In an American Athletic Conference race that hasn’t exactly gone as many predicted, North Texas has been among the surprise teams this season. The Mean Green (5-1) have already matched their win total from a year ago when they went 5-7.
North Texas is coming off a 41-37 win at Florida Atlantic that included a wild comeback.
Memphis was the preseason pick by the media to win the AAC, but the Tigers dug themselves in an early hole with a 56-44 loss to Navy, so the margin of error is small.
The loser of the Memphis-UNT game would still be in the AAC race, although a Memphis loss could be more damaging since the Tigers have already one league loss.
North Texas-Memphis How To Watch
North Texas (5-1, 2-0 AAC) at Memphis (5-1, 1-1), 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday
TV: ESPNU
North Texas-Memphis Betting Line
Memphis is a 12.5-point favorite with a -400 moneyline. The Over/Under for the game is 66.5 total points.
North Texas-Memphis Coaches
North Texas: Eric Morris (10-8 at North Texas, 34-26 overall)
Memphis: Ryan Silverfield (36-19)
Last meeting: Oct. 28, 2023 – Memphis won 45-42 at North Texas
Seth Henigan fired a 36-yard touchdown pass to Joseph Scates with 10 seconds left to give Memphis the comeback win.
North Texas trailed 38-21 early in the fourth quarter before scoring three touchdowns to take a 42-38 lead. Henigan completed 22 of 28 passes for 330 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions. Chandler Rogers threw for 411 yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions for North Texas.
Why The North Texas-Memphis Game Is Important
A second AAC loss by Memphis would be disastrous for the Tigers, while North Texas is in the beginning of a three-game stretch that will determine whether the Mean Green will contend for a league title. After Memphis, North Texas visits Tulane and then hosts Army. Those two teams are a combined 7-0 in the AAC.
North Texas-Memphis Preview
For North Texas
The Mean Green have won three in a row since losing 66-21 at Texas Tech. North Texas needed an impressive comeback during last week’s 41-37 win at FAU. The Mean Green went down 37-27 when FAU kicked a field goal with 4:21 left. DT Sheffield would then catch two touchdown passes from Chandler Morris, the second with 58 seconds remaining.
Morris completed 27 of 45 passes for 336 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception. Sheffield caught 11 passes for 126 yards and two touchdowns.
The Mean Green have been a second-half team, outscoring opponents 135-63 after intermission this season.
Morris has completed 64.3% of his passes for 1,979 yards, 20 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. Four UNT players have rushed for between 100 and 220 yards. Sheffield has 34 receptions for 443 yards and seven touchdowns. Safety Jayden Hill, who spent the previous four seasons at Division II Ohio Dominican, leads the team with 43 tackles.
The Mean Green are third in the AAC in scoring (40.8 points per game) but 11th in scoring defense, allowing 33 PPG.
For Memphis
The Tigers have won two in a row since the aforementioned loss to Navy. Memphis is coming off last week’s 21-3 win over South Florida in Orlando. Memphis held USF to just 24 rushing yards on 19 attempts and forced three turnovers. USF was 1 for 13 on third downs. Henigan completed 28 of 40 passes for 208 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. The Tigers had possession for 41 minutes, 38 seconds.
Henigan is now tied with Brady White for the most wins at Memphis by a starting quarterback with 28.
The Tigers have now scored at least 20 points in 33 consecutive games, which is the longest active streak in the nation.
Henigan has been efficient, but he hasn’t enjoyed the breakout season that many expected. He has completed 65.1% of his passes for 1,547 yards, nine touchdowns, and three interceptions.
South Carolina transfer Mario Anderson Jr. has rushed for 456 yards and eight touchdowns. Seven different players have caught at least one touchdown pass in the Tigers’ balanced passing attack.
Roc Taylor has 26 receptions for 375 yards and a touchdown.
Linebacker Chandler Morris leads the Tigers in both tackles (42) and sacks (four).
Memphis is second in the AAC in scoring defense, allowing 15.8 points per game, and is fifth in scoring offense (31.2 points per game).
North Texas-Memphis Prediction
I like Memphis giving the points. North Texas has a prolific offense, but the Mean Green can also give up points in bundles. A key stat is penalties. North Texas is the second-worst team in the AAC, averaging 77 penalty yards per game. Memphis is the fourth-best team, averaging 44 per contest.
Another key stat is that North Texas has thrown 20 touchdown passes, but Memphis has allowed just two scoring passes. North Texas hasn’t faced a defense like this, and while the Mean Green should still be able to score, I don’t think it will be at the same pace as the first six games.
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