A 2-3 week last week drops me to 20-27-1 this season for my weekly Group of Five best bets. That’s atrocious. I know it, you know it, we all know it.
Still, we won’t give up before the end of the season. Here’s to hoping this week’s wagers yield us more luck. Let’s dive into the college football betting odds and find a few winners.
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Louisiana Tech +17 at Liberty
Four of Louisiana Tech’s six losses came by one possession. The other two came to SMU and Nebraska. The Bulldogs might be the most underrated team in CUSA, and they’re more than good enough to hang close with a Liberty team that is 2-2 against the spread at home.
In Liberty’s last two home games, the Flames failed to cover as double-digit favorites. They defeated Sam Houston 21-16, needing a goal-line stand to survive as 21.5-point favorites. Two weeks later they hung on for a 42-35 win over Middle Tennessee as a 15.5-point favorite.
Louisiana Tech has Boise State transfer quarterback Hank Bachmeier healthy again, and he should be able to find holes in Liberty’s average passing defense. Louisiana Tech might not win, but they’ll cover.
MTSU +3 at New Mexico State
New Mexico State is bowl-eligible, which makes for a great Group of Five story. Head coach Jerry Kill deserves ample praise for rebuilding the team into a competitive CUSA squad. Still, I’m not sure if the Aggies are a quality Group of Five team or just the beneficiary of a weak schedule.
Middle Tennessee’s record isn’t pretty at just 2-6, but the Blue Raiders have lost three one-score games. One of those losses came to an impressive Missouri team. The Blue Raiders are better than their record reflects, and they have a chance to pull the upset Saturday.
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Tulane -17 at East Carolina
ECU is terrible, and while Tulane hasn’t dominated opponents lately, this game is a perfect chance to change that. The Pirates have one of the worst offensive success rates in college football, and while the defense can sometimes keep them in games, I think Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt will be too much to handle for 60 minutes.
The Pirates have scored 20 points or more in just two games this season, so if Tulane reaches 30+ points, they’ll have a reasonable chance to cover this number. I wouldn’t be shocked if Tulane gains some much-needed style points Saturday.
Army-Air Force under 31
I’m anticipating a game similar to Air Force-Navy earlier this year, which resulted in a 17-6 Air Force victory. The two service academies should run the ball on just about every play, which should bleed the clock quickly.
Army isn’t particularly strong defensively, but going up against a familiar option attack should help slightly. I think Air Force might cover the nearly three-touchdown spread, but I’m not sure Army will score more than a touchdown in this game. I could easily see Air Force winning 21-7 or 24-3 in a low-possession game.
Arkansas State +9 vs. Louisiana
Arkansas State isn’t a good team, but the Red Wolves aren’t as bad as their first two games indicated. After embarrassing losses to Oklahoma and Memphis, Arkansas State is 4-2 with three of the four wins coming as betting underdogs.
Louisiana is seemingly gaining momentum after recent wins over Texas State and South Alabama, but the Ragin’ Cajuns were actually outgained in each game. Five South Alabama turnovers helped Louisiana upset the Jaguars last weekend, but I’m not sure that type of performance is sustainable.
Arkansas State should keep this game interesting.
Bennett Conlin is a college football contributor for HERO Sports, and he works full-time covering sports betting industry news and legislation for Sports Handle and US Bets.
