Troy Calhoun knows how to win games. The longtime Air Force head coach has led the Falcons to four bowl appearances since 2019, tallying three 10-win seasons during that span.
Calhoun’s Falcons are bowl-game beasts, winning five bowl games in a row, including a 31-21 win over red-hot James Madison last December. Prior to a series of injuries to key players, Air Force was 8-0 in 2023 and poised to earn the Group of Five’s berth in a New Year’s Six bowl game. The Falcons, when healthy, were undoubtedly one of the top G5 teams in the country last fall.
Entering 2024, it’s hard to bet against Calhoun leading the Falcons to a strong season, but they lost a ton of production. Quarterback Zac Larrier is gone, as are all of last year’s offensive line starters. Defensively, replacing linebacker Bo Richter and safety Trey Taylor is a significant undertaking.
Calhoun’s track record speaks for itself, but Air Force has its work cut out for it in 2024 given the roster changes.
Air Force Football’s Mountain West Title Odds
Air Force’s odds to win the Mountain West are +1200, via BetMGM.
Air Force Football’s Betting Odds & Over/Under Win Total
Air Force’s win total Over/Under is 6.5, with Under 6.5 at +110 and Over 6.5 at -130.
Air Force Football’s 2024 Schedule
8/31 vs. Merrimack
9/7 vs. San Jose State
9/14 at Baylor
9/28 at Wyoming
10/5 vs. Navy
10/12 at New Mexico
10/19 vs. Colorado State
11/2 at Army
11/9 vs. Fresno State
11/16 vs. Oregon State
11/23 at Nevada
11/30 at San Diego State
Bold indicates Mountain West contests
Key Air Force Football Returners
2023 Mountain West Honorable Mention
K Matthew Dapore
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Favorable Schedule Helps Air Force Football
Losing so many key players will be a challenge for Air Force, which was an elite Group of Five team in 2023. The program’s unique offensive style presents a challenge for all opponents, and its defense has been stellar in recent seasons.
The return of defensive lineman Payton Zdroik and cornerback Jamari Bellamy help bolster a defense capable of being among the top in the Mountain West. If the offense – with a new quarterback and offensive linemen – meshes well, there’s still potential for the Falcons to compete for the conference title.
Helping Air Force’s conference championship dreams is a favorable schedule. The Falcons avoid both Boise State and UNLV in league play, and road games with Nevada and New Mexico are extremely winnable.
Consecutive road games against Baylor and Wyoming – Air Force has a bye between the games – will provide tough September tests, but the schedule is manageable.
2024 Air Force Football Season Prediction
I’d lean toward taking Air Force Over 6.5 wins, given the schedule. It’s really, really hard to bet against a Calhoun-led Air Force team.
Air Force could start the season with a couple losses, especially with September road games against Baylor and Wyoming. From October on, however, every game feels winnable. Facing Fresno State and Oregon State at home gives the Falcons a boost schedule wise, and road trips to New Mexico and Nevada are quite doable.
If Air Force can manage significant roster turnover and quickly find offensive continuity, the Falcons could threaten for the Mountain West title. If the offense sputters, Air Force should still be in the mix to make a bowl game.
