At least two Group of Five teams have appeared in the final AP Top 25 poll for each of the last nine seasons, yet no G5 teams appeared in this year’s preseason poll.
I’m disappointed, but not surprised.
Last year, I wrote about how AP Poll voters continually overlook Group of Five programs. From 2018-22, G5 teams appeared a grand total of 10 times in the preseason AP Top 25, but Group of Five squads finished in the top 25 poll 26 times during those five seasons.
Only Tulane was in the poll last preseason, but Liberty and SMU both appeared in the final poll.
I’d bet an ungodly amount of money that at least one G5 team (the one that makes the College Football Playoff seems like a safe choice) will end up in the final AP Top 25 poll. Yet AP poll voters won’t learn their lesson in the preseason and instead slot in any Power Four teams that come to mind.
Overlooked G5 Schools
Even with conference realignment and SMU leaving for the ACC, there’s no shortage of Group of Five teams worthy of a top 25 spot. Boise State came the closest, checking in at 28th in the poll.
The Broncos were shortchanged at 28th, though. They return Ashton Jeanty, one of the best running backs in the entire country. He went for 1,900 total yards and 19 total touchdowns last year, giving the Broncos an elite threat out of the backfield to pair with USC transfer quarterback Malachi Nelson.
Boise State’s offensive line and defense are both arguably the best in the Mountain West. It’s a loaded roster that sounds like a preseason top 25 team to me.
UTSA, Memphis, Liberty, Tulane, and App State – all teams that appeared in the receiving votes section of the preseason poll but didn’t merit enough points to make the top 25 – would be strong choices, too. Even Texas State, which should have one of the most prolific offenses in the country, could’ve warranted consideration.
Metrics Are A Bigger Issue
While being left out of the preseason AP Top 25 is annoying, it’s not the end of the world. The bigger issue facing Group of Five teams are the preseason power metrics, which are hard to overcome if you start well outside the top 25.
ESPN’s Football Power Index only has one team (Boise State at No. 48) inside its top 50. That’s insanity.
The Broncos are 12 spots behind Colorado, which went 4-8 last season and will be pleased to make a bowl game in 2024. Make that make sense.
South Florida, which ended its 2023 season with a 45-0 bowl win over Syracuse, is 88th in FPI. UNLV, which returns several key offensive pieces and brought in an elite transfer portal class including two FCS standouts at quarterback, is 86th. The Rebels are 10 spots behind Vanderbilt, an SEC team the Rebels beat last fall.
UNLV ended last season 73rd, and Vanderbilt finished 102nd. Did Vanderbilt do anything to merit a nearly 30-spot jump forward in the offseason? The Commodores’ win total Over/Under is 2.5 games at BetMGM.
FPI may very well be among the metrics the College Football Playoff committee looks at when selecting teams. At the very least, FPI will be cited by ESPN talking heads when they discuss the CFP and compare teams. That’s a major flaw in the system that only drives the narrative that the Power Four leagues are head and shoulders above the top of the Group of Five.
I’m not optimistic about the narrative changing any time soon, but any advanced metric suggesting teams like Boise State are worse than Colorado is laughable. It’s time someone started to respect the top of the Group of Five.
