The 2024 FCS playoff bracket has 24 teams, featuring 10 auto-bids from 10 conferences and 14 at-large bids. Sixteen teams will be seeded with the Top 8 receiving first-round byes and seeds 9-16 hosting first-round games.
How the playoff field changes and takes shape every week is fascinating. So after every weekend of games moving forward, I will predict what the bracket will look like.
Below are predictions for the seeds, auto-bids, at-large bids, the bracket, and which teams are on the bubble.
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Notes
These predictions take current playoff resumes and all future scheduled games into consideration.
This is through the eyes of the playoff committee and what I think they will do.
The seeds associated with teams won’t be the same as my Top 25 rankings. My poll ballot is ranking teams based on performances/resumes so far. This bracketology is projecting ahead.
The Field
2021-2023 Final Bracketology Accuracy: 22/24 seeds correct, 69/72 teams in the field correct
Seeds
1. Montana State
2. North Dakota State
3. South Dakota State
4. Mercer
5. Villanova
6. South Dakota
7. SEMO
8. UC Davis
9. UIW
10. Idaho
11. Chattanooga
12. Central Arkansas
13. Montana
14. William & Mary
15. Tarleton State
16. Abilene Christian
Auto-Bids
Big Sky – Montana State
Big South-OVC – SEMO
CAA – Villanova
MVFC – North Dakota State
NEC – Duquesne
Patriot – Holy Cross
Pioneer – Drake
SoCon – Mercer
Southland – UIW
UAC – Central Arkansas
At-Large Bids
Ordered from most likely to least likely to get in. Seeded teams who are not their conference’s auto-bid will be at the top.
South Dakota State (seed)
South Dakota (seed)
UC Davis (seed)
Idaho (seed)
Chattanooga (seed)
Montana (seed)
William & Mary (seed)
Tarleton State (seed)
Abilene Christian (seed)
Rhode Island
Last 4 In
North Dakota
ETSU
Western Carolina
Stephen F. Austin
Bubble Teams Left Out
Ordered from the best chance to make the bracket out of this group to the worst chance.
25. UT Martin
26. Richmond
27. McNeese
28. Northern Arizona
29. Lamar
The Bracket
The FCS playoff bracket increased its number of seeded teams from 8 to 16 this year. Seeds 1-8 get a first-round bye, and seeds 9-16 will host first-round games. First-round matchups will still be paired up based on geography. But the second round will no longer be based on regionalization. The No. 16 seed will feed into the No. 1 seed, the No. 15 seed into the No. 2 seed, and so on.
The first round is still regionalized to save on travel costs. The committee tries to utilize as many bus trips (400 miles or less) as possible while avoiding regular-season rematches.
The committee avoids conference matchups in the first round if the two teams played each other in the regular season. However, if two conference teams did not play each other during the regular season, they may be paired up in the first round. Regular-season non-conference rematches should be avoided in the first round.
If a conference has four or more teams in the bracket, the committee can add an extra flight to avoid having all teams on one side of the bracket as long as it doesn’t impact or change the seeding.
The order of seeds is not determined by regionalization.
The Explanation
This section will typically have between 1,000-2,000 words breaking down each team, their current resume, and their future games and why it has a pathway to a seed, an at-large bid, etc.
Keep in mind that this bracketology factors in future games as well. So in this instance, I’m projecting Montana State will go 12-0 to earn the No. 1 seed. And I’m projecting NDSU to win the MVFC. Just to use those two as examples.
We obviously have a lot of games left, so this is going to be fluid and move around each week. Some will say doing a bracketology in October is pointless. Those people also probably aren’t fun to hang out with in social settings. It’s an entertaining exercise to see how each week of results shapes the playoff picture. And it also gives fan bases an idea of “This is where we’re at now, this is where other teams are at to keep an eye on, this is our remaining schedule, and if we win out or lose just one more game we can get a seed in this range.”
If a team is on the bubble, this will give those fans an idea of what teams to keep an eye on and where their resume is at. Same with Top 2 seeds, Top 4 seeds, Top 8, etc.
As we get closer to Selection Sunday, I’ll dive more into details on resumes, ranked wins, strength of schedule, upcoming games, etc. to explain why I think Team A will be the No. 1 seed, Team B will be the No. 8 seed, Team C is left on the bubble, and so on.
Here’s a look at what future bracketology story breakdowns will look like.
