Florida State has already dug itself in a huge hole with two opening losses, and realistically, the only way the Seminoles can make the College Football Playoff is if they win the ACC title. FSU is already 0-2 in conference play, so winning the ACC would be a major uphill battle.
Since Florida State has struggled, this game is actually more of a must-win for Memphis. The top ranked Group of Five champion via the CFP selection committee will earn one of the 12 playoff berths. If Memphis loses to a team that has struggled mightily out of the gate, it could take the Tigers down a peg, even if they win the AAC.
Memphis-Florida State How to Watch
The Memphis vs. Florida State game will be televised at noon ET Saturday on ESPN.
Memphis-Florida State Betting Line
Florida State -5.5
Over/Under: 52
Memphis-Florida State Coaches
Memphis: Ryan Silverfield (33-18)
Florida State: Mike Norvell (31-19 at Florida State, 69-35 overall)
Last Meeting: Nov. 17, 1990; Florida State won 35-3 at home. Florida State leads the overall series, which began in 1959, 10-7-1.
Why This Memphis vs. Florida State Game Is Important
After losing 24-21 to Georgia Tech in Dublin and 28-13 to Boston College at home, Florida State simply needs a win. Florida State was picked to successfully defend its Atlantic Coast Conference title in the ACC preseason media poll. The Seminoles have been one of the major early-season disappointments in college football.
For Memphis to prove playoff worthy, the Tigers earning a win over an ACC team, even a struggling one at that, will be important for its resume.
Memphis-Florida State Preview
For Memphis
The Tigers have yet to be challenged in two home games, opening with a 40-0 win over North Alabama and earning this past week’s 38-17 victory over Troy. Fourth-year starting quarterback Seth Henigan took what the defense gave him against Troy and didn’t try to force the issue. Henigan completed 20 of 32 passes for 161 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions.
Henigan has enjoyed a storied career at Memphis. With the Tigers, he has completed 64% of his passes for 10,835 yards, 80 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions.
Against Troy, Memphis rushed for 211 yards and four touchdowns, led by Mario Anderson (17 carries for 125 yards and two scores). Linebacker Elijah Herring led the defense with eight tackles, including a sack.
For Florida State
Even though Florida State lost six players who were drafted in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft, the Seminoles were expected to reload with several key transfers.
Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, who had previous stints at Clemson and Oregon State, has completed 58% of his passes for 465 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Uiagalelei has also not been a factor in the running game.
And what has hurt Florida State is the ground game. The Seminoles are averaging just 2.5 yards per carry. The leading receiver is Ja’Khi Douglas, who has eight receptions for 121 yards.
On defense, the pass rush has not hit its stride with only three sacks in two games. What has also been alarming is that the Seminoles have given up 226.5 rushing yards per game, which is 122nd nationally. Teams are averaging 5.1 yards per carry against the Seminoles.
Defensive back Shyheim Brown is FSU’s leading tacker with 21.
Memphis vs. Florida State Prediction
I like taking Memphis and the points.
It won’t be easy because Florida State is desperate to turn its season around. Plus, the Seminoles would have had 11 full days off, so they are going to be well rested. Still, Memphis has had high expectations and rightly so. While Henigan gives the Tigers the edge at quarterback, the key will actually be their ability to run the ball. FSU hasn’t shown it can stop the run.
Memphis is averaging 4.9 yards per carry, and if the Tigers can sustain that number, they should be very competitive with Florida State. Even with the bad first two games by FSU, nobody expects an easy contest against the Seminoles. Yet Memphis will get a chance to show why the Tigers were made a prohibitive favorite in the preseason AAC media poll.
Norvell, who was Memphis’ head coach for four years before coming to FSU prior to the 2020 season, understands a win over a well-respected team such as the Tigers could help turn the season around. Memphis, on the other hand, is looking to keep rolling.
Looking for a key stat? Try third-down conversions. FSU has been just 8 for 26 (30.77%). Memphis is 10 for 19 (52.63%). If these numbers hold up, it would bode very well for the Tigers.
