Week 6 of the 2024 FCS season features four matchups between Top 25 teams.
Let’s predict some scores.
Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 32-11
2023 Record: 96-42
Week 6 Top 5 Games
No. 7 North Dakota at No. 2 North Dakota State
Perhaps the biggest regular-season win in the last few years that reverberated the most across the FCS was when UND walloped NDSU 49-24 last fall. The UND win/NDSU loss itself maybe wasn’t a surprise, but how the Fighting Hawks won caused many around the FCS to shovel dirt on the Bison dynasty.
But maybe the shine of that win dimmed for UND after the Hawks went flat from there, exiting the playoffs in the first round at home while the Bison rebounded just fine and made a run to the semifinals.
UND now looks to show that it wasn’t a one-time performance. That it’s here as an FCS contender and its No. 7 ranking is deserved. NDSU eyes revenge for that embarrassing loss, to silence any doubters after an up-and-down defensive non-conference slate, and to show this team is locked and loaded for another national title.
It’s the most intriguing FCS vs. FCS game so far this season.
UND’s rushing attack is legit behind a new-look offensive line and running backs Isaiah Smith, Gaven Ziebarth, and Sawyer Seidl. And Simon Romfo has shown he can hit a nice deep ball to Bo Belquist (24 catches for 478 yards and 5 TDs) to loosen up the defense. We’ll see if NDSU can string together back-to-back strong defensive performances after some struggles in the non-conference.
Cam Miller (completing 78.3% of his passes for 1,143 yards, nine touchdowns, and zero interceptions, plus 190 rushing yards and five TDs) and the NDSU offense are a smooth operation, executing at a high level. In a game with limited possessions, I’m not sure UND will be able to garner enough stops. It’s hard to see the Hawks going into the Fargodome and getting a W as the sold-out crowd may be a bit more juiced up for this one.
Prediction: NDSU 35-24
No. 18 Illinois State at No. 19 Southern Illinois
Both teams are beat up, and both teams really need a win.
SIU is on a two-game losing streak, losing by 17 points to SEMO and by 29 at South Dakota. The Salukis are now 2-3 overall and 2-2 vs. the FCS. ISU is 3-2 overall and 3-1 vs. the FCS, losing 42-10 last week vs. NDSU.
Last week at this time, I was impressed with Illinois State’s 31-7 win over Eastern Illinois, a team that finished 8-3 last year and returned most of its starters. That win hasn’t aged well after EIU lost to Lindenwood.
Hunter Simmons has stepped in as SIU’s starting QB due to injury. He’s played well, throwing for 341 yards vs. SEMO and 306 yards vs. USD. But SIU’s rushing attack just can’t get going, running for 60 yards on 25 attempts against USD and 62 yards on 30 attempts against SEMO.
Illinois State allows 244 passing yards per game, ranking No. 92 in the FCS. SIU gets back in the win column at home behind the arm of Simmons.
Prediction: SIU 28-21
No. 5 Central Arkansas at No. 16 Abilene Christian
UCA at ACU in a UAC matchup.
Central Arkansas continues to look like this year’s southern team that can challenge the Midwest powers. The Bears are 4-1 overall and should be 5-0 with an FBS win. They have a Top 1 or 2 FCS offensive player in running back ShunDerrick Powell — 91 rushes for 810 yards and 10 touchdowns while adding 12 catches for 195 yards and two touchdowns. And they have the best defensive player in the FCS in NFL Draft prospect David Walker — 22 tackles, 10.5 TFLs, 6.5 sacks, four quarterback hurries, and three pass breakups.
Abilene Christian has had a nice rise into the rankings. The Wildcats are still looking for a signature win, though. They have beaten West Georgia, Northern Colorado, and Utah Tech. ACU is on the Top 25 radar due to its overtime loss to FBS Texas Tech and its near comeback win over Top 5 Idaho. Maverick McIvor is playing well, throwing for 1,100 yards, eight touchdowns, and two interceptions in four games.
We could see a good amount of points here. But I trust Central Arkansas to get more stops defensively for a road win.
Prediction: Central Arkansas 42-31
No. 25 Northern Arizona at No. 10 Idaho
Make that back-to-back FBS games and now four-straight ranked FCS opponents for Idaho. NAU slides into the Top 25 after knocking off No. 10 Sacramento State 34-16.
Idaho looks to rebound from its first FCS loss of the season. Quarterback Jack Wagner is expected to play after leaving the UC Davis game, reaggravating his shoulder injury.
NAU has been Jekyll and Hyde in recent years. The Lumberjacks have pulled some big upsets. They also haven’t been consistently good. A week before beating No. 10 Sac State, they lost 38-14 to No. 15 UIW.
NAU’s defense has been playing tough, making this a challenge for an Idaho offense that has stalled out at times and has been hot during other points in games. Just its second home game in six weeks and it being Idaho’s Homecoming, the Vandals get back on track with its third ranked win.
Prediction: Idaho 28-17
Chattanooga at No. 23 ETSU
ETSU has turned into America’s team. Not only did the Bucs have casual FCS fans rooting for them in their near win over No. 2 NDSU, but their story was spread across the country of last week’s harrowing travel to The Citadel.
They look to add another quality win this week against Chattanooga, who is just outside of the Top 25. The Mocs may be 1-3, but two of those losses are against FBS opponents (including a three-point loss to Georgia State). And the third loss is a one-score game to Mercer, who is now ranked No. 11.
ETSU has it rolling right now. And it’s hard to see it stopping at home. The defense, led by Ray Coney and Chris Hope, looks to slow down what can be an explosive Chattanooga offense. Meanwhile, the offensive ground game led by Bryson Irby (480 yards, 5 TDs) can help control the time of possession.
Prediction: ETSU 28-24
More FCS Predictions
Weber State at No. 8 Montana
Montana’s offense is legit, scoring 46 and 52 points in the last two games. But its defense is leaky, allowing 35 and 49 points in those contests. Weber’s offense doesn’t have quite the explosiveness of Western Carolina or Eastern Washington, and it has dropped two games to Southland opponents who were unranked at the time. Montana improves to 5-1 as things start to click defensively. The struggles may be more Xs and Os than Jimmys and Joes.
Prediction: Montana 35-21
No. 6 Villanova at Stony Brook
How about Stony Brook? The Seawolves are 4-1 overall and 4-0 vs. the FCS. They are still searching for a signature win, though. Stonehill, Fordham, Campbell, and Morgan State aren’t needle-movers. Villanova is also 4-1 overall and 4-0 vs. the FCS. It is also lacking a signature performance that stamps itself as a Top 6 FCS team. I don’t see Stony Brook generating enough offense to get a win here. Nova has allowed 17, 3, 13, and 10 points against FCS opponents. If the offense can finish drives, the Wildcats are a scary, complete team.
Prediction: Villanova 28-17
No. 1 South Dakota State at Northern Iowa
Both teams are coming off of bye weeks. We’ll see what personnel changes and adjustments they make. The Panthers are 2-2 overall with two FBS losses. The two wins are over non-scholarship Pioneer teams, including an iffy 17-10 win at St. Thomas, who is 1-3 with a D2 loss. SDSU’s defense and run game looked strong in the non-conference. The passing attack was choppy, though. Playing at UNI is always a challenge, but I expect a clean SDSU performance and win. The Jackrabbits look to be pretty healthy, getting multiple key players back from injury after the bye.
Prediction: SDSU 35-17
No. 13 SEMO at Eastern Illinois
EIU’s loss to Lindenwood last week is a concern, especially for a veteran team. SEMO, meanwhile, has it rolling with a 4-1 record and a 4-0 mark vs. the FCS. Paxton DeLaurent continues to play at a high level, throwing for 1,305 yards, 13 touchdowns, and three interceptions. SEMO remains undefeated against FCS competition.
Prediction: SEMO 38-21
