Week 1 of the 2021 FCS season is here.
All year, Senior FCS Analyst Sam Herder will give his thoughts and score predictions on the week’s biggest games. This week is loaded with games from Wednesday through Sunday, so this article will look at the top games for Thursday/Friday with a second article coming later predicting Saturday/Sunday games.
Let’s predict some scores.
RELATED: JSU vs. UAB Prediction
Predictions Record:
2021: 2-1
Spring 2021: 53-25
2019: 100-42
Week 1
(Thursday/Friday games)
RELATED: Week 1 Notable Games And How To Watch
No. 7 Southern Illinois at SEMO
This is the 89th meeting between SIU and SEMO with SEMO holding a 42-38-8 all-time record. Last October, SIU got a 20-17 home win via a game-winning field goal as time expired.
The Salukis face high expectations after reaching the quarterfinals in the spring and nearly knocking off South Dakota State. But those expectations can take a nosedive quickly if SIU doesn’t play well at SEMO. The Salukis go to Kansas State next week. A loss Saturday and you’re facing an 0-2 start.
SEMO is a good program that will be on the playoff hunt this year. The Redhawks made the postseason in 2018 and 2019, going a combined 1-2. They play tough defense, but SIU has plenty of offensive explosion to lead to a win. Nic Baker was named the starting QB for the Salukis. That led to Stone Labanowitz, who commanded the Salukis down the stretch of the spring season, entering the transfer portal.
If SEMO can establish the run with RB Geno Hess, it can keep SIU’s weapons like Javon Williams Jr. and Avante Cox off the field, making this another competitive game. The Salukis will have too much firepower, though.
Prediction: SIU 28-21
STORY: Delaware Opens CAA Title Defense At Maine
There is a mixed bag of expectations for Delaware. On one hand, you have a team coming off of a semifinal appearance with standouts like QB Nolan Henderson, RB Dejoun Lee, OL David Kroll, and DB Kedrick Whitehead returning. The other side of the coin points to the Blue Hens making the semifinals after edging Sacred Heart, beating a Jacksonville State team that did not deserve the No. 4 seed, and then getting hammered 33-3 at South Dakota State in the semis.
I think Delaware is going to be good this year. I have the Blue Hens as the No. 2 team in the CAA behind James Madison, making the playoffs, and possibly reaching the quarterfinals. However, this game seems to be the classic CAA matchup that just messes everything up. I envision a cluster in the standings, with JMU going 8-0 or 7-1, Delaware going 6-2, and a whole host of teams going 5-3.
Maine is going to be in that 5-3 range, and a win the Black Bears will be hanging their hat on in the jumbled mess of potential CAA at-large bids will be this Week 1 win against Delaware. I’m calling the upset.
Maine has talent. It will be competitive in the CAA. And this will be one of the eye-opening results to begin the season.
Prediction: Maine 28-27
Utah went 3-2 in 2020, winning its final three games. The Utes return 18 starters and have the fifth-best odds to win the Pac-12 title.
Weber State is coming off of a disappointing end to the spring season. After reaching the quarterfinals in 2017 and 2018 and the semifinals in 2019, the Wildcats lost in the first round. They are hoping to show this year that they are getting closer to winning a national title rather than getting further away.
Weber has the defense and style of play to keep this game from getting out of hand. It’s hard to put faith in the offense to score enough points to make it super competitive, though. Some sportsbooks have Utah as a 30 to 35-point favorite. That seems wildly high. I think Weber keeps it a three-possession game.
Prediction: Utah 31-7
No. 20 Austin Peay at No. 18 Chattanooga
Both of these programs look like the No. 1 or No. 2 team in their conference this season. So the result of this game could impact the playoff field. For example, if UTC beats APSU, then finishes second in the SoCon while APSU wins the OVC, that’s a pretty good argument for the Mocs to get an at-large bid.
Or maybe both teams finish second in their conferences behind VMI in the SoCon and SEMO in the OVC. If it’s down to one last at-large bid between an OVC or SoCon team, this game will play a factor.
The Mocs started the spring season 3-0 before resting their starters in a loss to Mercer and then opting out. The Governors started to get rolling late in the spring, winning their last two games against the top two teams in the standings — Jacksonville State and Murray State.
UTC seems poised to return to the playoffs for the first time since a stretch of three straight appearances in 2014, 2015, and 2016. Don’t forget about Ailym Ford, who was one of the best young FCS running backs in 2019. He was hampered by injuries in 2020-21. He is a guy to watch and if he can get going because Austin Peay is pretty good against the run, led by linebacker Jack McDonald.
I’ll take the home team for a close win.
Prediction: Chattanooga 24-21
No. 1 Sam Houston at Northern Arizona
The defending national champions get a good road test to start the season. After a lot of roster turnover in Chris Ball’s first couple of seasons at NAU, he appears to have the players in place to be competitive again. The Lumberjacks made the playoffs in 2017 before going 4-6 in 2018, 4-8 in 2019, and 3-2 in the spring, which included a narrow 28-23 loss to No. 2 Weber State.
NAU has a solid roster and has the home-field advantage of playing at an elevation of 7,000 feet.
SHSU is facing doubts by some on its ability to repeat as FCS champs. Those doubts may increase after this week, not because the Bearkats will lose, but because this should be a competitive game. My No. 1 ranking for SHSU won’t change as long as the Kats win. I think they get the job done, but not in a flashy fashion.
Prediction: SHSU 28-14
No. 11 Eastern Washington at UNLV
This is a golden opportunity for an FCS over FBS win. UNLV is a struggling program with a poor defense. The Rebels allowed 38 points per game in 2020 while going 0-6, allowed 33 PPG in 2019 while going 4-8, and allowed 37 PPG in 2018 while going 4-8.
EWU has arguably the best offensive player in the FCS with QB Eric Barriere. With an experienced offensive line, quality running backs, and big targets like WRs Andrew Boston (6-foot-3) and Talolo Limu-Jones (6-foot-4), the Eagles are going to get their points in this game. If EWU’s defense can get stops, maybe force a turnover or two, the Eagles will get their first FBS win since beating Washington State in 2016.
Prediction: EWU 41-38
Kansas is Kansas. So anytime the Jayhawks face an FCS opponent, it gets our attention. Kansas beat Indiana State 24-17 in 2019, lost 26-23 to Nicholls in 2018, beat SEMO 38-16 in 2017, beat Rhode Island 55-6 in 2016, and lost 41-38 to South Dakota State in 2015.
USD is getting better defensively. And young quarterback Carson Camp has potential. But the Coyotes went backward in 2018 after reaching the playoffs in 2017, and they have stalled since as a middle-of-the-pack MVFC team. An OK MVFC team is good enough to beat Kansas. But I’ll take the Jayhawks here in a low-scoring game.
Prediction: Kansas 17-10
No. 3 South Dakota State at Colorado State
SDSU is the favorite in this game, whether you’re looking at different betting lines or seeing what others are predicting. The Jacks have a Big Ten-level offensive line, two NFL-caliber running backs, and a strong defense with enough depth to not get worn down in the fourth quarter against a team with 22 more scholarships.
Colorado State has struggled, going 3-9, 4-8, and 1-3 in the last three seasons.
A lot of intrigue will be on transfer and new SDSU starting QB Chris Oladokun. His play will determine if the Jacks can make it back to the national title game. We’ll see if he lights it up against the Rams. But even if he doesn’t and plays an average game, that’s good enough for SDSU to get the W.
Prediction: SDSU 24-14
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