A lot will be on the line when Fresno State and UNLV meet in Allegiant Stadium on Saturday. The loser is almost certainly out of the race for one of five guaranteed spots in the College Football Playoff, and they’re on the verge of being eliminated from the hunt for a Mountain West Championship.
A win at 10 p.m. ET Saturday on FS1 will give Fresno State an inside track to the conference title game. The Bulldogs don’t play Boise State or San Diego State this season, so their toughest remaining Mountain West game will be at home against Colorado State on Nov. 23. UNLV still has to play Boise State, Oregon State, and San Diego State.
The Rebels have put together three straight wins, two of which have come against Big 12 teams Houston and Kansas. But the complexion of Saturday’s game changed Tuesday night when UNLV quarterback Matthew Sluka announced he’ll sit out the rest of the season reportedly because of a dispute over NIL payments.
UNLV will turn the offense over to Cameron Friel, a former Mountain West Freshman of the Year who has played in just five games the past two years, or athletic transfer Hajj-Malik Williams, who set program records at Campbell with 8,236 passing yards and 58 touchdown passes.
Fresno State’s passing attack is led by senior quarterback Mikey Keene, who completed 78.8% of his passes last week against New Mexico. His top two receivers, Jalen Moss and Mac Dalena, have caught a combined 33 passes for 674 yards and three touchdowns.
UNLV vs. Fresno State Betting Line
UNLV is a 1.5-point college football betting odds favorite, and the Over/Under is 48.5 points. The Rebels are 14-6 against the spread in their past 20 games as a favorite at home. Fresno State is 5-15 ATS in its past 20 games as an underdog on the road. The Bulldogs lead the all-time series 19-7, and they’ve won six in a row, including a 31-24 victory at home last season.
UNLV vs. Fresno State Prediction
I predict Fresno State wins 24-14.
This is a matchup of one of the best passing attacks in the Mountain West against UNLV’s defense, which is giving up a conference-leading 297.3 yards a game. Usually I’d go defense, but the sudden change at quarterback is going to hurt the Rebels, especially because Sluka’s legs have been UNLV’s most consistent offensive weapon at times. I think the Rebels’ defense keeps it close, but Keene leads the Bulldogs into the Mountain West title race.
Make-Or-Break Mountain West Games
Washington State at No. 25 Boise State
How to watch: 10 p.m. ET, FS1
Betting line: Boise State is a 7.5-point favorite, and the Over/Under is 63.5 points. The Broncos are 15-5 against the spread in their past 20 games as a favorite at home. Washington State is 5-15 ATS in its past 20 games as an underdog on the road. The programs haven’t met since 2017, but the Cougars lead the all-time series 5-1.
Prediction: I predict Boise State wins 30-24. The No. 25-ranked Broncos’ valiant effort at Oregon and their 56-14 win over Portland State were enough to earn Boise State its first spot in the Associated Press Top 25 since 2020. They’re the only ranked team from the Group of Five, but on Saturday, they host red-hot Washington State, which is riding high after a win over Washington and last week’s overtime thriller against San Jose State. The Cougars have been stout against the run the past two weeks, but they haven’t faced a running back like Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty. I think he’ll have another big day and the Broncos will hold on for a close win.
New Mexico at New Mexico State
How to watch: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN+
Betting line: New Mexico is a 9.5-point favorite, and the Over/Under is 54.5 points. The Lobos are 17-10 in the series since 1995, but the Aggies have won this matchup in each of the past two years.
Prediction: I predict New Mexico wins 28-14. New Mexico State’s offense has fallen off since the Aggies almost beat Liberty on Sept. 7. They’ve managed 11 points the past two weeks against Fresno State and Sam Houston, and they mustered just 152 yards against the Bearkats. New Mexico quarterback Devon Dampier was held in check by Fresno State last week, but I think he’ll have a big day and help head coach Bronco Mendenhall pick up his first win as a Lobo.
More Mountain West Picks
Air Force at Wyoming
How to watch: 8 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
Betting line: Air Force is a four-point favorite, and the Over/Under is 33.5 points.
Prediction: I predict Air Force wins 24-10. Two struggling offenses clash in what should be a low-scoring affair, but I think Air Force gets its prolific rushing attack back on track and sends Wyoming to its fifth-straight loss.
San Diego State at Central Michigan
How to watch: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
Betting line: Central Michigan is a 2.5-point favorite, and the Over/Under is 53.5 points.
Prediction: I predict San Diego State wins 27-17. San Diego State’s offense has generated just 10 points in losses to Cal and Oregon State the past two weeks. I think the Aztecs lean on talented running back Marquez Cooper and right the ship against a Central Michigan team coming off a thrilling 37-34 win over Ball State.
