Last week, I disliked the Group of Five schedule. Last week lacked high-powered matchups. This week’s schedule feels like the complete opposite, and I was nearly salivating looking over this weekend’s slate of Group of Five games.
We have important conference games in the American, C-USA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt. For this week’s must-watch list, I’ve included one game from every Group of Five conference, and I’ve included a few games in an honorable mention section. There are plenty more than five Group of Five games that deserve your attention this week.
As a reminder, I look at college football betting odds when putting this list together, as the odds help me gauge the expected competitiveness of certain games.
5. Toledo at Buffalo
The only two MAC teams yet to lose a conference game square off Saturday afternoon in Buffalo. The Rockets are favored by just under a touchdown, but the Bulls have home-field advantage. Buffalo is red hot, having won four in a row after starting the season 0-3. Toledo has reeled off three consecutive wins of its own. These two teams could meet again later this season in the MAC title game. Even if they don’t, this is one of the best matchups of the MAC season.
4. North Texas at UTSA
Another matchup of a conference’s only two unbeaten teams! This C-USA matchup is huge, and a win puts UTSA in an ideal position to win the conference crown. After this weekend, the Roadrunners receive a bye week before a challenging road game at UAB. UTSA is favored by 9.5 points in this game, and the over/under sits near 70.
3. Boise State at Air Force
Boise State’s demise was greatly overhyped earlier this season. The Broncos are really solid. Air Force hasn’t been as consistent as I expected entering the season, but the Falcons are still a quality football team. This game is critical in the Mountain West’s Mountain Division, as another conference loss likely takes Air Force out of contention to win the division. A win for the Falcons gives them bowl eligibility, though. This game should be fun, and Air Force is a 3.5-point favorite.
2. Troy vs. South Alabama
Earlier this season, the Sun Belt East drew plenty of headlines for notable achievements/upsets by App State, Georgia Southern, Old Dominion, Marshall, and James Madison. Don’t sleep on the top of the Sun Belt West, however, as Troy and South Alabama (-3) are tremendous Group of Five teams. Each of these teams are legitimate threats to win the Sun Belt title game later this season.
1. Cincinnati at SMU
Cincinnati currently sits in position to earn the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six bowl spot, but the Bearcats don’t have an easy schedule ahead of them. Games with SMU, UCF, ECU, and Tulane remain on the team’s regular-season schedule. As for SMU, the Mustangs are just 3-3 overall, but a win Saturday would quickly turn the tide of their somewhat disappointing season. Cincinnati is favored by a field goal.
Honorable mentions: Memphis at No. 25 Tulane, UCF at ECU, UAB at Western Kentucky, Marshall at JMU
The AAC slate this weekend is phenomenal, with multiple meaningful games. I think Memphis (+7) and ECU (+5) are capable of upsetting their Saturday opponents, which could lead to chaos in the AAC. UAB-Western Kentucky (-2.5) features a pair of top contenders in C-USA, and Marshall at JMU (-13.5) features a pair of programs expected to compete for SBC East titles for years to come.
Bennett Conlin is a college football contributor for HERO Sports, and he works full-time covering sports betting industry news and legislation for Sports Handle and US Bets.
