Revisiting The Biggest 2023 Group Of Five Upsets

The NCAA Tournament has finally arrived and we know we can expect plenty of upsets in the next three weeks.

While they might not be as common or as dramatic, college football still saw its fair share of upsets last season. They were even better when it was a Group of Five team knocking off a Power Five program.

And in the spirit of March Madness, we’ll revisit the biggest upsets from a G5 school during the 2023 campaign.

Texas State Over Baylor

G.J. Kinne made a splash in his first season with the Bobcats and it all started in Week 1 with a 42-31 victory over Baylor.

College football betting odds had Texas State as a 26.5-point underdog and +1400 on the moneyline — the biggest underdog on this list. The Bobcats scored on their second possession to take a 7-3 lead and never looked back, even leading 21-6 in the first half.

Baylor cut it to 28-21 in the third quarter, but Texas State had an answer for whatever to secure its first win over a Power Five team in school history:

New Mexico State Over Auburn

Auburn thought they had a late-season “bye” against this CUSA squad, but that wasn’t the case.

The Aggies were on a six-game winning streak going into this Week 11 matchup at Jordan-Hare Stadium. They kept it rolling with a 31-10 decisive win over the Tigers as 25.5-point dogs to move to 1-27 all-time against SEC teams.

NMSU held a 10-7 advantage entering the second half but scored a touchdown on two of their three second-half drives. This included a 10-play, 80-yard drive and a 16-play, 83-yard drive that took nearly 10 minutes off the clock. Auburn hardly had any opportunity to make a comeback.

New Mexico Over Fresno State

It’s only fitting that the Lobos land on this list since they’ve been making some noise on the court this March.

But last November, New Mexico was busy picking up a huge conference upset on the gridiron. The Lobos went into Fresno and pulled off a 25-17 win as 22.5-point underdogs. New Mexico was 3-7 and 1-5 in league play entering this game while the Bulldogs were 8-2 and 4-2.

Much like NMSU over Auburn, New Mexico did its best to keep the ball out of Fresno’s hands. Behind Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s 209 rushing yards and two TDs, the Lobos rushed for 345 yards and had 528 total yards to the Bulldogs’ 229.

Hawaii Over Air Force

Did the Falcons have jet lag?

I’m not sure, but they didn’t look like their usual selves in this game. In fact, they didn’t look like their usual selves in the final month of the season after Zac Larrier was injured. This 27-10 Hawaii victory was the second of Air Force’s four straight losses, but that’s not to take anything away from the Rainbow Warriors. They were 22.5-point home underdogs.

Hawaii held the Falcons to just 201 rushing yards and forced four turnovers, including a scoop-and-score from Meki Pei to push the Warriors’ lead to 27-10.

Bowling Green Over Georgia Tech

One of the best things about a small school winning a game they’re “supposed” to lose is when that small school was paid to play in the game. In this case, GT paid BG $1.1M for the Falcons to make the trip to Atlanta. 

Unfazed, BG went into the game as 21-point underdogs and even faced a 14-0 deficit midway through the first quarter before scoring 38 unanswered points. Deshawn Jones Jr. all but sealed it with a pick-six late in the third quarter:

The Falcons controlled the clock by an astounding 42:45 to 17:15, and Terion Stewart rushed for a season-high 138 yards.

Honorable Mentions

Central Michigan Over South Alabama

Now at Sam Houston, QB Jase Bauer scored the game-winning TD with 13 seconds left to give the Chippewas a 34-30 victory. Bauer finished with four rushing TDs and one passing. South Alabama was a 16.5-point favorite.

Wyoming Over Texas Tech

The Red Raiders needed a last-second field goal to send the game to OT but Wyoming still prevailed for the 35-33 win in double OT after overcoming a 17-point first-half deficit. The Cowboys were 13-point underdogs.