Holy smokes!
Last week’s Group of Five Underdog of the Week didn’t pan out well. Wyoming just didn’t show up to play, to say the least. An early pick-six from Arizona State rattled the Cowboys, and they were never able to recover. It was an unfortunate performance from a team many thought would give the Sun Devils a run for their money.
Nonetheless, we must move on and hope this week’s selection is actually competitive. Here’s this week’s Group of Five Underdog of the Week — featuring college football betting odds via BetMGM.
App State (Spread +18, Moneyline +625) At Clemson
The Mountaineers haven’t lost to a Power Four program by more than a touchdown since 2017 when they fell to Georgia 31-10. That Bulldogs team went on to play for a national championship.
Since then, App State has covered the spread in each of its six meetings against P4 programs. In the Shawn Clark era, that includes a two-point loss to Miami (2021), a 17-14 win over Texas A&M (2022), and a 40-34 double overtime loss to North Carolina last year. Miami was ranked No. 22 and UNC was ranked No. 14.
This may not seem like the best time to bet against the Tigers as they’re definitely out to prove themselves, and Dabo Swinney has to be tired of taking all of the heat he’s been getting. The Tigers got beat 34-3 by Georgia last week and fell 11 spots to No. 25 in the AP poll. I’m sure they’re eager to play in Death Valley. They have won 20 straight home openers.
The Mountaineers are 5-2-1 as a road underdog under Clark. App State opened as a 20-point underdog and was bet down as far as 16.5 at one point.
I’m not saying the Mountaineers are going to go on the road and win this one, but I think they will be competitive. They need to be to help their College Football Playoff chances. This is an opportunity to prove that they can compete with CFP caliber programs (if Clemson is still considered that) and they need to keep it close for that purpose. I assume App State has a lot under that hat they didn’t show against East Tennessee State which will be on display this week and give us a better glimpse of what should be a prolific offense.
The Mountaineers didn’t play all that great in last week’s win. With higher stakes, they should be more dialed in.
Honorable Mentions
Marshall (+20.5, +900) At Virginia Tech
There’s no doubt the Hokies will be looking to avenge last year’s 24-17 loss to the Herd. And the Hokies will be even more determined to win after losing in overtime to Vanderbilt in Week 1. An 0-2 start will want to be avoided at all costs, especially with the experienced group VA Tech has.
Still, a three-touchdown favorite seems a little extreme when going up against one of the best defenses in the Sun Belt. I don’t anticipate Virginia Tech will score enough to put this game out of reach. Marshall’s offense will need to find some ways to score with its new-look air raid offense and should be able to put just enough on the board to cover the spread.
Tulane (+10, +300) vs. Kansas State
Kansas State just might win the Big 12 this season. But that’s only because the Green Wave aren’t there to stop them.
Alright, maybe that’s not true, but Tulane knocked off the Wildcats in 2022 in a 17-10 road victory. KSU was a 14-point favorite. This year’s team is much better, though, but that doesn’t mean the Green Wave aren’t up to the challenge.
First-year head coach Jon Sumrall is familiar with the Wildcats after facing them with Troy last season where the Trojans lost 42-13. This is an early opportunity for Sumrall to prove himself in his new role, and I expect him to have the Green Wave prepared.
Army (+4, +155) At FAU
The Black Knights’ first AAC conference meeting comes against an FAU squad that played Michigan State well last weekend. If the Owls would have found any offensive rhythm, they could have won that game. Army is coming off a dominant win over Lehigh.
FAU allowed 4.8 yards per carry to the Spartans, and I imagine Army’s rushing attack will be much more effective. I think the Black Knights find success on the ground (surprise) and keep the ball away from FAU – who will struggle to generate offense, especially with limited possessions.
If Army loses, I don’t think it will be by more than a field goal.
