What a brutal loss it was for last week’s Group of Five Underdog of the Week.
After East Carolina jumped out to a 17-0 lead, the Pirates let Liberty storm back for a 35-24 win. The Pirates’ defense just could not get off the field in the second half, and Liberty took the lead on a 16-play drive where it converted five third downs. The Flames went on to score on their next possession with under two minutes left to cover the spread. College football betting odds had ECU as a 6.5-point underdog.
All Quinton Cooley needed was a first down to ice the game, but instead he found the end zone from 21 yards out.
We must move on, though. Here is this week’s G5 Underdog of the Week.
Northern Illinois (Spread +7, Moneyline +220) at North Carolina State
I faded the Huskies last week against Buffalo thinking it would be a let down spot following the big win at Notre Dame. I didn’t expect them to lose, however.
I’m still unsure how the Bulls managed to put up 23 points on 184 total yards while going 2 for 15 on third down, but they did enough down the stretch to come away with the win and knock NIU out of the Associated Press Top 25.
I imagine the Huskies are irritated about that loss and eager to get another taste of a Power Four victory this week.
NIU’s defense has been stout all season and leads the MAC in scoring defense, allowing 17.3 points per game. The Huskies also allow only 256 total yards per game. NC State starting quarterback Grayson McCall is injured and missed last week’s loss to Clemson. True freshman CJ Bailey stepped in and performed OK, but a lot of his production came when the game was already out of reach. I think NIU’s defense can limit Bailey and this offense.
The Wolfpack also struggle against the run, which is an area where the Huskies excel. NC State is giving up 170 rushing YPG, and NIU is averaging 222 yards on the ground. NIU’s offensive line should match up well with NC State’s defensive line and keep a clean pocket for NIU quarterback Ethan Hampton, who has also been very efficient on the season. The Huskies haven’t given up a sack this year, and NC State has gotten to the quarterback just four times.
NC State ranks last in the ACC in scoring defense, allowing 37.8 points per game, and its 417 YPG allowed rank second-to-last. I expect NIU’s offense to put some points on the board and its defense to continue its strong start to the season.
NIU is 5-1 as a road underdog the past two seasons and has beaten its last two ACC opponents.
Honorable Mentions
South Florida (+6.5, +185) at Tulane
The Bulls’ 50-15 loss to Miami last week was closer than the score suggests. They were leading until late in the second quarter. It was reminiscent of their loss to Alabama three weeks ago where they were in the game early but just couldn’t keep pace with the opposing high-powered attack. Miami scored a touchdown on each of its second-half possessions.
Those two contests should have prepared USF for conference action. Tulane gave up some big plays last week against Louisiana — especially on the ground — and Bulls QB Byrum Brown should be able to make some things happen both through the air and with his legs to give the Bulls a spark.
Western Kentucky (+13, +345) at Boston College
I think the Hilltoppers might just look a little better with Caden Veltkamp at quarterback. And that’s no disrespect to TJ Finley. Last week’s victory over Toledo was impressive. I thought for certain the Rockets had that game in the bag.
Veltkamp led WKU on two scoring drives in the fourth quarter to give the Hilltoppers the lead, but their defense is what really stood out. It forced Toledo into four second-half turnovers and also secured a safety.
If the defense can play how it did in the second half against Toledo, I think the Hilltoppers have a good chance to keep this Boston College matchup within two possessions. WKU is 11-5 as a road underdog under head coach Tyson Helton.
Akron (+11.5, +377) at Ohio
It hasn’t been an ideal start to the 2024 campaign for Akron — which has faced three Power Four programs and has been outscored 151-30 in those outings — but the Zips are still willing to battle.
Ohio hasn’t been very good the past few weeks, and I can see another sluggish game happening here against an opponent the Bobcats are used to beating. However, the Zips have gone 6-2 against the spread in these last eight matchups.
I like Akron to flirt with an upset here.
