The 2024 FCS season kicks off Saturday with Week 0 games.
Two ranked teams are in action along with the defending HBCU national champions. Let’s predict some scores.
Predictions Record:
2023 Record: 96-42
2019-2022 Record: 337-158
Week 0
McNeese at No. 21 Tarleton State
I like Tarleton as a playoff team this fall in its first year eligible for the postseason.
The Texans finished 8-3 last year, owning a Top 10 FCS scoring offense (33.3 points per game). They return their starting QB Victor Gabalis, two running backs (Kayvon Britten and Derrel Kelley III) that have rushed for over 1,000 yards in a season, top three wide receivers (led by two-time All-UAC selection Darius Cooper), and five starting offensive linemen.
The defense will need to improve to make serious noise nationally after allowing 24.5 points per game, ranking 43rd in the FCS. Five of the top eight tacklers are back.
McNeese is an interesting test to start the year, though.
The Cowboys have a solid tradition, but they have endured some down years lately. They didn’t win a game last year unless you count the forfeit win over Northwestern State. Despite having Micah Davey, who returns as one of the best FCS linebackers, McNeese was awful defensively, allowing 38.1 points per game to rank No. 118 in the FCS.
McNeese brought in about 16 FBS transfers this offseason and five FCS transfers. This includes QB Clifton McDowell, who helped lead Montana to last season’s national championship game.
In front of a strong Tarleton home crowd, the Texans pull away offensively.
Prediction: Tarleton 41-28
New Customer Offers at BetMGM
Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l Terms
North Alabama vs. SEMO
A peek inside my predictions strategy here — I typically just go with my gut feeling and then provide reasoning/analysis/stats to back up my prediction.
On the surface, it seems SEMO is the safe pick here. The Redhawks are a known FCS commodity, reaching the playoffs in 2018, 2019, and 2022. Last year’s team finished 4-7 after being preseason ranked, losing four games by one possession. Well-known standouts like QB Paxton DeLaurent, OL Zack Gieg, CB Joedrick Lewis, and LB Bryce Norman are back.
But something tells me North Alabama is going to get this one. The Lions went 3-8 last year. They beat ranked Chattanooga and had competitive games against quality teams like Mercer, EKU, Austin Peay, and Central Arkansas.
They return 18 starters with seven on offense, eight on defense, and three on special teams. WR Takairee Kenebrew and DB Edwin White Schultz are excellent players. North Alabama also landed about 13 FBS transfers, including QB Ari Patu from Stanford and DC Tabscott from New Mexico.
UNA gets the FCS Kickoff win in Montgomery, AL.
Prediction: North Alabama 24-21
Norfolk State vs. Florida A&M
The MEAC/SWAC Challenge, played in Atlanta, features the defending Celebration Bowl champs FAMU.
The Rattlers look to show they are still the HBCU team to beat with a convincing win over Norfolk State, who went 3-8 last year. FAMU has some question marks, losing its head coach and nine players to the FBS. However, the talent is still aplenty as the program brought in 30+ FBS transfers.
There is also a good nucleus of returning standouts, like OL Ashton Grable, DB Kendall Bohler, DB Deco Wilson, RB Kelvin Dean, WR Jamari Gassett, and DL Allen Smith.
Both squads will have new starting quarterbacks to open the 2024 campaign. FAMU announced FAU transfer Daniel Richardson is QB1, while JuCo transfer Jalen Daniels will start for Norfolk State. Preseason First Team All-MEAC selection Otto Kuhns will be sidelined for the first four games due to an NCAA ruling.
FAMU prides itself on defense. Finding success won’t be easy for Norfolk and its new starting QB.
Prediction: FAMU 28-14
BONUS PICK
No. 4 Montana State at FBS New Mexico
I only pick FCS vs. FCS games for these weekly prediction articles. But I’ll make an exception this week since there is a limited number of games.
Montana State opened as a 4.5-point favorite in early July. It is now MSU -11.5 on BetMGM.
This game reminds me of a Big Sky-Mountain West matchup last year. Idaho was favored by three points over Nevada. Idaho was clearly the better team, but books seemed hesitant to favor an FCS team over an FBS program by too much. The Vandals went on to win 33-6.
I don’t know if MSU will beat New Mexico 33-6. But I feel comfortable picking the Bobcats to win. And the spread is intriguing as well. 11.5 points is a lot for an FCS-FBS game. It’s the biggest FCS over FBS favorite since Old Dominion was favored by 14 at Idaho in 2013. ODU was transitioning to the FBS that year but was still considered an FCS team.
New Mexico has many unknowns. The Lobos lost most of their best players from last year’s 4-8 team. On the other sideline, Montana State is a serious FCS title threat as it returns most of last year’s 2-deep.
New Mexico was awful against the run in 2023, allowing 172.2 rushing yards per game to rank No. 103 in the FBS. Running the ball is MSU’s strength, even if the Cats will be without All-American center Justus Perkins and standout running back Julius Davis at the start of this season. They still have four players on the o-line with significant starting experience, and there is quality depth in the backfield. Scottre Humphrey can take over the lead role just fine. He averaged 8.0 yards per carry and rushed for 441 yards and eight scores last year as a freshman.
MSU’s defense may give up some explosive plays Saturday. But its offense will play ball-control with the ground game while Tommy Mellott shows off an efficient passing attack.
Prediction: Montana State 35-17
