How quickly things can change.
Just eight months ago, New Mexico State was coming off its best campaign since 1960, finishing the regular season 10-3 and earning a spot in the Conference USA title game. The Aggies went on to lose to Liberty before falling to Fresno State in the New Mexico Bowl. It was the first time NMSU had consecutive bowl appearances since 1959-60.
Now, the main guy responsible for one of the biggest turnarounds in college football is gone. Jerry Kill resigned as head coach and is part of Vanderbilt’s staff. There’s no question he made his two years in Las Cruces count.
Next up is Tony Sanchez, who was NMSU’s wide receivers coach the past two seasons. Sanchez was the head coach at UNLV from 2015-19, where he compiled a 20-40 record. He will have his work cut out for him as the Aggies don’t return much production, but he hopes to continue that culture Kill established. Sanchez also brought in new offensive and defensive coordinators in Tyler White and Joe Morris.
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New Mexico State Football’s CUSA Title Odds
New Mexico State’s odds to win CUSA are +8000, via BetMGM.
New Mexico State Football’s Betting Odds & Over/Under Win Total
New Mexico State’s win total Over/Under is 4.5, with the Over at +135 and the Under at -160.
New Mexico State Football’s 2024 Schedule
8/31 vs SE Missouri
9/7 vs Liberty
9/14 at Fresno State
9/21 at Sam Houston
9/28 vs New Mexico
10/9 at Jacksonville State
10/15 vs Louisiana Tech
10/29 at FIU
11/9 vs Western Kentucky
11/16 at Texas A&M
11/23 at Middle Tennessee
11/30 vs UTEP
Bold indicates CUSA contests
Key New Mexico State Football Returners
2023 All-CUSA 1st Team
OL Shiyazh Pete
2nd Team
OL Canaan Yarro
LS Charlie Eberle
New Mexico State Transfers Will Need To Play Big Roles
Not only did the Aggies lose Kill, but star quarterback Diego Pavia and tight end Eli Stowers joined him at Vanderbilt. The two were All-CUSA players last year. NMSU is likely to replace both of them — and many others — via the transfer portal.
There’s a good chance at least 10 of the Aggies’ starters will be transfers. Some of them should come in and make their presence felt immediately.
One of those guys is safety Da’Marcus Crosby. The senior transferred from Sam Houston and was a first-team All-CUSA selection last year after he finished with 55 total tackles, four interceptions, and three pass breakups. Crosby will be a huge boost for a defense that lost most of its defensive backs from 2023 and finished second-to-last in the league with 251 passing yards per game allowed. Cornerback Dakerric Hobbs also transferred from SHSU and started five games, tallying 38 tackles and five PBUs on the year.
Nearly all of the Aggies’ receivers from last year are gone and will be replaced by transfers and mostly JUCO players. One of the names to watch from this group is Jahrique Lowe, who had 646 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns last year for Glendale Community College. Parker Awad is the Aggies’ No. 1 QB entering the fall and is also a JUCO transfer, coming from Golden West College where he totaled 1,223 yards and 12 TDs.
Seth McGowan might turn out to be the biggest playmaker on the offense, however. McGowan spent time at Oklahoma before transferring to Butler CC. If he can reach his potential, then the Aggies’ run game could be dangerous, especially with Monte Watkins returning and four starters on the offensive line — including two all-conference selections in Shiyazh Pete and Canaan Yarro.
NMSU’s offensive line ranks with Liberty’s among the best in the league and is the only position group on this team that isn’t being rebuilt through the portal. It’s the foundation the Aggies will need if they want to get close to replicating the production of last year’s offense.
2024 New Mexico State Football Season Prediction
The Aggies won’t win CUSA, and I don’t anticipate them winning more than four games, either.
They will face a pair of Mountain West teams in non-conference play, and while I actually do think they’ll likely beat New Mexico, I can’t see the Aggies defeating Fresno State. I think NMSU will win two non-conference games, but winning three league games seems like a stretch.
With all of the new players coming in — and new coaches — this seems like a season where NMSU tries to establish its identity under Sanchez. There’s too much turnover for me to be confident in this program.
I predict the Aggies will finish 4-8 and go Under 4.5 wins.
