I caught a break last week when Kent State scored late to pull within two points of Ball State. The Golden Flashes ended up losing 37-35, but covered the spread as the Group of Five Underdog of the Week. College football betting odds had them as a seven-point underdog.
This week we’ll go back to the MAC and the “Battle of the Bricks” for my selection.
Ohio (Spread +3.5, Moneyline +145) at Miami (Ohio)
After entering the half with a 24-0 lead, Ohio nearly crumbled down the stretch against Central Michigan last week. The Bobcats survived with a 27-25 victory.
The first half looked similar to the Bobcats head coach Tim Albin-led teams that we’re used to seeing, however. The Bobcats played stout defense, and five of their six offensive drives went for 50-plus yards. They scored on four of them and fumbled in the red zone on the other.
Nobody really expected big things from Ohio this season, but the Bobcats are quietly 4-2 and 2-0 in league play. A win here will be huge for conference championship aspirations.
Miami’s offense finally made some strides last week, but the Bobcats’ defense has been pretty consistent this season. They’re allowing just 331 yards per game, which ranks second in the conference. They’re also only giving up 23.3 points per game. The RedHawks are averaging just 17.7 PPG.
Ohio running back Anthony Tyus leads the conference with 99.2 rushing yards per game and will go up against a solid RedHawks linebacking core. However, they’ll also have to handle Bobcats quarterback Parker Navarro, who leads the league in total offense with 258.8 total yards per outing, including 79 rushing YPG.
The RedHawks are led by QB Brett Gabbert, whose 231 passing YPG leads the conference, but the Bobcats have only allowed six TD passes on the season.
The underdog has won four of these last five meetings, and I like the underdog to keep things close again in this rivalry. The Over/Under is just at 44.5, meaning this is expected to be a relatively low-scoring meeting and a closer game.
FAU (+6.5, +200) at UTSA
I don’t know if there’s been a more inconsistent team this season than the Owls. They finally put together back-to-back performances to feel good about despite falling to North Texas last week. Still, it was refreshing to see some life from this program.
UTSA’s offense has struggled to find the end zone this season while FAU’s defense has been respectable. Prior to last week’s 41-37 loss, FAU hadn’t given up more than 20 points all season.
FAU is 2-1 against the spread this year as an underdog, and UTSA is 1-5 ATS, including 0-2 as a favorite.
Nevada (+3, +125) vs. Fresno State
The Wolf Pack have landed on the honorable mentions list twice already this season, and there’s good reason why. They’re 5-1 against the spread and 3-1 ATS at home.
Even though it lost to San Jose State two weeks ago, Nevada is playing great and coming off a win over Oregon State where it only threw 13 passes. The Bulldogs have been better against the pass than the run this season.
Nevada is feisty and has already been in five one-possession games this year. UNR has covered four of these last five meetings, and I like head coach Jeff Choate’s squad to continue surprising.
