Well, here we are, voting again. Seems like a theme this year, eh?
Once again, we have a top-heavy situation with the Missouri Valley Football Conference and the Big Sky Conference dominating the FCS picture. Let’s face it, recent history has proven that these two leagues will occupy a majority of the first-round bye seeds come Thanksgiving time, and there’s no reason to believe that trend will end now. Remember, 16 teams will be seeded this year – which is up from eight previously – but only that old-school top eight still get the coveted first-round bye.
Let’s face it, the teams that finish around 5th, 6th, or 7th in the FCS but may actually be able to win most of the FCS conferences. The FCS hierarchy is as well-defined as it has ever been – that’s not stretching the truth, it’s reality.
Now – putting the top teams in order on an FCS preseason ballot? Yeah, not easy – but this is how I see it, and will use this as a base to set up my regular season votes after Week Zero/Week One:
NO. 1 – SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
WHY?: This isn’t about taking the “easy route” when it comes to picking a No. 1 team, because this season is nothing like last season – when SDSU was loaded going into 2023 and never missed a beat. This year I could see one of the Montana schools or North Dakota State being in the No. 1 spot. There are going to be a bunch of new starters on offense with the defense mostly returning – but it’s not solely about the whole “returning starters” data points.
See, SDSU has gotten to that point NDSU has enjoyed in recent years: It has that thing that is rare in the FCS ranks. It’s called depth. The Jackrabbits had weapons on offense that may not have been official starters in 2023, but when they got their chance to shine, they blew up in a good way. And of course, you have the best quarterback in the FCS nation returning in Mark Gronowski. The opening game at Oklahoma State will be fascinating, and then we’ll see how dominant this program is – even when replacing some top talent.
NO. 2 – MONTANA
WHY?: The thing I like about Montana being strong is that the FCS needs programs like these to be dominant. When the Griz were struggling several years ago, it knocked the equilibrium of the FCS off a little bit. The Griz have become a machine, and they return 16 starters. The offensive line is really, really good and then there’s Junior Bergen, the most electrifying player in the FCS and it’s not even close. The schedule is perfect for Montana to make a splash, though the hardest Big Sky game will be on the road against – you guessed it – their hated in-state rivals in Bozeman. The Griz will once again be national title contenders, but they have to avoid slip-ups like the head-scratching loss to Northern Arizona early last year.
NO. 3 – MONTANA STATE
WHY?: Montana State has 23 players back in its senior class, headed up by dynamic quarterback Tommy Mellott – who is clearly one of the top signal callers in the FCS universe when he’s healthy. The Bobcats bring back 16 total starters and three more on special teams, with FBS-level talent at all of those positions.
Don’t be surprised if MSU goes on the road in week one and knocks off FBS New Mexico, and then keep in mind that while the ‘Cats have one of the tougher Big Sky slates due to schedule rotation, it does have Idaho, Sacramento State and of course Montana at home, while the toughest road trip should be at UC Davis. Because of that schedule, MSU can afford a slip-up once or maybe even twice and still be a high seed, especially if it has an FBS win in week one. The truth is, the top four are interchangeable on this ballot and a case could easily be made for the ‘Cats at No. 1.
NO. 4 – NORTH DAKOTA STATE
WHY?: Last year was a blip, who are we kidding? The Bison won 11 games but had ups and downs. Well, now you have two versatile quarterbacks back in Cam Miller and Cole Payton who can hurt opponents in multiple ways. You have the patented offensive line that seems like it can move the next guy on the depth chart up and still continue its success, year in and year out. The offensive skill positions look stout and the defense looks solid, though the secondary could use some new names to step up. Overall, this just feels like a bounce-back year after an un-NDSU-like 2023 season (four losses).
NO. 5 – SOUTH DAKOTA
WHY?: The Coyotes really looked good last year and turned a lot of heads when they knocked off North Dakota State early on. With 13 starters back – eight being on that high-powered offense – USD is going to be good once again and is one of those rare FCS teams that could bust into that top-four realm that seems like it hasn’t budged since COVID. Quarterback Aidan Bouman doesn’t get the respect he deserves, but he will this year. And that secondary? Wow. South Dakota may ruin the year of one of the above. Stay tuned.
NO. 6 – IDAHO
WHY?: Even though the Vandals open with trips to Oregon and Wyoming and could realistically end up 0-2 entering FCS play, they shouldn’t drop out of the top 10. The home slate looks like a realistic 4-0 run, while the road trips are noticeably more difficult with Montana State and UC Davis – but Idaho avoids Montana and Sacramento State thanks to schedule rotation. There are some questions (like QB), but nine transfers could help with those questions – and the defense should be very strong.
NO. 7 – VILLANOVA
WHY?: For now, the Wildcats are the lone team outside of the MVFC or Big Sky that I feel comfortable putting in that special Top 8 (translation – will get a first-round playoff bye in 2024). Nobody gave South Dakota State a tougher time in the 2023 postseason than Villanova – not even Montana in the final. Villanova looks gnarly again.
NO. 8 – UC DAVIS
WHY?: Last year, when Lan Larison was in the backfield, UC Davis was one of the top teams in the Big Sky. But when he got injured, it got tough for the Aggies. Well, he’s back again, and in fact – the entire starting 11 on offense is intact, along with 8 starters back on defense. With 19 total starters returning, this program returns more of the lineup than any other serious national title contender – and even though there was a coaching change, it was a smooth one.
RELATED: FCS Preview Central
FROM NO. 9 TO NO. 15
9. Sacramento State
10. UAlbany
11. Southern Illinois
12. Richmond
13. Illinois State
14. Youngstown State
15. William & Mary
WHY?: You’ll see a trend here with MVFC, Big Sky, and CAA teams mentioned. UAlbany had its best season ever and has 13 starters back from its 11-4 team last year. Sacramento State has stud QB Kaiden Bennett and 9 total starters back on offense, but the defense will have new names. William & Mary should have one of the – if not the – best offenses in the CAA, while Richmond has 15 starters back and a conducive CAA schedule for success. Honestly, all of these teams could jump into that No. 5 to No. 8 range with a strong showing in 2024.
FROM NO. 16 TO NO. 20
16. Central Arkansas
17. Weber State
18. Western Carolina
19. Lafayette
20. Elon
WHY?: Central Arkansas is intriguing. The Bears didn’t make the playoffs last year at 7-4, but they have the best RB tandem in the FCS back, its QB back, and some great talent on defense. The teams from No. 17 to No. 20 have strong points and also some questions – but should be pretty good.
FROM NO. 21 TO NO. 25
21. Eastern Illinois
22. Chattanooga
23. Nicholls
24. Incarnate Word
25. UT Martin
WHY?: Once you hit this range, there are teams that could be just outside this picture that easily could be put here, like Tarleton, Delaware would be but is not eligible to be voted, another team from a loaded Patriot League like Holy Cross or Fordham, or maybe a team like Mercer or somewhat rebuilding Furman out of the SoCon. Keep an eye on Eastern Illinois, which added one of the top transfer classes in the FCS.
