For the second consecutive week, our Group of Five Underdog of the Week gave up a two-possession lead and made critical mistakes down the stretch.
Old Dominion was leading Coastal Carolina by 10 points before a pair of turnovers helped the Chanticleers take the lead. The Monarchs trailed by five in the fourth quarter, but mental mistakes in ODU’s secondary were key in CCU pulling ahead.
The Monarchs ultimately fell 45-37 and didn’t cover the spread. College football betting odds had them as a six-point underdog.
We already saw one G5 Underdog cash this week with FIU almost knocking off Liberty. Hopefully there are more to come.
Kent State (Spread +7, Moneyline +205) vs. Ball State
It’s always a good thing when you can find a home underdog in a conference matchup.
Maybe it’s not so great when it’s one of the worst teams in the FBS.
Regardless, I’m the kind of guy that doesn’t want to see a team go winless during the season, and that’s the path that the Golden Flashes are on. Unless they pick up a win here, of course.
I think this might be the best opportunity for Kent State to get a win this season. Some may think that will be against Akron, but the Zips have been better than Ball State. KSU suffered season-ending injuries to its top two quarterbacks in a loss to Penn State three weeks ago, but Tommy Ulatowski started two weeks ago against Eastern Michigan and passed for 345 yards and three touchdowns as the KSU offense looked the best it has all season. The junior started three games for the Golden Flashes last season.
Now, Ulatowski gets a Ball State defense that’s allowing 48 points and 516 yards per game. Unfortunately, KSU is the only team in the MAC that allows more. Much of that production allowed came against Penn State and Tennessee, however, which set program records in total offense in those contests. Ulatowski also has two all-conference wideouts in Luke Floriea and Chrishon McCray who should thrive against this pass defense.
The Golden Flashes’ defense looked a little better against EMU, but the turnovers were crucial. They coughed the ball up four times despite not turning it over once against two top 10 teams.
Kent State is coming off a bye week, so it should be refreshed and hopefully a little more polished and prepared. The home team has won six of these last seven meetings and has gone 5-2 against the spread.
Arkansas State (+14.5, +475) at Texas State
We saw last week that Arkansas State can hold its own against a potent offense. The Red Wolves outlasted South Alabama in a 18-16 game where quarterback Jaylen Raynor led ASU on a game-winning drive.
If the Red Wolves’ defense can play anywhere close to how it did in that game then they should be within two scores here.
Texas State has played to the level of its opponents this season and lost as a double-digit favorite to Sam Houston two weeks ago and defeated Lamar by a touchdown as a 34-point favorite in Week 1.
The Bobcats’ defense has struggled against dual-threat QBs this season, and Raynor could be in for a big game in this Sun Belt meeting.
Middle Tennessee (+5, +175) at Louisiana Tech
This will be a battle of one-win teams in a Thursday night CUSA matchup. Both squads are coming off a bye week.
I like that the Blue Raiders are getting five points here against a team that struggles to score. I know, MTSU also has a hard time putting points on the board, and it is going up against what’s been a stout LA Tech defense. But I think quarterback Nicholas Vattiato can find ways to get the ball down the field and do enough to keep this a one-possession game. Vattiato leads the league in passing with 257 yards per game.
LA Tech is 2-5 against the spread as a favorite at home dating back to last season.
