The offseason is all about optimism for FCS fans. And there are multiple levels of setting expectations in this subdivision – number of wins, finish in conference standings, getting a playoff bid, getting a playoff seed, reaching a certain playoff round, etc.
Analyzing schedules plays a part in setting those expectations. And that’s what we did for the playoff teams of the past two seasons — looked at their schedule and set an over/under on regular-season wins.
NOTES:
The teams chosen below are those who made the playoffs in 2019 and the spring.
Rankings listed for this article will refer to the first Top 25 of the preseason — Athlon Sports.
The over/under is set for regular-season wins and does not include any potential playoff victories.
These are not exact predictions on how many wins each team will have. Rather, it’s a ballpark number for you to take the over or under on. Let me know on Twitter @SamHerderFCS which teams/numbers you feel strongly about taking the O/U.
UAlbany
Schedule: @ No. 2 NDSU, vs. Rhode Island, @ FBS Syracuse, @ No. 5 Delaware, @ W&M, vs. No. 16 Villanova, vs. Maine, @ Towson, vs. No. 22 UNH, vs. Morgan State, @ Stony Brook
Over/Under Wins: 6.5
Austin Peay
Schedule: @ No. 20 UTC, @ FBS Ole Miss, vs. Morehead State, @ EKU, vs. Tennessee State, vs. SEMO, @ Murray State, @ UT Martin, vs. EIU, vs. Tennessee State, vs. Tennessee Tech
Over/Under Wins: 7.5
Central Arkansas
Schedule: @ FBS Arkansas State, @ No. 25 Missouri State, vs. UAPB, vs. No. 3 SHSU, @ ACU, vs. EKU, @ Lamar, @ No. 10 Jacksonville State, vs. Texas Wesleyan, vs. SFA, @ Tarleton State
Over/Under Wins: 8.5
Central Connecticut State
Schedule: vs. Southern Connecticut State, @ Wagner, vs. No. 15 SLU, @ FBS Miami, vs. Columbia, @ Sacred Heart, vs. LIU, @ Merrimack, vs. Bryant, @ Duquesne, vs. Saint Francis
Over/Under Wins: 8.5
Davidson
Schedule: @ No. 18 VMI, vs. Shaw, vs. San Diego, @ Stetson, vs. Presbyterian, @ Butler, @ Morehead State, vs. St. Thomas, @ Dayton, vs. Drake
Over/Under Wins: 7.5
Delaware
Schedule: @ Maine, vs. Saint Francis, @ FBS Rutgers, vs. UAlbany, @ Rhode Island, @ Stony Brook, vs. No. 1 JMU, vs. Dixie State, vs. W&M, @ Richmond, vs. No. 16 Villanova
Over/Under Wins: 9.5
Eastern Washington
Schedule: @ FBS UNLV, vs. Central Washington, @ WIU, @ SUU, vs. No. 11 Montana, @ Northern Colorado, vs. Idaho, vs. No. 6 Weber, vs. No. 8 Montana State, @ No. 17 UC Davis, @ Portland State
Over/Under Wins: 7.5
Furman
Schedule: vs. NC A&T, @ Tennessee Tech, @ FBS NC State, vs. Mercer, @ Wofford, vs. The Citadel, vs. ETSU, @ No. 20 UTC, @ WCU, vs. No. 18 VMI, @ Samford
Over/Under Wins: 6.5
Holy Cross
Schedule: @ FBS UConn, vs. Merrimack, @ Yale, @ No. 12 Monmouth, vs. Harvard, vs. Georgetown, vs. Colgate, @ Lehigh, vs. Lafayette, @ Fordham, @ Bucknell
Over/Under Wins: 7.5
Illinois State
Schedule: vs. Butler, @ FBS Western Michigan, @ EIU, @ No. 9 SIU, vs. No. 25 Missouri State, vs. No. 2 NDSU, @ USD, @ WIU, vs. No. 14 UNI, @ No. 7 UND, vs. Indiana State
Over/Under Wins: 5.5
Jacksonville State
Schedule: vs. FBS UAB, @ FBS Florida State, vs. North Alabama, vs. UT Martin, @ No. 21 Kennesaw, vs. SFA, @ No. 3 SHSU, vs. No. 13 UCA, vs. ACU, @ Lamar, @ EKU
Over/Under Wins: 7.5
James Madison
Schedule: vs. Morehead State, vs. Maine, @ No. 6 Weber, @ No. 22 UNH, vs. No. 16 Villanova, @ Richmond, @ No. 5 Delaware, vs. Elon, vs. Campbell, @ W&M, vs. Towson
Over/Under Wins: 10.5
Kennesaw State
Schedule: vs. Reinhardt, @ FBS Georgia Tech, @ Wofford, vs. No. 10 Jacksonville State, @ Hampton, vs. NC A&T, @ Campbell, vs. Gardner-Webb, @ Robert Morris, @ North Alabama, vs. No. 12 Monmouth
Over/Under Wins: 7.5
Missouri State
Schedule: @ FBS Oklahoma State, vs. No. 13 UCA, vs. USD, @ Illinois State, @ YSU, vs. Indiana State, @ No. 2 NDSU, vs. No. 7 UND, @ No. 9 SIU, vs. No. 14 UNI, @ Dixie State
Over/Under Wins: 6.5
Monmouth
Schedule: @ FBS Middle Tennessee State, @ Fordham, @ Charleston Southern, vs. Holy Cross, vs. Gardner-Webb, vs. Princeton, @ Campbell, @ NC A&T, vs. North Alabama, vs. Robert Morris, @ No. 21 Kennesaw
Over/Under Wins: 8.5
Montana
Schedule: @ FBS Washington, vs. WIU, vs. Cal Poly, @ No. 19 EWU, vs. Dixie State, vs. Sac State, @ Idaho, vs. SUU, @ Northern Colorado, @ NAU, vs. No. 8 Montana State
Over/Under Wins: 9.5
Montana State
Schedule: @ FBS Wyoming, vs. Drake, vs. San Diego, @ Portland State, vs. Northern Colorado, vs. Cal Poly, @ No. 6 Weber, vs. Idaho State, @ No. 19 EWU, vs. Idaho, @ No. 11 Montana
Over/Under Wins: 8.5
Nicholls
Schedule: @ FBS Memphis, @ FBS Louisiana, vs. North Alabama, vs. HBU, vs. No. 15 SLU, @ UIW, @ HBU, vs. Northwestern State, @ McNeese, vs. UIW, @ No. 15 SLU
Over/Under Wins: 7.5
North Dakota
Schedule: @ Idaho State, @ FBS Utah State, vs. Drake, vs. No. 2 NDSU, @ USD, @ No. 9 SIU, vs. WIU, @ No. 25 Missouri State, vs. YSU, vs. Illinois State, @ No. 4 SDSU
Over/Under Wins: 7.5
North Dakota State
Schedule: vs. UAlbany, vs. Valpo, @ Towson, @ No. 7 UND, vs. No. 14 UNI, @ Illinois State, vs. No. 25 Missouri State, vs. Indiana State, @ No. 4 SDSU, @ YSU, vs. USD
Over/Under Wins: 9.5
Northern Iowa
Schedule: @ FBS Iowa State, @ Sac State, vs. St. Thomas, vs. YSU, @ No. 2 NDSU, vs. USD, @ No. 4 SDSU, vs. No. 9 SIU, @ Illinois State, @ No. 25 Missouri State, vs. WIU
Over/Under Wins: 6.5
Sacramento State
Schedule: @ Dixie State, vs. No. 14 UNI, @ FBS Cal, @ Idaho State, vs. SUU, @ No. 11 Montana, vs. NAU, @ Northern Colorado, vs. Cal Poly, vs. Portland State, @ No. 17 UC Davis
Over/Under Wins: 7.5
Sacred Heart
Schedule: vs. Bucknell, @ Bryant, vs. Morgan State, @ Dartmouth, @ Howard, vs. Merrimack, vs. CCSU, vs. Duquesne, @ Saint Francis, vs. Wagner, @ LIU
Over/Under Wins: 8.5
Sam Houston
Schedule: @ NAU, vs. SEMO, @ No. 13 UCA, vs. SFA, vs. Lamar, vs. No. 10 Jacksonville State, @ Tarleton, vs. Dixie State, vs. EKU, @ ACU
Over/Under Wins: 9.5
San Diego
Schedule: vs. Cal Poly, vs. No. 17 UC Davis, @ No. 8 Montana State, @ Davidson, vs. St. Thomas, @ Butler, vs. Drake, @ Presbyterian, vs. Valpo, vs. Morehead State, @ Stetson
Over/Under Wins: 7.5
SEMO
Schedule: vs. No. 9 SIU, @ No. 3 SHSU, @ FBS Missouri, vs. Tennessee State, @ Tennessee Tech, @ No. 23 APSU, vs. Murray State, @ UT Martin, vs. EIU, @ Murray State, vs. UT Martin
Over/Under Wins: 6.5
South Dakota State
Schedule: @ FBS Colorado State, vs. Lindenwood, @ Indiana State, vs. Dixie State, vs. No. 9 SIU, @ WIU, vs. No. 14 UNI, @ YSU, vs. No. 2 NDSU, @ USD, vs. No. 7 UND
Over/Under Wins: 8.5
Southeastern Louisiana
Schedule: vs. North Alabama, @ FBS Louisiana Tech, @ CCSU, vs. Northwestern State, @ McNeese, @ No. 24 Nicholls, vs. Houston Baptist, @ Northwestern State, vs. McNeese, @ UIW, vs. No. 24 Nicholls
Over/Under Wins: 7.5
Southern Illinois
Schedule: @ SEMO, @ FBS Kansas State, vs. Dayton, vs. Illinois State, @ WIU, @ No. 4 SDSU, vs. No. 7 UND, @ No. 14 UNI, vs. No. 25 Missouri State, @ Indiana State, vs. YSU
Over/Under Wins: 7.5
Villanova
Schedule: @ Lehigh, vs. Bucknell, vs. Richmond, @ FBS Penn State, @ No. 1 JMU, @ UAlbany, vs. Rhode Island, vs. W&M, @ Elon, vs. Stony Brook, @ No. 5 Delaware
Over/Under Wins: 7.5
VMI
Schedule: vs. Davidson, @ FBS Kent State, @ Cornell, vs. Wofford, @ The Citadel, vs. No. 20 UTC, @ Mercer, vs. Samford, @ ETSU, @ Furman, vs. WCU
Over/Under Wins: 7.5
Weber State
Schedule: @ FBS Utah, @ Dixie State, vs. No. 1 JMU, vs. No. 17 UC Davis, @ Cal Poly, vs. No. 8 Montana State, @ No. 19 EWU, @ Idaho State, vs. Portland State, @ SUU, vs. Northern Colorado
Over/Under Wins: 8.5
Wofford
Schedule: @ Elon, vs. No. 21 Kennesaw, @ No. 18 VMI, @ ETSU, vs. Furman, vs. Samford, @ Mercer, vs. WCU, vs. No. 20 UTC, @ The Citadel, @ FBS North Carolina
Over/Under Wins: 5.5
NEXT: 2021 FCS Jersey Countdown
