Thirteen points.
That’s the sum of Western Kentucky’s three losses: a 33-30 overtime loss at Indiana, a 34-27 loss to Troy and a 31-28 loss at UTSA.
In retrospect, that Indiana loss may not have looked so bad considering the Hoosiers had beaten No. 24-ranked Illinois two weeks prior. It still might not look so bad considering your thoughts on Nebraska (the Hoosiers lost to the Huskers by two touchdowns two weeks ago). The other two losses to quality teams on WKU’s résumé aren’t that bad.
The point is, the Hilltoppers had opportunities late in the fourth quarter during the losses to Troy and UTSA to tie the game, or take the lead. They turned it over on those possessions, allowing both opponents to run out the clock. In the loss to Indiana, an overtime field goal attempt was blocked, providing the Hoosiers with an easy opportunity to put the game away.
Brutal.
So, have the Hilltoppers fallen victim to unfortunate events? Or have they just been unable to finish games? I think both considerations have played a role. The turnovers fall under miscues — one being a fumble coughed up while marching in Troy territory with just over a minute to play, and the other being a turnover on downs where the Hilltoppers dismissed a 51-yard field goal attempt to tie the game, going for it on fourth-and-7 with just under four minutes to play. That could also easily be marked up as a poor decision.
The two turnovers and the blocked kick are arguably three plays that have shaped the Hilltoppers’ season. I’m not saying they would’ve exactly won these games if those plays went in favor of WKU, but they may not be sitting at .500 if at least one did.
Three plays, three losses and a 3-3 team that sits at 1-1 and in the middle of the pack of C-USA play. If the Hilltoppers had come away with at least one of those wins, they may have had a chance to crack our top 10 poll this week. A win last week at UTSA could’ve done the job.
In between all of the heartbreak was a 73-0 rout over FIU. That game may have skewed the statistics, but WKU sits first in scoring offense and second in scoring defense in its competitive league. Quarterback Austin Reed leads the conference in nearly every passing category, and paces C-USA in touchdowns with 22. Reed was added to the Maxwell Award watch list Wednesday.
The West Florida transfer has thrown for 2,040 yards while tossing 19 touchdowns and completing 72% of his passes. He ranks third in the nation in passing yards per game (339.6), is fourth in the country in passing touchdowns, and eighth in completion percentage. Not too shabby for a guy that had to replace Bailey Zappe, who is expected to make his second career NFL start for New England on Sunday.
It has encountered a tough schedule, but WKU still faces challenges ahead. Even as 8-point favorites on the road, the Hilltoppers need to be on their game Saturday against rival Middle Tennessee State in the Battle for the Red Belt. They follow up with matchups at home against UAB and North Texas – two more critical, tough games.
This three-week stretch will probably determine whether or not WKU sees a bowl game.
Coming off a 9-5 campaign, WKU was predicted to finish third in C-USA by the media behind UTSA and UAB. It’s been an interesting seven weeks for the Hilltoppers, whose luck could easily shift in the opposite direction going forward.
Bad breaks aside, the Hilltoppers are better than a .500 team. We’ll just have to wait and see if they finish the season as one.
