After opening the season with a double-digit victory over Baylor, Texas State showed the potential to be one of the best Group of Five teams in 2023.
Then the Bobcats faltered a few times during Sun Belt play, including their last loss – a 77-31 decision at Arkansas State. Still, in head coach GJ Kinne’s first season as the leader of the program, Texas State had one of the most exciting offenses in the G5 and gave the team some momentum going into the future.
And that leads some to believe Texas State could contend for a conference championship as early as this season.
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Texas State Football’s Sun Belt Title Odds
Texas State’s odds to win the Sun Belt are +350, via BetMGM. That’s behind only App State (+275).
Texas State Football’s Betting Odds & Over/Under Win Total
Texas State’s win total Over/Under is 8.5, with Under 8.5 at -110 and Over 8.5 at -110.
Texas State Football’s 2024 Schedule
8/31 vs. Lamar
9/7 vs. UTSA
9/14 vs. Arizona State
9/28 @ Sam Houston
10/3 @ Troy
10/12 vs. Arkansas State
10/19 @ Old Dominion
10/29 vs. Louisiana
11/9 @ ULM
11/16 vs. Southern Miss
11/23 vs. Georgia State
11/29 @ South Alabama
Bold indicates Sun Belt contests
Key Texas State Football Returners
2023 All-Sun Belt 1st Team
K Mason Shipley
AP Ismail Mahdi
2nd Team
WR Joey Hobert
DL Ben Bell
RS Ismail Mahdi
Honorable Mention
WR Kole Wilson
Texas State Football Should Have A Potent Offense Once Again
Not only does Texas State have plenty of talented players returning, it has one of the best G5 transfer classes this year.
At quarterback, the Bobcats will have reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year Jordan McCloud. A Group of Five All-American for JMU last season, McCloud threw for 3,657 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions on a 68.2% completion rate.
Time will tell if he can lead Texas State’s offense as well as TJ Finley, who is now at Western Kentucky. The Bobcats were first in the Sun Belt with 36.7 points and 458.5 yards per game last season.
The Bobcats bring back star offensive players like Ismail Mahdi, who led the team with 1,331 yards – good for third in the Sun Belt – and 10 touchdowns on the ground. He also added 275 yards and a touchdown on 20 catches. He was a G5 All-American all-purpose player, as he returned 22 kickoffs for 563 yards and a touchdown as well.
On top of that, Texas State added former UTEP running backs Deion Hankins and Torrance Burgess Jr. Hankins was fifth in Conference USA with 812 yards rushing while scoring five touchdowns on the ground in 2023, while Burgess was eighth in CUSA with 620 yards to go with two touchdowns rushing.
At wide receiver, Texas State will be stacked. Joey Hobert returns after ranking third in the Sun Belt with 81.4 yards per game. He caught 76 passes for 895 yards and eight touchdowns in 2023. Kole Wilson is also back after ranking second on the team with 66 receptions for 747 yards and eight touchdowns.
The return of G5 All-American and first-team All-Sun Belt kicker Mason Shipley should help the Bobcats score some points as well. He was a perfect 15 of 15 on field goals a year ago.
The main question will be if Texas State can improve on defense. The Bobcats were 10th in the Sun Belt in total defense (397.6 yards per game allowed) and 12th in scoring defense (32.8 points per game allowed).
However, they could be expected to make some strides on that side of the ball. They return players like defensive lineman Ben Bell, a G5 All-American who is the top returning sack leader in the Sun Belt from a year ago with 10. He also chalked up 16 tackles for loss and 57 total tackles. The Bobcats also added several defenders from other FBS programs.
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2024 Texas State Football Season Prediction
I predict Texas State will win the Sun Belt Championship and will go Over 8.5 wins.
Texas State was going to be one of my favorites to win the conference after the end of the 2023 season after beating Rice in the First Responder Bowl. But then the Bobcats went and got better by putting together one of the top transfer classes in the Group of Five.
In my eyes, there’s not a single obvious loss on the Bobcats’ schedule. They should begin the year with non-conference wins over Lamar and Sam Houston. Matchups against UTSA and Arizona State won’t be easy, but considering they are both at home for Texas State, I think the Bobcats could win both of those as well.
If I were to even factor in that Texas State could go 2-2 in non-conference play, the only Sun Belt game I think Texas State might not be favored in is on the road against Troy. Louisiana will also be tough, but that’s also a home contest for the Bobcats, so I see Texas State winning there.
There might be a letdown game at some point during the regular season, and maybe that’s on the road against South Alabama. But I certainly don’t see Texas State losing at home to Arkansas State, Southern Miss, or Georgia State or even on the road against Old Dominion or ULM.
I think Texas State has the personnel to have a high-flying offense once again. And with Kinne back, I anticipate the Bobcats will play more consistently in 2024. That, in my mind, will be enough for this loaded roster to win the Sun Belt Championship.
