Don’t look now, but the Sam Houston Bearkats are 6-2 in their last eight games.
Yes, that dates back to last season, but it goes to show the progress that has been made since early last year when SHSU started 0-8 in its first season as a member of the FBS and Conference USA.
The momentum from the end of 2023 has carried into this season, and the Bearkats currently sit at 3-1 with wins over Rice, Hawaii, and New Mexico State. Those three programs aren’t looking great this year, but they’re legitimate Group of Five programs. I think it says enough about the Bearkats and that they’re not a squad that can be overlooked.
Texas State certainly shouldn’t be looking past the Bearkats ahead of Saturday’s matchup. This game will be played at Houston’s NRG Stadium and college football betting odds have the Bobcats as an 8.5-point favorite.
If the Bearkats want a shot to win this game, they’ll likely need to keep the ball out of quarterback Jordan McCloud’s hands and keep the Bobcat offense off the field as much as possible. The Bearkats have proven they can control the clock this year and dominated possession in all three of their wins. Their average time of possession is 33 minutes, 4 seconds, which ranks second in the conference only behind Liberty (33:06). That mark is also tied for 10th best in the country.
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Sam Houston’s Rushing Attack
As you may imagine, the main factor in SHSU’s ability to keep its offense on the field is having a strong rushing attack. The Bearkats are tied for fifth in the FBS in total rushing attempts with 178. In their three wins, they have rushed the ball 148 times compared to their opponents’ combined 67 rushes. The only game so far where SHSU didn’t outrush its opponent was against UCF — which is the No. 1 rushing offense in the FBS.
The Bearkats are having success using multiple players in the run game. Led by quarterback Hunter Watson and his 58.3 yards per game, SHSU also has running backs Jay Ducker (52.3 YPG) and DJ Kinney (38.8) finding success out of the backfield. Each of these guys have 25 or more carries on the year. There are 11 players on the roster who have had at least one carry.
Of course all of this starts up front, and the Bearkats’ offensive line returned four starters from last year and has been run blocking well.
Texas State allows 151 rushing yards per game and has given up 28 rushing touchdowns. However, its defense did hold up well against Arizona State’s decent rushing attack in Week 3. I expect the Bobcats to try and make Watson beat them with his arm, so he’s going to have to make some plays through the air. He’s proven he’s capable of doing that, keeping defenses honest.
If Watson can continue to find success in the passing game this weekend, then this rushing attack can do what it’s been best at all season — keeping the ball away from the opponent. Sam Houston will need to do that for a chance to pull off the biggest win of its FBS era.
Sam Houston-Texas State Prediction
I predict that Texas State will win but the Bearkats will cover the 8.5-point spread.
I can see the Bobcats getting a little too confident and taking SHSU lightly. I think the Bearkats make enough plays offensively to keep this game within reach while soaking in the atmosphere of NRG Stadium.
