For the second consecutive week, our Group of Five Underdog cashed with Rice covering as five-point dogs in a 17-14 loss to Florida Atlantic. This week’s slate features a number of contests that have a lot on the line as teams are getting into the thick of conference play.
That means there’s some value to be found. Hopefully, it lies here with this week’s underdog that includes college football betting odds via BetMGM:
Arkansas State (spread: +6.5, moneyline +200) at Louisiana
On the surface, Louisiana might look like it can cover here, but dig a little deeper and a touchdown against the Red Wolves seems like a lot to pull the trigger on.
Heck, the Red Wolves are even ranked above the Cajuns in this week’s Sun Belt Power Poll.
Arkansas State held the lead for almost the entire game last week before Southern Miss scored two touchdowns in the final 9 minutes, 31 seconds to pull away with the 20-19 victory. The Red Wolves are only 2-5 this year and have lost five of their last six games, but what’s important is they’re 6-1 against the spread. Great teams cover?
Louisiana has the No. 2 scoring defense in the Sun Belt (19.17 PPG), but I’ll put my faith in James Blackman and Co. to keep it close against a team that’s scored more than 24 points just once this season. I like the gritty Red Wolves to come out hungry in what could easily be a low-scoring affair, which usually bodes well for the underdog.
Honorable mentions
Louisiana-Monroe (spread +7, moneyline +220) at Army
The one team that Arkansas State has beaten in the previous six weeks is this LA-Monroe team. Like the Red Wolves, though, the Warhawks are a team that just doesn’t seem to go away. That’s when late scores occur and backdoors happen. This was the case last week against South Alabama when the Warhawks scored two fourth-quarter touchdowns to pull the game within one possession. I’m not saying this is going to be another backdoor cover, but LA-Monroe played Coastal Carolina tight the week before and went into the half leading the Jaguars last week. Army isn’t on quite the level as either of those teams.
Texas State (spread +2.5, moneyline +110) vs. Southern Miss
I guess this should just be called the Sun Belt Underdogs of the Week as we feature another team from the league. It could be that this conference is on the rise and the weekly competitive games prove the quality of the conference. This line could become a pick ’em by Saturday morning, but as it stands right now, the Bobcats are the slight underdogs after nearly beating Troy. The Trojans needed a fourth-quarter, go-ahead touchdown to survive the upset. Texas State is 3-0 ATS at the house.
Hawaii (spread +5, moneyline +165) at Colorado State
Don’t look now but the Rainbow Warriors have covered in four of their last five games and are right in the middle of the standings in the dreadful Mountain West. It’s certainly a shakeup after being beaten by New Mexico State nearly a month ago. This is more of a fade of CSU than anything, but Hawaii is certainly trending upward and can maybe leave Fort Collins with a win or at least keep it within a couple of points here.
Side note: For the third consecutive week, fading Central Michigan sounds like a good idea. The Chippewas haven’t shown much this year, but seem to still be getting a decent amount of love from bookmakers and are 6.5-point favorites this week against conference foe Bowling Green. CMU barely survived Akron last week, winning on a returned fumble for a score in the final minutes of the game. The turnover came on a mishandled handoff when the Zips looked like they were going to win.
