Week 8 of the 2024 FCS season is highlighted by one of the most anticipated regular-season games in quite some time.
After a 10-0 mark last week and finally nailing an upset pick, we’ll see if that continues into this weekend. Let’s predict some scores.
Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 47-15
2023 Record: 96-42
Week 8 Top 5 Games
No. 1 South Dakota State at No. 2 North Dakota State
I tipped my hand earlier this week in my FCS Bracketology story when I projected NDSU to be the No. 2 playoff seed and SDSU No. 3. I’ve had a gut feeling about this game since August, thinking NDSU is going to get the Dakota Marker back after a long drought. The Bison bring back so many seniors, the front seven is playing well, quarterback play is elite, receivers and running backs have stepped up, and it’s in the Fargodome. An SDSU 5-game winning streak was unthinkable a decade ago. The streak has to end at some point. And if not this year? Then when?
But that doesn’t mean my prediction has to be locked in.
I started second-guessing earlier this week when the NDSU injury report came out.
Cam Miller, playing at a Walter Payton Award level, is nursing an ankle injury. He didn’t look like himself last weekend at Southern Illinois. And if he can’t make plays with his legs, whether it’s running downfield on designs or broken plays, or he can’t extend plays and maneuver inside and outside the pocket, that could be a legit difference-maker on Saturday. Plus, All-American DE Dylan Hendricks will miss this game and potentially the rest of the season with a knee injury. And starting middle linebacker Nick Kubitz is questionable as he recovers from a head injury. MLB has been a point of contention for NDSU’s defense the last couple of years, but Kubitz has really played well as of late.
Those are three major players either not playing or playing at less than 100 percent.
Meanwhile, if SDSU showed any chinks in the armor during non-conference, the Jackrabbits have appeared to iron most of it out. They look like the two-time defending champs and have rolled in conference play. The defense is perhaps the best in the FCS. The o-line is playing strong for a loaded running back room, while the passing game with Mark Gronowski and his receivers/tight ends is still coming along as they are starting to connect more consistently.
And it’s not like SDSU is fully healthy either. The Jacks have had some starting offensive linemen in and out. The d-line has suffered some injuries. And their two standout safeties have missed time. Cale Reeder is out for the year with a shoulder injury. All-American safety/returner Tucker Large hasn’t played since mid-September. Large was shown wearing a protective boot on the sidelines during the game last week, although he is now listed on this week’s depth chart as an “or” starter with Matthew Durrance.
So much is on the line in this one — rankings, seed positions, program trajectory, recruiting, Gronowski chasing Easton Stick’s FCS record for QB wins, Miller trying to beat SDSU for the first time, etc.
The Fargodome home-field advantage isn’t what it used to be compared to the peak in the early to mid-2010s. And that’s somewhat understandable as the Bison and their fans have accomplished all there is to accomplish in the FCS while watching several like-minded football programs move up to the FBS. While the Dome may not reach 2012 Georgia Southern again, Saturday could come pretty close. The Fargo faithful are thirsting for a win over a team they very much dislike. Keep an eye on how SDSU’s new offensive tackles handle the noise. The crowd could give an extra boost to an NDSU team already playing with an edge and willing itself, despite injuries, to end the five-game losing streak to its rival.
SDSU may get the last laugh this season (rings instead of rocks, amirite?). But in a competitive rivalry series like this, and with it being in Fargo, NDSU looks poised to get back in the win column on Saturday.
RELATED: FCS Bracketology 1.0
Prediction: NDSU 28-27
No. 16 Rhode Island at No. 24 New Hampshire
A pivotal game for both teams as it may be the winner’s only ranked win on their playoff resume.
UNH is 4-2 overall and 4-1 vs. the FCS, losing to Harvard. The Wildcats edged a struggling Elon team 17-10 last week. They go to No. 5 Villanova in what will be a tough place to get a win. There are no currently-ranked opponents after that.
Rhody is an interesting team because this is the only ranked team on its schedule, although Delaware would be a rankable team if eligible to be voted on.
It’s a blessing and a curse for the CAA to have so many programs. The conference will have a lot of teams with records good enough to make the playoffs. But if those teams have 0 or 1 ranked win, how well does that set them up in the playoffs? It’s an interesting scheduling conundrum and “strategy” for the CAA.
The Rams are 5-1 overall and 5-0 vs. the FCS. A 3-point win over Holy Cross, a 7-point win over LIU, and a 2-point win over Hampton make a voter wonder where exactly this team is at.
UNH is 2-0 at home this year. The Wildcats are getting good quarterback play from Seth Morgan, a former starter at VMI. He has thrown for 1,340 yards, 15 touchdowns, and four interceptions. Josiah Silver is continuing his incredible career at defensive end, totaling 33 tackles, 12.5 TFLs, and 7.5 sacks so far this fall. Watch him take advantage of a Rhody pass-blocking grade that is ranked No. 69 on PFF.
I’ll take UNH at home, a program that would be nice to see back in the postseason after being a playoff staple for so long.
Prediction: UNH 31-24
No. 7 Mercer at Samford
We sang the praises of Central Arkansas. But then it fell into a trap game.
We then sang the praises of Abilene Christian. But then it fell into a trap game.
Does that mean teams like Mercer and SEMO are on the clock?
Mercer is off to a dynamite start, sitting at 6-0 with two ranked wins. The defense has dominated, ranking No. 1 in FCS scoring defense (7.7 PPG), No. 1 in rushing defense (38.8 yards per game), No. 1 in rushing yards allowed per attempt (1.48), No. 2 in total defense (219.3 YPG), No. 8 in TFLs (46), and No. 1 in interceptions (13).
Samford is a dangerous team, though. The Bulldogs are 2-3, but they nearly beat a rankable ETSU squad before losing 31-28 in the final minutes. Quincy Crittendon has thrown for 1,138 yards, 10 touchdowns, and two interceptions.
On the other side, Mercer QB D.J. Smith is expected to return from an ankle injury. The JuCo transfer, who is a junior this year, has thrown for 981 yards, eight touchdowns, and five interceptions while rushing for 167 yards and three touchdowns.
Defense travels. And the Bears will lean on that unit to go to Samford and get a road win.
Prediction: Mercer 27-14
McNeese at No. 14 UIW
UIW made a statement last week, beating 2023 Southland champs Nicholls 55-10 to improve to 4-2. Zach Calzada had himself a day, throwing for 270 yards and five touchdowns. The UIW defense held the run-heavy Nicholls offense to just 123 yards and 40 carries.
McNeese comes in after an important bye week. The Cowboys knocked off No. 25 Weber State at the end of September, improving to 4-2 overall and 4-1 vs. the FCS. The following week, though, they lost 43-22 at HCU. Clifton McDowell suffered a finger injury on his throwing hand in that loss. He sat in the second quarter, then returned in the second half, but you could tell the finger was bothering him.
McDowell has played well this fall after transferring in from Montana, leading the team with 370 rushing yards and six touchdowns while throwing for 1,054 yards, six TDs, and three interceptions.
The McNeese defense has also suffered several injuries. We’ll see if the bye week can get the Cowboys healthier. Winning at a hot UIW team will be an uphill battle, though, healthy or not.
RELATED: Resumes For The Top 10 Ranked FCS Teams
Prediction: UIW 41-20
Weber State at Sacramento State
This looks like a de facto playoff elimination game.
Both teams already have four losses and likely need to win out to reach the postseason. A 7-5 record in a 12-game season will be like a 6-5 record in previous years — can sometimes get you into the bracket, but it is rare.
Sac State was preseason No. 8. The Hornets are now 2-4 overall and 2-2 vs. the FCS, losing to consecutive unranked teams — Northern Arizona and EWU. They still need to play ranked Montana State and UC Davis.
Weber State was preseason No. 22. The Wildcats are now 3-4 overall and 3-3 vs. the FCS. They lost to unranked Lamar and McNeese, won at No. 8 Montana, and then gave Northern Colorado its first win since 2022. Weber still needs to play at ranked Idaho.
Both squads are tough to figure out. And both teams will probably end up missing the playoffs anyway. But the loser’s playoff hopes are almost certainly squandered. I’ll side with the home team here. Sac State has too much experience to drop a second straight home game. And Carson Conklin is playing well (1,100 yards, 13 TDs, 4 INT) to get the Hornets back on track.
Prediction: Sac State 28-24
More FCS Predictions
Eastern Kentucky at No. 17 Abilene Christian
EKU suffered its first FCS loss last week at Southern Utah. Abilene Christian looks to rebound from a loss to North Alabama that dropped it out of the Top 10. ACU gets it done behind the arm of Maverick McIvor (2,231 yards, 17 TDs, 3 INT).
Prediction: ACU 35-28
No. 25 Florida A&M at Jackson State
This very well could decide the SWAC East champ. Jackson State is 2-0 in the standings (4-2 overall, 3-1 vs. the FCS) and FAMU is 1-0 in conference play (3-2 overall, 3-0 vs. the FCS). It’s going to be an incredible crowd. But I trust FAMU’s defense a bit more to get a hard-earned road win.
Prediction: FAMU 27-24
Delaware at No. 18 Richmond
Delaware is off to a 6-0 start. The Blue Hens are not eligible to be voted on in the polls as it transitions to the FBS. While it won’t count as a ranked win, it would still be a resume-boosting win for playoff-hopeful Richmond, who has won four straight after a 0-2 start. I’ll lean Delaware here.
Prediction: Delaware 28-21
Northern Iowa at No. 9 North Dakota
This is a crucial game for UND. The Fighting Hawks are coming off a bye week after a humbling 41-17 loss at NDSU. At 4-2 overall and 4-1 vs. the FCS with a ranked win over then-No. 4 Montana, UND has a good shot at hitting eight wins by beating UNI, YSU, Indiana State, and Illinois State. The other two remaining games are hosting Top 5 SDSU and USD. Splitting those would be massive. Losing both would be fine if the Hawks don’t mess around and lose the other games they are favored to win. And that starts this week hosting a UNI team that is at its lowest point in recent memory, sitting at 2-4 overall and 0-2 in the MVFC, losing 41-3 vs. SDSU and 42-17 at USD.
Prediction: North Dakota 28-17
Wofford at No. 19 Chattanooga
Chattanooga is 3-3 overall, 3-1 vs. the FCS, has won three straight, and has one-score losses to FBS Georgia State and Top 10 Mercer. The Mocs are a dangerous team with one ranked win over ETSU on their resume. Wofford is still hanging around in the playoff picture at 3-3 and a ranked win over Richmond. Chattanooga is rolling, though, and I don’t think the Terriers will have the offensive firepower to hang for four quarters.
Prediction: Chattanooga 28-20
