New Mexico has proven to be one of the hardest places to win in the FBS, with the program failing to post a winning season since 2016.
A change at the top, however, should have New Mexico fans eager for the future. Bronco Mendenhall, with a plethora of experience building teams into competitive programs, is the Lobos’ new head coach.
Mendenhall won consistently at BYU before rebuilding Virginia into a competitive ACC team. Since his brief retirement, the Cavaliers have taken a major drop. If anyone can win at New Mexico and build a program that does more with less, it’ll be Mendenhall.
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New Mexico Football’s Mountain West Title Odds
New Mexico’s odds to win the Mountain West are +30000, via BetMGM.
New Mexico Football’s Betting Odds & Win Total Over/Under
New Mexico’s win total Over/Under is 2.5, with Under 2.5 at -155 and Over 2.5 at +130.
New Mexico Football’s 2024 Schedule
8/24 vs. Montana State
8/31 at Arizona
9/14 at Auburn
9/21 vs. Fresno State
9/28 at New Mexico State
10/12 vs. Air Force
10/19 at Utah State
10/26 at Colorado State
11/2 vs. Wyoming
11/9 at San Diego State
11/16 vs. Washington State
11/30 at Hawaii
Bold indicates Mountain West contests
Key New Mexico Football Returners
2023 Mountain West Honorable Mention
WR Caleb Medford
A Major Rebuild Expected For New Mexico Football
Mendenhall rebuilt Virginia into a competent team, but the building process took time. UVA went 2-10 in his first season, opening the year with a loss to an FCS program.
Mendenhall’s rebuilding effort in New Mexico could follow a similar trend, with the Lobos opening the season against what’s expected to be one of the best FCS teams in the country in Montana State. There’s not an obvious win on New Mexico’s schedule.
Fortunately for New Mexico, returning quarterback Devon Dampier is a unique athlete with rushing and passing ability. He fits well into offensive coordinator Jason Beck’s scheme, which thrives with athletic quarterbacks. Dampier is only a sophomore, which should give fans faith the offense could make major strides in the next three seasons.
Unfortunately for New Mexico, there’s not a ton of returning talent and it’s the clear pick to finish last in the Mountain West. Still, Mendenhall’s track record suggests fans should be optimistic. While 2024 might not be a bowl season, Mendenhall knows how to gradually build a team into a more consistent winner.
Part of the process of improving a program is finding players who fit the culture and scheme, which could take Mendenhall and his staff multiple seasons.
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2024 New Mexico Football Season Prediction
I’d lean toward taking the Under for New Mexico’s season-long win total bet, as a winless season isn’t completely out of the question. The Lobos play two Power Four teams, Washington State, and they don’t have an FCS cakewalk. There’s not a single guaranteed win on the schedule.
Major questions along the offensive line, which figures to be transfer heavy, give me pause about the unit’s ability to consistently move the ball. A potential lack of chemistry along the front could derail the offense.
Defensively, the Lobos added USC transfer De’Jon Benton at defensive tackle. He flashed at times for the Trojans in 2023 and figures to earn playing time for New Mexico. Perhaps he could spearhead a defense that allowed a woeful 35.1 points per game last season. The Lobos will need major improvement on defense.
For optimistic fans, there’s still potential for three or more wins in 2024. Dampier is an intriguing quarterback, and Beck developed UVA’s dual-threat players like Bryce Perkins and Brennan Armstrong into elite ACC signal callers. If Dampier exceeds expectations and tests defenses with his arm and legs, New Mexico could prove to be an irritating Mountain West opponent.
Additionally, access to an active transfer portal could speed up the process of a traditional Mendenhall rebuild. The ease of roster turnover in modern college football works in Mendenhall’s favor as he looks to completely overhaul a team’s culture.
It’s likely going to be a long season for the Lobos, but the long-term future looks bright given Mendenhall’s hiring.
