When framing a team’s chance at a championship, it is often much about the schedules. That is certainly the case in the American Athletic Conference, where there are 11 teams who each play eight conference games.
Even those of us who aren’t math whizzes realize that there will be two teams from the conference that each member doesn’t face. Those two non-played games could have a huge impact on the 2022 season, one in which Cincinnati, Central Florida and Houston are into their AAC swan song before departing for the Big 12.
This year, either Houston or Cincinnati is picked as the team to beat in the AAC. Central Florida is closely behind. Any of the three can win it, but Houston has a major advantage as far as the schedule goes. That’s because the two AAC teams that Houston doesn’t play this year are Cincinnati and Central Florida.
How convenient is that?
It doesn’t mean that Houston, coming off a 12-2 season that ended with a 17-13 win over Auburn in the Birmingham Bowl, will be without challenges. It’s just that not having to face the two expected biggest competitors is a major break. As in recent seasons, the top two teams will end up playing for the AAC championship.
Last year, without also having to face Cincinnati and a Central Florida team that went 9-4 despite being hit hard by injury, Houston went 8-0 in the regular season against AAC competition. Again, it was anything but an easy time for the Cougars. Three of the wins were by a touchdown or less — a 28-20 home win over Navy, a 31-24 overtime victory against visiting East Carolina and a 44-37 home win against SMU.
Notice that all three games were at home, but Houston still struggled. Then again, all that matters is that the Cougars won the games.
Even Cincinnati, en route to a 13-1 record, had two one-score AAC victories, winning at Navy 27-20 and at home against Tulsa 28-20.
We interrupt this talk about contenders to ask the simple question — how can a Navy team that lost by a TD to both Houston and Cincinnati have gone 4-8 on the season?
More on the Midshipmen later this year, but for now, we’re focusing on the expected contenders.
Of the eight AAC opponents last season for Houston, three had winning records, four didn’t and one (Memphis) ended 6-6. The only loss to a conference team came in the AAC championship when Cincinnati beat the Cougars, 35-20. Still, give Houston credit for beating the AAC teams on its regular season schedule.
In addition, quarterback Clayton Tune developed into one of the better quarterbacks in the conference. Now entering his fifth season at Houston (getting an extra year of eligibility for the 2020 COVID season), Tune completed 68 percent of his passes for 3,544 yards, 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. No doubt the big leap he made is a major reason Houston is expected to enjoy similar success this year.
Cincinnati, meanwhile, not only has to play Central Florida but meets the Bulls in the second of what could be two challenging road games. It begins at SMU on Oct. 22, a team that has its version of Houston’s Tune in quarterback Tanner Mordecai, who merely led the AAC in touchdown passes (39) and passing yards (3,628). If that isn’t enough, redshirt freshman Preston Stone, a four-star recruit, made a favorable impression during the spring. This is a true embarrassment of quarterback riches.
Then after the Bearcats visit SMU, they travel to Orlando and face UCF the next week, Oct. 29. It’s not going out on a limb to suggest that this could be Cincinnati’s toughest two-game stretch of the season. The two AAC teams that Cincinnati doesn’t play this year are Houston and an expected to be competitive Memphis team. This is a decent break, but not as good as Houston has.
While we’re at it, a look at who UCF doesn’t play includes Houston and a Tulsa team that is coming off a 7-6 season in which it won its last four games.
As the old saying goes, the games aren’t played on paper. But looking at the paper, Houston definitely has an edge in the AAC scheduling department.
