Montana State’s football schedule this year has eight Big Sky Conference games, one FBS opponent, and three FCS non-conference matchups.
Here are game-by-game predictions for Montana State, who is No. 4 in HERO Sports’ FCS Preseason Top 25.
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at New Mexico
MSU looks to avoid an upset loss to start the season, a Week 0 game on national TV (FS1).
Yes, it’s an uncommon scenario where an FCS team is favored against an FBS team. The line opened with Montana State as a 4.5-point favorite. That jumped up to MSU -8.5 quite quickly, an indication that bettors were hammering MSU -4.5. Frankly, 8.5 is still probably undervaluing MSU.
For what it’s worth, the Bobcats finished No. 67 in last year’s Sagarin Ratings. New Mexico was No. 144.
And the 2024 Bobcats should be better than the 2023 squad.
New Mexico has finished 4-8, 2-10, and 3-9 in the last three seasons. The Lobos made a good hire in Bronco Mendenhall, but it will be quite the rebuilding project. They rank No. 131 out of 134 FBS teams entering this season, per ESPN’s SP+ Preseason FBS Rankings.
Win
at Utah Tech
Montana State, who will have a top-tier FCS offensive line and elite running back depth, rolls a team that allowed 222.4 rushing yards per game last year, which ranked near the bottom of the subdivision.
Win
vs Maine
The home opener in Bozeman always sees a rocking crowd. Maine, who went 2-9 last year, will be overmatched.
Win
vs Mercyhurst
Montana State was forced to schedule Mercyhurst after SFA bailed on its scheduled game vs. the Cats in May. Mercyhurst is in its first year as an FCS program.
This will be an ugly game. And it will once again beg the question of why Mercyhurst is in the same subdivision as Montana State and why Sam Houston is in the same subdivision as Texas.
Win
at Idaho State
MSU’s defense, which needs to go from pretty good to great for it to be a legitimate national title threat, will be tested on the road against a solid Idaho State offense. Perhaps a shootout is in store. MSU pulls out a closer win than expected, showing signs of battling through adverse situations, something it lacked at times last year.
Win
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vs Northern Colorado
Montana State wins big on its Homecoming.
Win
vs No. 7 Idaho
It’s now Oct. 12, and this is our first gauge to see how good MSU really is.
Beating a bad FBS team tells us some. Beating up on bad FCS teams doesn’t tell us much. The best gauge of an FCS team is playing other ranked FCS squads.
The Bobcats will have the best rushing attack in the Big Sky. Idaho will have a Top 2 rushing defense in the conference. Expect a slobberknocker. MSU gets a big win at home, avenging last year’s loss to the Vandals.
Win
at Portland State
Back-to-back road trips begin before three big tests to close out the regular season.
Portland State has a brutal schedule, playing eight preseason-ranked FCS teams and two FBS programs. It will be bruised physically and mentally at this point in the season.
Win
at Eastern Washington
EWU may not be a playoff squad this fall, but it will scare the top teams in the Big Sky.
This is another good test for MSU’s defense against a top-notch QB-WR duo (Kekoa Visperas-Efton Chism III). The Eagles brought in some transfers defensively to improve that side of the ball. MSU will still be too much here, flexing its muscle as arguably the best offense in the FCS.
Win
vs No. 8 Sacramento State
As good ol’ JR says, business is about to pick up.
Montana State ends the regular season with three straight ranked opponents. Currently at 9-0 and an FBS win, who knows, the Cats could be No. 1 in the polls right now. But coveted home-field playoff advantage will be earned in these final three games.
Sac State’s offense will be legit this fall. The defense has a lot of holes to fill, though, losing 10 of its top 11 tacklers. MSU will be able to grind out a win here, leaning on its ground game in the cold.
Win
at No. 18 UC Davis
The Bobcats are riding high — 10-0, an FBS win, two ranked victories, and potentially a No. 1 national ranking. A week before the Brawl of the Wild, they finally get caught.
UC Davis has the potential to be very good in 2024. Yes, it has had potential in previous years too, and fell short. This fall feels different, though. Lan Larison is a menace out of the backfield. And while MSU may be the No. 1-ranked team at this point in the season, we still may not be 100% sold on its defense. That bites the Cats this week as it struggles to contain Larison.
Loss
vs No. 3 Montana
Since the dramatic 2018 game that saw MSU win 29-25 at Montana, the home team has been an overwhelming favorite. MSU won 48-14 in 2019. Montana won 29-10 in 2021. MSU won 55-21 in 2022. And Montana won 37-7 last year.
Despite losing last week, MSU will still be in strong contention for a Top 2 playoff seed if it beats Montana, who may also be 10-1 entering the Brawl.
It’s almost too easy to just side with the home team. But in this series, the home squad has rolled. On a neutral field, I’d lean Montana. But Bozeman gives MSU the edge.
Win
Regular-Season Record Prediction: 11-1
Montana State Football Win Total
We’ll set the over/under regular-season win total for MSU at 10.5.
The schedule sets up nicely for the Bobcats. Not that it’s an easy slate. There is an FBS game and four ranked opponents. But it’s the most winnable FCS vs. FBS matchup, and three of the four ranked contests are at home.
Montana State could very well be favored in every game. The Cats should be that good, depending on whether Tommy Mellott can stay healthy. They have their most talented receivers coming back, and their loaded running back room returns its top four rushers. The portal losses on the o-line are greatly exaggerated. MSU returns five linemen with significant starting experience, plus depth hasn’t been an issue up front.
If the defense — returning four of its top five tacklers, seven of its top 11, and 12 of its 16 defensive players who played at least 280 snaps last year — can elevate its play, the Bobcats are a legitimate threat to win the national title. Not just a team that can get there or to the semifinals like previous years, but a team that can actually win it.
When MSU reached the championship game in the 2021 season and then made the semifinals in 2022, 2024 was pointed at as the year for the Cats. The roster has around 20 seniors, many who are multi-year starters. Remember that team that nearly beat No. 1 SDSU last year? That team didn’t consistently show up week-to-week. It fell short in big moments and didn’t make the winning play in 50/50 situations that could have altered the final result. The experience and talent are there to flip the script this fall.
