If we knew Arkansas State was going to be down to its third-string quarterback, and its top four cornerbacks were going to injured by the time the game ended, we probably would have leaned toward another selection for last week’s Group of Five Underdog of the Week. These things are unavoidable in gambling though, and excuses can’t be made.
Our streak will look to start over with this week’s Underdog of the Week (college football betting odds via BetMGM):
North Texas (spread: +10, moneyline +300) at Western Kentucky
If the Mean Green beat UTSA last week, I’d like to imagine this spread wouldn’t be what it is. Instead, North Texas gave up a game-winning drive to the Roadrunners in the final 1:38 of the game.
That was a glimpse that the Mean Green can compete with the top teams in the C-USA this season. These two teams are both 3-1 in the conference, and the winner could easily lock up a spot in the league title game, especially with WKU defeating UAB last week – and just by three points. It’s also one of the Group of Five games to watch.
UNT has proven that its offense can put up numbers this season with the likes of WKU, and averages 35 points per game compared to WKU’s 37.5. North Texas averages more yards per outing than WKU (484.25 to 472). Austin Reed has proven to be one of the top passers in the country this season and the Mean Green defense will have their work cut out for them.
That’s more than likely what this game will come down to: how well UNT’s defense plays. There’s just too much on the line for the Mean Green to go out and lose by double digits.
Honorable mentions:
Coastal Carolina (spread +2.5, moneyline +110) at Marshall
Marshall is certainly sitting high after a win over James Madison last week. The Thundering Herd were sitting high after a win over Notre Dame early in the season. The following week they lost to Bowling Green. Coastal hasn’t been dominating teams this season, but they’ve been winning. The loss to Old Dominion seemed to be an eye-opener:
I don’t think the Chanticleers have been playing their best football this season, yet they sit at 6-1 and would be playing for a Sun Belt championship if the season ended today. But it doesn’t end today. Either way, I can see the Herd suffering from another hangover.
Old Dominion (spread +4, moneyline +150) at Georgia State
The same Monarchs team that pulled the upset over Coastal as 10.5-point dogs didn’t look as impressive last week in a loss to Georgia Southern. Georgia State beat Georgia Southern on Oct. 8, and the books might still be looking back at that as a key factor in this line as the Panthers picked up one of their two wins on the season. These teams come off fairly even and we can give the Panthers two points for home-field advantage.
ODU is 2-1 against the spread on the road and 3-2 as an underdog. Covering this number probably just means containing Georgia State’s top rushing offense in the Sun Belt (233 YPG).
San Diego State (spread +8.5, +275) at Fresno State
To say the Aztecs haven’t been playing to its usual standard is an understatement. Still, they’re 4-3 overall and 2-1 in conference play. The winner of this contest will move to the top of the MW Mountain Division with Fresno knocking off San Jose State two weeks ago. This is another meaningful matchup on this list (as most games are at this point in the season) and I don’t think the Aztecs will lose by two possessions in a game of this significance.
