Falling behind 14-0 early in the first quarter and trailing Notre Dame 35-13 at the half, Navy rallied and was an onside kick away from an opportunity to tie the game. As last week’s Group of Five Underdog of the Week, Navy covered the 15.5-point spread. There was never a doubt with the Midshipmen.
This week’s underdog, again, features a G5 team going up against a (another?) Power 5 team. Yeah, Notre Dame is an independent, but that’s the closest comparison.
Here’s this week’s selection with college football betting odds via BetMGM:
Western Kentucky (spread +5.5, moneyline +180) at Auburn
This seems like a dicey play, but that’s why it’s called gambling. WKU hasn’t been able to come through and win a big game this season, losing to Troy by a touchdown, and UAB and UTSA by three. This is an opportunity for them to finally get over that hump and secure what should be a quality win against an SEC squad. Let’s face it, we know the mess Auburn has been through this season with the firing of Bryan Harsin and Cadillac Williams stepping in as interim coach.
The Tigers have still found a way to win and defeated Texas A&M last week, but that’s a team that has been even more in shambles. Auburn’s offense isn’t the greatest, and averages just 22.9 points and 377.2 yards per game. The Tigers are also tied for 122nd in the country with 21 turnovers this season. This falls into WKU’s favor:
The Hilltoppers, on the other hand, have an explosive offense that puts up 37.9 PPG and 484.5 YPG. Auburn’s pass defense is better than its run defense, but it still allows nearly 29 PPG. The Tigers can probably limit the WKU offense some, but I think it can still do enough damage to cover the 5.5 points. The Hilltoppers are 5-0 on the road ATS and 2-0 ATS as underdogs. They should go into Jordan-Hare Stadium with the motive of ruining Senior Night for Auburn, who will probably be looking a little bit ahead to next week’s Iron Bowl.
Honorable mentions
Wyoming (spread +14, moneyline +450) vs. Boise State
The Cowboys are still seeking their first-ever Mountain West championship. Maybe that’ll be the day Craig Bohl retires. For now, though, the Pokes host Boise State in what should be a cold night game in Laramie. There’s a reason this is one of our games to watch this week, and that Boise will lock up a spot in the MW title game with a win, while Wyoming needs to win this game if it wants a shot at a league championship.
The Cowboys still don’t know who will be under center, with Andrew Peasley leaving last week’s win over CSU with an injury and Jayden Clemons stepping in and guiding UW to a come-from-behind victory. The Broncos boast the top rushing defense in the league (107 YPG) and the Pokes lean on their rushing game (188.8 YPG) for most of their production. Boise also prefers to run the ball. This should be a grind-it-out game that has a great chance to be low-scoring, faring well for UW to cover.
Louisiana (spread +24, moneyline: +1200) at Florida State
This is another look-ahead spot for the favorite, with Florida State hosting Florida next week. The Seminoles have been on a tear since losing to Clemson, outscoring their previous three opponents 144-22. The Ragin Cajuns have played the quality opponents they’ve seen this season well, and will try to add something to their résumé before bowl season.
South Florida (spread +13, moneyline: +375) at Tulsa
The Bulls are bad this season (1-9), but so is Tulsa (3-7). These are the two bottom teams in the AAC and USF is the lone team in the league without a conference win. This is its last chance to get one. If the Bulls have one thing going for them, it’s that they average 181.8 rushing YPG and the Golden Hurricane allow 211.6. USF has nothing to lose here.
