mountain West has reportedly looked at adding Toledo and NIU for football only. Some from Conference USA, specifically New Mexico State, would be a good place to start because of geography. NMSU could be in a league that also features New Mexico.
From there, the Mountain West would be wise to at least consider some of the nearby teams in the FCS, like Tarleton State. That could also include adding arguably the top four teams in that subdivision, which happen to be not too far away – Montana, Montana State, North Dakota State, and South Dakota State. North Dakota and South Dakota could also be in that conversation if taking teams from those states led to legislative leaders requiring a package deal in those instances.
Idaho, a former FBS team, as well as Sacramento State and UC Davis would also make sense because of their locations.
Pac-12/Mountain West Poaching Penalties & Fees
The Mountain West will be owed at least roughly $55 million in poaching penalties for the five teams going to the Pac-12. That’s also not including the $17 million each school has to pay for leaving the league.
Those poaching penalty numbers are part of the scheduling agreement those two leagues made this offseason.
If one Mountain West team had gone to the Pac-12, the Pac-12 would’ve had to pay $10 million. Two schools would have been $20.5 million, four would’ve been $43 million, five is $55 million, and six would be $67.5 million.
That is a lot of money. However, the former Pac-12 teams that left the league paid a $65 million settlement to Washington State and Oregon State. The Pac-12 will also have $190 million in future revenue. So the cash is there.
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What Are The Mountain West Buyouts For Leaving The Conference?
Mountain West teams have to pay $17 million when any one of them leaves the conference with a one-year notice. Any notice less than that amount of time, then the fee would jump to $34 million.
How Much Is The Pac-12 Paying The Mountain West In 2024?
The 2024 Mountain West/Pac-12 arrangement is costing the Pac-12 about $14 million.
Old Pac-12 Teams Now In The Big 12
Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah went to the Big 12 for this season and beyond.
Old Pac-12 Teams Now In The Big Ten
USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington are in the Big Ten beginning this year.
Old Pac-12 Teams Now In The ACC
After those aforementioned eight teams went to other power conferences, Cal and Stanford decided to go to the ACC and are competing in that league this academic year.
