How the playoff field changes and takes shape every week is fascinating. So after every weekend of games moving forward, I will predict what the bracket will look like.

Below are predictions for the seeds, auto-bids, at-large bids, the bracket, and which teams are on the bubble.

Notes

These predictions take current playoff resumes and all future scheduled games into consideration. 

This is through the eyes of the playoff committee and what I think they will do.

The seeds associated with teams won’t be the same as my Top 25 rankings. My poll ballot is ranking teams based on performances/resumes so far. This bracketology is projecting ahead.

The Field

2021-2023 Final Bracketology Accuracy: 22/24 seeds correct, 69/72 teams in the field correct

Seeds
1. Montana State
2. North Dakota State
3. South Dakota State
4. Mercer
5. Villanova
6. South Dakota
7. SEMO
8. UC Davis
9. UIW
10. Idaho
11. Chattanooga
12. Central Arkansas
13. Montana
14. William & Mary
15. Tarleton State
16. Abilene Christian

Auto-Bids
Big Sky – Montana State
Big South-OVC – SEMO
CAA – Villanova
MVFC – North Dakota State
NEC – Duquesne
Patriot – Holy Cross
Pioneer – Drake
SoCon – Mercer
Southland – UIW
UAC – Central Arkansas

At-Large Bids 
Ordered from most likely to least likely to get in. Seeded teams who are not their conference’s auto-bid will be at the top.

South Dakota State (seed)
South Dakota (seed)
UC Davis (seed)
Idaho (seed)
Chattanooga (seed)
Montana (seed)
William & Mary (seed)
Tarleton State (seed)
Abilene Christian (seed)
Rhode Island
Last 4 In
North Dakota
ETSU
Western Carolina
Stephen F. Austin

Bubble Teams Left Out
Ordered from the best chance to make the bracket out of this group to the worst chance.

25. UT Martin
26. Richmond
27. McNeese
28. Northern Arizona
29. Lamar

The Bracket

The FCS playoff bracket increased its number of seeded teams from 8 to 16 this year. Seeds 1-8 get a first-round bye, and seeds 9-16 will host first-round games. First-round matchups will still be paired up based on geography. But the second round will no longer be based on regionalization. The No. 16 seed will feed into the No. 1 seed, the No. 15 seed into the No. 2 seed, and so on.

The first round is still regionalized to save on travel costs. The committee tries to utilize as many bus trips (400 miles or less) as possible while avoiding regular-season rematches.

The committee avoids conference matchups in the first round if the two teams played each other in the regular season. However, if two conference teams did not play each other during the regular season, they may be paired up in the first round. Regular-season non-conference rematches should be avoided in the first round.

If a conference has four or more teams in the bracket, the committee can add an extra flight to avoid having all teams on one side of the bracket as long as it doesn’t impact or change the seeding.

The order of seeds is not determined by regionalization.

The Explanation

This section will typically have between 1,000-2,000 words breaking down each team, their current resume, and their future games and why it has a pathway to a seed, an at-large bid, etc.

Keep in mind that this bracketology factors in future games as well. So in this instance, I’m projecting Montana State will go 12-0 to earn the No. 1 seed. And I’m projecting NDSU to win the MVFC. Just to use those two as examples.

We obviously have a lot of games left, so this is going to be fluid and move around each week. Some will say doing a bracketology in October is pointless. Those people also probably aren’t fun to hang out with in social settings. It’s an entertaining exercise to see how each week of results shapes the playoff picture. And it also gives fan bases an idea of “This is where we’re at now, this is where other teams are at to keep an eye on, this is our remaining schedule, and if we win out or lose just one more game we can get a seed in this range.”

If a team is on the bubble, this will give those fans an idea of what teams to keep an eye on and where their resume is at. Same with Top 2 seeds, Top 4 seeds, Top 8, etc.

As we get closer to Selection Sunday, I’ll dive more into details on resumes, ranked wins, strength of schedule, upcoming games, etc. to explain why I think Team A will be the No. 1 seed, Team B will be the No. 8 seed, Team C is left on the bubble, and so on.

Here’s a look at what future bracketology story breakdowns will look like.

The post 2024 FCS Bracketology 1.0 appeared first on HERO Sports.

Let’s predict some scores.

Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 37-15
2023 Record: 96-42

Week 7 Top 5 Games

Week 7 Viewing Guide

No. 7 Idaho at No. 3 Montana State

Montana State has the best rushing attack in the FCS, led by future NFL prospects on the o-line Marcus Wehr and Conner Moore. Julius Davis, MSU’s top running back last year, hasn’t played yet this fall. Neither has All-American center Justus Perkins. But Scottre Humphrey (668 yards, 8 TDs) and Adam Jones (418 yards, 4 TDs) have formed a good 1-2 punch. The Bobcats are averaging 303.3 rushing yards per game, which is No. 2 in the FCS behind the option attack of Davidson.

Tommy Mellott is making good decisions, both with his arm (12 TDs, 0 INT) and his legs by not putting himself in harm’s way. It’ll be interesting to see if that “business decision” mindset (which is what he and MSU need) continues in the heat of the moment during tight games. Does MSU fall in love with the QB run game again when they need a big third-down conversion or a score in the red zone?

Idaho has one of the best defensive front seven in the FCS, led by LB Jaxton Eck (45 tackles), DE Keyshawn James-Newby (8 sacks), and DT Dallas Afalava (3.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks). The Vandals own the No. 8 rush defense, allowing 93.3 YPG.

This is now Idaho’s fifth straight ranked FCS opponent after starting the season with back-to-back FBS games. The Vandals have key players sidelined with injuries, while other key players are playing but fighting through injuries. MSU, while also dealing with some injuries, hasn’t been tested against FCS competition and has been able to spread the reps around.

I think Idaho may run into a buzzsaw here. The injuries, the road fatigue, the choppy QB play, the Bobcat Stadium environment, the revenge factor for MSU, and the Cats just being that good will be overwhelming.

Montana State gets a statement victory and wins by three scores.

RELATED: What’s At Stake For MSU vs. Idaho?

Prediction: Montana State 35-17

No. 24 Northern Arizona at No. 14 Montana

A pivotal game for both squads.

NAU wants to prove it is for real after beating then-No. 10 Sac State and losing to No. 10 Idaho by just one score despite losing starting quarterback Ty Pennington in the first half due to injury.

It can also be a turning point for Montana. While having an elite offense, the Grizzlies have allowed 35, 49, and 55 points in the last three games, jarring numbers for this program. Last week saw a 55-48 loss to unranked Weber State. At 4-2, another loss this week puts a serious question mark next to Montana’s playoff hopes. A win sets up the Griz for a likely 7-2 record heading into the final three games of the regular season.

The status of Pennington is unknown as of this writing. He is listed on this week’s depth chart, for whatever that is worth. Regardless, a motivated Montana defense with perhaps a simpler game plan looks to take a step in the right direction. They don’t have to be dominant like last year, just show signs of improvement as the offense is one of the best in the country.

Simply put, it’s hard to see Montana losing in consecutive weeks at home.

Prediction: Montana 38-27

No. 2 North Dakota State at Southern Illinois

Quarterback health is a storyline going into this one.

SIU is down to its third-string QB. Starter DJ Williams has been sidelined with a hand injury. And last week, Hunter Simmons suffered a broken leg. True freshman Jake Curry will make his starting debut on Saturday.

For NDSU, Walter Payton Award frontrunner Cam Miller exited last week’s game and it didn’t look good as he went back to the locker room with an ankle injury. But the x-ray was clean. It appears he’ll give it a go this week. At least that’s what he and head coach Tim Polasek are saying publicly. A sprained ankle could linger, and does NDSU really want to put their franchise QB out there at less than 100 percent with No. 1 SDSU coming up next week? Or do you fall into a trap game if you do sit Miller more out of precaution than necessity?

The Bison are clicking on all fronts right now, coming off of back-to-back dominant wins over ranked opponents. And SIU is sliding the other way, getting bitten by so many injuries across the 2-deep. We’ll see if the Salukis can put together a spirited effort in front of their Homecoming crowd. But NDSU will be too much and pull away in the second half.

Prediction: NDSU 34-14

Nicholls at No. 15 UIW

Last year, Nicholls made a statement in its 45-32 win over UIW, a game it led 45-19 early in the fourth quarter. UIW couldn’t stop the run, allowing 331 yards.

UIW looks improved against the run this year, and it’ll have to contend with Collin Guggenheim again, who is up to 456 rushing yards and five touchdowns. The Cardinals are on a two-game winning streak after losing to No. 1 SDSU and a healthy/ranked SIU team. They dominated Northern Arizona (which has aged well with NAU now ranked) and Prairie View A&M.

Nicholls also rides a two-game winning streak, beating Mississippi Valley State and Southern by a combined score of 117-7. This is after an 0-3 start with two FBS losses and a loss to ranked Sac State.

If UIW wants to keep climbing the rankings, it needs a win here. Zach Calzada and his two stud targets Jalen Walthall and Roy Alexander hit on some explosive plays to win a nail-biter in the final minute.

RELATED: Resumes For The Top 10 Ranked FCS Teams

Prediction: UIW 31-28

Princeton at No. 8 Mercer

A fun Ivy League vs. SoCon matchup.

Princeton is currently 1-2, beating Howard and losing to Lehigh and Columbia.

Mercer is 5-0 with two then-ranked wins over Chattanooga and Wofford. The Bears are elite defensively. They rank No. 1 in FCS rushing defense, allowing an incredible 29.2 yards per game and 1.17 yards per attempt. Their 7.8 points allowed per game is No. 2, trailing Butler’s 6.0.

Veterans Isaac Dowling (28 tackles) and Ken Standley (24 tackles, 3.5 TFLs) lead the defense at linebacker while LB Marques Thomas (24 tackles, 6 TFLs) has also played at a high level.

The offense has been solid as well, scoring 32.8 points per game. Mercer is too complete of a team to drop this one.

Prediction: Mercer 28-10

More FCS Predictions

No. 23 Chattanooga at Furman

Chattanooga came back on the national radar after beating ranked ETSU last week. The Mocs are now 2-3 overall after a 0-3 start, although two losses were to FBS opponents and the third a one-score loss to Mercer, who is now ranked in the Top 10. Furman has fallen off some after its quarterfinal run last year. The Paladins are 2-3, but they’ll be a tough out for any SoCon team in the competitive league. Chattanooga wins, but it’ll be a battle.

Prediction: Chattanooga 24-17

Tennessee Tech at No. 11 SEMO

Tennessee Tech is 2-3 overall, but it is 2-1 vs. FCS competition and 2-0 in the Big South-OVC standings, beating TN State and Gardner-Webb. SEMO will be too much, though. The Redhawks are 5-1 overall with a near FBS win. Veteran QB Paxton DeLaurent is playing at an All-American level, throwing for 1,669 yards, 16 touchdowns, and four interceptions. Dorian Anderson is already up to 572 receiving yards and six scores.

Prediction: SEMO 35-21

Stephen F. Austin at No. 22 Lamar

Lamar is 3-2 overall and 3-1 vs. the FCS, climbing into the rankings after it beat then-No. 20 Weber State 17-16. But it hasn’t looked great since, beating Texas Southern 20-17 and losing to then-No. 7 Central Arkansas 34-14. TSU is currently 2-3 with only one D1 win. SFA has looked solid in recent weeks, improving to 3-2 with two dominant wins over Northern Colorado and Northwestern State. The two losses were competitive games at FBS North Texas and at McNeese, who has been ranked this year. My upset picks haven’t hit at a great rate this year, but let’s go with SFA knocking off ranked Lamar.

Prediction: SFA 28-24

Brown at No. 19 Rhode Island

Brown is out to a 2-1 start, beating Georgetown and Harvard before losing to Bryant. Rhody is off to a strong start record-wise, sitting at 4-1 overall and 4-0 vs. the FCS. Rhody is definitely a rankable team, but you can poke at its close wins — beating Holy Cross (2-4) by three points, Campbell (2-4) by 12, LIU (0-6) by seven, and needing two overtimes to beat Hampton (3-3) by two. Rhody keeps the winning going this week. This could be a playoff team this year, but there are currently no ranked teams on the schedule (although at FBS-transitioning Delaware will be a good test).

The CAA being such a big league can be a blessing for the league. Unbalanced scheduling will lead to several teams with playoff-worthy records. But it could be a curse, too. How does the playoff committee view an 8-win CAA team that didn’t play any ranked opponents? It’ll be fascinating to see play out in what could be a packed bubble with the 12-game season.

Prediction: Rhody 31-17

Youngstown State at No. 1 South Dakota State

Hobo Day and a week before going to No. 2 NDSU? A trap game for the Jackrabbits? Maybe a fair thought in the preseason, but YSU has underwhelmed this year at 2-4. SDSU made a statement last week at UNI and should roll again this weekend.

Prediction: SDSU 35-10

The post Week 7 FCS Predictions appeared first on HERO Sports.

Let’s predict some scores.

Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 32-11
2023 Record: 96-42

Week 6 Top 5 Games

Week 6 Viewing Guide

No. 7 North Dakota at No. 2 North Dakota State

Perhaps the biggest regular-season win in the last few years that reverberated the most across the FCS was when UND walloped NDSU 49-24 last fall. The UND win/NDSU loss itself maybe wasn’t a surprise, but how the Fighting Hawks won caused many around the FCS to shovel dirt on the Bison dynasty.

But maybe the shine of that win dimmed for UND after the Hawks went flat from there, exiting the playoffs in the first round at home while the Bison rebounded just fine and made a run to the semifinals.

UND now looks to show that it wasn’t a one-time performance. That it’s here as an FCS contender and its No. 7 ranking is deserved. NDSU eyes revenge for that embarrassing loss, to silence any doubters after an up-and-down defensive non-conference slate, and to show this team is locked and loaded for another national title.

It’s the most intriguing FCS vs. FCS game so far this season.

UND’s rushing attack is legit behind a new-look offensive line and running backs Isaiah Smith, Gaven Ziebarth, and Sawyer Seidl. And Simon Romfo has shown he can hit a nice deep ball to Bo Belquist (24 catches for 478 yards and 5 TDs) to loosen up the defense. We’ll see if NDSU can string together back-to-back strong defensive performances after some struggles in the non-conference.

Cam Miller (completing 78.3% of his passes for 1,143 yards, nine touchdowns, and zero interceptions, plus 190 rushing yards and five TDs) and the NDSU offense are a smooth operation, executing at a high level. In a game with limited possessions, I’m not sure UND will be able to garner enough stops. It’s hard to see the Hawks going into the Fargodome and getting a W as the sold-out crowd may be a bit more juiced up for this one.

Prediction: NDSU 35-24

No. 18 Illinois State at No. 19 Southern Illinois

Both teams are beat up, and both teams really need a win.

SIU is on a two-game losing streak, losing by 17 points to SEMO and by 29 at South Dakota. The Salukis are now 2-3 overall and 2-2 vs. the FCS. ISU is 3-2 overall and 3-1 vs. the FCS, losing 42-10 last week vs. NDSU.

Last week at this time, I was impressed with Illinois State’s 31-7 win over Eastern Illinois, a team that finished 8-3 last year and returned most of its starters. That win hasn’t aged well after EIU lost to Lindenwood.

Hunter Simmons has stepped in as SIU’s starting QB due to injury. He’s played well, throwing for 341 yards vs. SEMO and 306 yards vs. USD. But SIU’s rushing attack just can’t get going, running for 60 yards on 25 attempts against USD and 62 yards on 30 attempts against SEMO.

Illinois State allows 244 passing yards per game, ranking No. 92 in the FCS. SIU gets back in the win column at home behind the arm of Simmons.

Prediction: SIU 28-21

No. 5 Central Arkansas at No. 16 Abilene Christian

UCA at ACU in a UAC matchup.

Central Arkansas continues to look like this year’s southern team that can challenge the Midwest powers. The Bears are 4-1 overall and should be 5-0 with an FBS win. They have a Top 1 or 2 FCS offensive player in running back ShunDerrick Powell — 91 rushes for 810 yards and 10 touchdowns while adding 12 catches for 195 yards and two touchdowns. And they have the best defensive player in the FCS in NFL Draft prospect David Walker — 22 tackles, 10.5 TFLs, 6.5 sacks, four quarterback hurries, and three pass breakups.

Abilene Christian has had a nice rise into the rankings. The Wildcats are still looking for a signature win, though. They have beaten West Georgia, Northern Colorado, and Utah Tech. ACU is on the Top 25 radar due to its overtime loss to FBS Texas Tech and its near comeback win over Top 5 Idaho. Maverick McIvor is playing well, throwing for 1,100 yards, eight touchdowns, and two interceptions in four games.

We could see a good amount of points here. But I trust Central Arkansas to get more stops defensively for a road win.

Prediction: Central Arkansas 42-31

No. 25 Northern Arizona at No. 10 Idaho

Make that back-to-back FBS games and now four-straight ranked FCS opponents for Idaho. NAU slides into the Top 25 after knocking off No. 10 Sacramento State 34-16.

Idaho looks to rebound from its first FCS loss of the season. Quarterback Jack Wagner is expected to play after leaving the UC Davis game, reaggravating his shoulder injury.

NAU has been Jekyll and Hyde in recent years. The Lumberjacks have pulled some big upsets. They also haven’t been consistently good. A week before beating No. 10 Sac State, they lost 38-14 to No. 15 UIW.

NAU’s defense has been playing tough, making this a challenge for an Idaho offense that has stalled out at times and has been hot during other points in games. Just its second home game in six weeks and it being Idaho’s Homecoming, the Vandals get back on track with its third ranked win.

Prediction: Idaho 28-17

Chattanooga at No. 23 ETSU

ETSU has turned into America’s team. Not only did the Bucs have casual FCS fans rooting for them in their near win over No. 2 NDSU, but their story was spread across the country of last week’s harrowing travel to The Citadel.

They look to add another quality win this week against Chattanooga, who is just outside of the Top 25. The Mocs may be 1-3, but two of those losses are against FBS opponents (including a three-point loss to Georgia State). And the third loss is a one-score game to Mercer, who is now ranked No. 11.

ETSU has it rolling right now. And it’s hard to see it stopping at home. The defense, led by Ray Coney and Chris Hope, looks to slow down what can be an explosive Chattanooga offense. Meanwhile, the offensive ground game led by Bryson Irby (480 yards, 5 TDs) can help control the time of possession.

Prediction: ETSU 28-24

More FCS Predictions

Weber State at No. 8 Montana

Montana’s offense is legit, scoring 46 and 52 points in the last two games. But its defense is leaky, allowing 35 and 49 points in those contests. Weber’s offense doesn’t have quite the explosiveness of Western Carolina or Eastern Washington, and it has dropped two games to Southland opponents who were unranked at the time. Montana improves to 5-1 as things start to click defensively. The struggles may be more Xs and Os than Jimmys and Joes.

Prediction: Montana 35-21

No. 6 Villanova at Stony Brook

How about Stony Brook? The Seawolves are 4-1 overall and 4-0 vs. the FCS. They are still searching for a signature win, though. Stonehill, Fordham, Campbell, and Morgan State aren’t needle-movers. Villanova is also 4-1 overall and 4-0 vs. the FCS. It is also lacking a signature performance that stamps itself as a Top 6 FCS team. I don’t see Stony Brook generating enough offense to get a win here. Nova has allowed 17, 3, 13, and 10 points against FCS opponents. If the offense can finish drives, the Wildcats are a scary, complete team.

Prediction: Villanova 28-17

No. 1 South Dakota State at Northern Iowa

Both teams are coming off of bye weeks. We’ll see what personnel changes and adjustments they make. The Panthers are 2-2 overall with two FBS losses. The two wins are over non-scholarship Pioneer teams, including an iffy 17-10 win at St. Thomas, who is 1-3 with a D2 loss. SDSU’s defense and run game looked strong in the non-conference. The passing attack was choppy, though. Playing at UNI is always a challenge, but I expect a clean SDSU performance and win. The Jackrabbits look to be pretty healthy, getting multiple key players back from injury after the bye.

Prediction: SDSU 35-17

No. 13 SEMO at Eastern Illinois

EIU’s loss to Lindenwood last week is a concern, especially for a veteran team. SEMO, meanwhile, has it rolling with a 4-1 record and a 4-0 mark vs. the FCS. Paxton DeLaurent continues to play at a high level, throwing for 1,305 yards, 13 touchdowns, and three interceptions. SEMO remains undefeated against FCS competition.

Prediction: SEMO 38-21

The post Week 6 FCS Predictions appeared first on HERO Sports.

Let’s predict some scores.

Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 24-10
2023 Record: 96-42

Week 5 Top 5 Games

Week 5 Viewing Guide

No. 12 Mercer at No. 23 Wofford

Mercer is off to a hot start, sitting at 4-0 with four FCS wins over Presbyterian, Bethune-Cookman, then-No. 14 Chattanooga, and The Citadel. Its defense had been dominant, allowing nine points per game, 32.5 rushing yards per game, and 1.2 rushing yards per attempt.

Wofford has had a nice start to get itself into the Top 25 rankings. The Terriers are 2-1, beating Gardner-Webb and then-No. 14 Richmond before losing to then-No. 13 William & Mary 28-21.

The race for a SoCon title and potentially multiple playoff at-large bids will be tight. And these two will certainly be factors in that race. I don’t see Wofford’s offense having enough juice to win this game, averaging 22.7 points per game. The Terriers will have to rely on the young arm of quarterback Amari Odom, who has had a good start this year — 709 passing yards, 4 TDs, 0 INT.

But Mercer’s defense will be too much to find consistent success on, led by Isaac Dowling, Marques Thomas, and Ken Standley.

Prediction: Mercer 28-21

No. 2 North Dakota State at No. 18 Illinois State

Illinois State is without three of its best players — RB Mason King, OL Hunter Zambrano, and OLB Amir Abdullah. Yet the Redbirds are still 3-1 overall and 3-0 vs. the FCS. Last week was their most impressive performance, beating Eastern Illinois 31-7. EIU may not have been ranked, but it returned a bulk of its starters from last year’s 8-3 team that beat Illinois State.

NDSU, also 3-1 overall and 3-0 vs. the FCS, has looked great offensively, led by Walter Payton Award contender Cam Miller at quarterback, the emergence of freshman running back CharMar Brown, quality depth at wide receiver, and an o-line playing well as it breaks in three new starters. The defense has its concerns, though. The safety play hasn’t been strong, and the front seven hasn’t lived up to its preseason hype yet.

ISU’s rushing attack could cause trouble for the Bison. Wenkers Wright has stepped up to average 111.3 rushing yards per game. QB Tommy Rittenhouse also has some running ability. NDSU ranks 58th in FCS run defense (151.5 YPG). Its tackling grade ranks No. 83 on PFF.

It’s a great road test for the Bison, who took a bit last year to get rolling. We’ll see if an early conference loss or two occurs like in 2023. But I don’t think it will happen this week, as NDSU’s depth will take over in the second half on a beat-up ISU squad.

Prediction: NDSU 31-21

No. 17 Southern Illinois at No. 5 South Dakota

While my overall predictions have been solid this year, I just haven’t quite gotten my finger on Southern Illinois. I am 1-2 when picking SIU games, incorrectly picking them to lose to UIW and beat SEMO.

Things don’t get much easier this week as we just don’t know a whole lot about South Dakota. We know the Yotes are talented and experienced based on who they bring back from last year’s quarterfinal squad. We also know success doesn’t always carry over to the next year. USD has yet to play a scholarship FCS team. It has wins over D2 Northern State and non-scholarship Drake, a competitive FBS loss at Wisconsin, and a canceled FCS game at Portland State.

SIU will be without its starting QB DJ Williams due to a hand injury. Hunter Simmons stepped in last week in the SEMO loss and went 28/48 for 341 yards and a touchdown. SIU’s ground game struggled to get going without Williams, though, who still leads the team in rushing yards. Last week, the Salukis gained just 62 yards on 30 rushes.

The Salukis will have to try and beat USD through the air, which will prove to be tough. USD owns the No. 22 PFF coverage grade. And Mike Reid, a Monmouth transfer, is playing like a top cornerback in the FCS. Time of possession could favor USD in this one if the Coyotes can get off the field on third downs, and then establish the run offensively.

Prediction: USD 35-27

No. 19 Lamar at No. 7 Central Arkansas

Lamar has had a great turnaround in Pete Rossomando’s first two seasons as head coach. From 2-9 in 2021 and 1-10 in 2022, the Cardinals went 6-5 in Rossomando’s debut season in 2023. They are out to a 3-1 start this fall, including 3-0 vs. the FCS and a ranked win over Weber State. The lone loss was a 34-27 game at Texas State, one of the top Group of Five schools.

Central Arkansas has looked the part of a title contender. Also 3-1, the Bears have dominated three FCS opponents and should have beaten FBS Arkansas State if not for an errant replay overturn. They have a Buck Buchanan Award frontrunner in DE David Walker (8.5 TFLs, 5.5 sacks, 4 QB hurries). And a Walter Payton Award contender in RB ShunDerrick Powell (623 rush yards, 8 TDs).

Plus, Darius Hale (294 rush yards, 8 TDs) is a top-graded PFF FCS running back, and Will McElvain (854 yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT) is a veteran quarterback.

This is a good opportunity for a ranked win on UCA’s playoff resume. If the Bears play to their potential every week, we could be looking at a Top 4 seed by November.

Prediction: UCA 38-21

No. 4 Idaho at No. 14 UC Davis

What a first five games for Idaho — two FBS opponents and three ranked FCS opponents.

The Vandals look legit on defense, strong on special teams, and solid on offense considering their backup QB Jack Wagner has been thrown into a starting role. Idaho has found playmakers at running back and receiver, while its o-line looks much improved.

This is now Idaho’s fourth road game in five weeks. Can the Vandals keep their momentum going of getting more first-place votes week after week in the national polls? Or is a letdown game coming?

The matchup may be favorable this week at UC Davis.

The Aggies want to establish the run and get All-American RB Lan Larison going. He is averaging 98.3 rushing yards per game so far this fall. But Idaho’s front seven is stout, perhaps the best in the FCS. The Vandals allow just 104 rushing yards per game, an impressive figure especially considering the level of competition. If UC Davis pulls off this upset, it needs Miles Hastings to take his game to another level. The Aggies aren’t great at consistently stretching a defense vertically. Hastings has thrown for 1,082 yards, but he has a 6:5 TD:INT ratio.

I don’t see UC Davis finding enough success on this Idaho defense. And the Vandals may find themselves in a lower-scoring game, but they will hit on enough explosive plays to pull out a way.

Prediction: Idaho 24-17

More FCS Predictions

Southeastern Louisiana at No. 16 Tarleton State

Tarleton State RB Kayvon Britten must be salivating after watching film. Last week, SDSU’s Kirby Vorhees rushed five times for 179 yards and three touchdowns on SLU’s defense. Also last week, Britten had 21 carries for 273 yards and four TDs at North Alabama. He leads the nation with 660 rushing yards this season, and Britten will continue his All-American-level season as Tarleton remains undefeated vs. FCS opponents.

Prediction: Tarleton State 41-21

ETSU at The Citadel

I’m a bit surprised that ETSU is still not ranked in the national polls. I had the Bucs No. 20 on my ballot last week and No. 18 this week. They nearly beat No. 2 NDSU, and then I was just as impressed with their 34-14 road win at Elon, a team I was high on. Jaylen King looked great, going 17/28 for 233 yards while rushing for 93 yards and two scores. ETSU keeps it rolling over The Citadel, a team you can never overlook in SoCon play.

Prediction: ETSU 35-17

No. 8 Montana at Eastern Washington

In my Montana preseason game-by-game predictions article, I had the Grizzlies going 10-2. I picked them to lose this game, but that was more of an “I think Montana will lose an early contest that we don’t expect, but I don’t think it’ll be against Missouri State or Western Carolina at home, and I have too many questions about UND, so let’s go with EWU” kind of prediction.

Turns out it was the UND game that was Montana’s early season loss. I think the Griz go on a nice run here to open Big Sky play, continuing to get better offensively and defensively as they rise in the rankings again. Montana has never won on EWU’s red turf since it was installed in 2010. That changes Saturday against a 2024 EWU team that underwhelmed in the non-conference.

Prediction: Montana 38-27

Portland State at Chattanooga

We don’t get many Big Sky vs. SoCon non-conference matchups. I wrote about why this game was so intriguing during the offseason. To sum it up, Big Sky followers believe the SoCon is overrated and its non-playoff teams could beat the SoCon’s best teams. SoCon followers believe the Big Sky is overrated and overvalued by poll voters and the playoff committee, which leads the high seeds and home games.

Chattanooga is a top SoCon team, and Portland State can be a middle-of-the-pack Big Sky team. So we’ll see.

Both squads are 0-3 with the two toughest FCS strength of schedules so far. I’ll go with the home team here. The Mocs are still in the playoff hunt despite its record (two FBS losses), so this is a must-win.

Prediction: Chattanooga 31-21

The post Week 5 FCS Predictions appeared first on HERO Sports.

Let’s predict some scores.

Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 18-7
2023 Record: 96-42

Week 4 Top 5 Games

Week 4 Viewing Guide

No. 24 Western Carolina at No. 9 Montana

WCU got a much-needed victory last week, winning 24-17 at No. 22 Elon. It was a good bounce-back victory after a disappointing home loss to unranked Campbell. That loss came after WCU looked good against FBS No. 24 NC State, leading 21-17 in the third quarter before losing 38-21. So it’s been an up-and-down start for the Catamounts after high preseason expectations.

The same can be said for Montana’s start to the season. The Grizzlies are 2-1, beating Missouri State in a closer game than some expected, losing at then-No. 20 North Dakota after holding a big halftime lead, and then beating overmatched Morehead State 59-2. Montana has a very high ceiling in the national title picture. But it’s been a bit slow out of the gates. The defense is still gelling, while the offense has shown glimpses of being really good. It’s also struggled with inconsistencies, although a shuffling of the o-line and at the center position could solve some pass protection issues.

Cole Gonzales was considered a top returning quarterback in the FCS this fall. He was sharp against NC State and Elon, but he threw four interceptions in the loss to Campbell. It’s a phenomenal test for Gonzales, going up against a pressure-heavy Montana defense in front of the noisiest FCS crowd.

I think WCU can move the ball and get some points on the board. But WCU’s defense, while fast and athletic, could wear down as Montana looks to control the clock. Montana has a loaded running back room to lean on, led by one of the best backs in the FCS, Eli Gillman. Time of possession and a timely turnover or two leads to a Griz win.

Prediction: Montana 35-27

No. 21 SEMO at No. 7 Southern Illinois

The Salukis made a statement in the first half last week, leading No. 12 UIW 35-14. UIW scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to make it a 35-28 final. SIU was dealt with some bad news a couple of days after the game, though. Starting quarterback DJ Williams will miss time, needing surgery on his right hand. He was just coming off of an electric game, throwing for 301 yards while rushing for 79. Hunter Simmons, last year’s backup, will take over as the starter.

Shoutout to SIU for challenging itself in a nice non-conference slate as it hosts another ranked opponent this week in the “War for the Wheel.”

SEMO comes in with a 2-1 record, including a near win at FBS New Mexico State. After a solid rushing game in Week 0, the Redhawks have really leaned on the arm of Paxton DeLaurent. The veteran standout attempted 45 passes at NMSU (completing 27 for 295 yards and a touchdown) and 63 passes against UT Martin (completing 34 for 376 yards and six TDs).

Teams have found success throwing the ball on SIU’s defense. The Salukis are allowing 335.3 passing yards per game compared to 101 rushing YPG. But SIU has also gotten after the quarterback, racking up 13 sacks in three games. Ben Bogle has emerged as an early candidate for the Buck Buchanan Award with 28 tackles, nine TFLs, and 5.5 sacks.

If SIU can establish a ground game on a SEMO defense that is allowing 206.3 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per attempt, it’ll ease Simmons in his first start. And if SIU can make SEMO one-dimensional offensively, I think its defense can pin its ears back and get DeLaurent on the ground often via sacks, hurries, and hits.

Prediction: SIU 28-24

No. 4 Idaho at No. 19 Abilene Christian

ACU had an impressive first two weeks of the season, taking FBS Texas Tech to overtime before losing 52-51 and then beating West Georgia 38-24. UWG had just beaten Samford. But last week, the Wildcats edged out Northern Colorado 24-22, a team that is a combined 0-14 in 2024 and 2023.

They now welcome an Idaho team that looks like the most complete squad in the FCS. The Vandals battled FBS No. 3 Oregon into the fourth quarter, beat FBS Wyoming, and then throttled No. 17 UAlbany 41-13.

ACU QB Maverick McIvor has been terrific, throwing for 1,032 yards, seven touchdowns, and zero interceptions through three games. They’ll go up against the best defense in the FCS. Idaho is allowing 16.7 points per game and 103.7 rushing yards per game (keep in mind the teams Idaho has played when comparing statistics). They are also getting after the QB with 11 sacks. Keyshawn James-Newby has six of those.

Idaho wants to control the clock, keeping ACU’s explosive offense off the field. The Vandals will look to establish the run and keep backup-QB-turned-starter Jack Wagner comfortable. They have found a nice 1-2 punch at RB with Elisha Cummings and Nate Thomas, two guys that can get going against an ACU team allowing 168 rushing yards per game. I expect another solid showing from Idaho’s o-line opening up running lanes. And Idaho’s defense will be able to contain ACU’s passing attack with some assistance from its d-line getting the Wildcats out of sync.

Prediction: Idaho 31-21

Eastern Illinois at No. 17 Illinois State

Both teams entered this fall with high expectations.

Illinois State returned its standout running back, top receivers, three starting offensive line, and its top seven tacklers after going 6-5 last year with multiple close losses. EIU finished 8-3 last season and returned an experienced OL, its All-Conference QB/RB/WR, and nine of its top 12 tacklers.

But neither have looked the part just yet.

Illinois State lost 40-0 at FBS Iowa, beat North Alabama 24-17, and then was in a back-and-forth battle against a struggling Western Illinois program before pulling away for a 51-34 win. EIU is 1-2 with two FBS losses. And in its FCS win, it only beat Indiana State 27-20.

ISU is battling injuries to key players. Standout running back Mason King and All-American offensive lineman Hunter Zambrano are out for the season. And All-American LB Amir Abdullah is missing time due to injury.

The Redbirds haven’t looked strong on defense, and EIU’s experienced offense led by QB Pierce Holley and RB MJ Flowers can take advantage. I’ll call the upset here. If you can even call it an upset. Keep in mind that EIU beat ISU 14-13 last year, and the Panthers have just as much returning experience on the field.

Prediction: EIU 21-17

ETSU at Elon

ETSU looks to prove last week’s showing against NDSU wasn’t a one-time performance, while Elon looks to bounce back from its loss to Western Carolina.

Elon’s defense, which allows only 110 rushing yards per game, looks to make ETSU beat them through the air. Now, ETSU almost knocked off the Bison despite its passing attack looking below average. Jaylen King finished 6/15 passing for 113 yards. But the Bucs rushed for 270 yards, averaging 7.1 yards per carry.

Elon’s strong front seven should be able to limit the rushing attack, forcing King to make throws on a talented secondary. Offensively for the Phoenix, watch for TJ Thomas Jr. to continue his strong season. He’s already rushed for 294 yards and two touchdowns through three games.

Coming off of an emotional loss, I can see ETSU getting out to a slow start. Can the Bucs match the energy they played with against No. 2 NDSU compared to unranked Elon? Is their tank on empty, physically and emotionally?

The Phoenix will build an early two-score lead and then hang on in the second half for the W. Had they been able to finish promising drives last week, Elon could be 2-1 right now instead of 1-2. Expect a cleaner performance this week.

Prediction: Elon 28-24

More FCS Predictions

Towson at No. 2 NDSU

A more intriguing game than anticipated after NDSU barely beat ETSU last week while Towson should have beaten No. 5 Villanova if not for two missed field goals late in the game. The Bison defense has had issues in two of the first three games, and Towson could pose some problems. But a motivated NDSU squad at home should get a win on Saturday.

Prediction: NDSU 35-17

Furman at No. 12 William & Mary

Another good CAA-SoCon matchup. W&M looks to get back to where it was in 2022, and that’s the quarterfinals. Furman is coming off of a 2023 quarterfinal run with plenty of departures to replace. The Paladins haven’t looked the part with their 1-2 start, losing at FBS Ole Miss and then suffering a tough-looking 24-20 loss vs. Charleston Southern. They rebounded last week to beat Stetson 48-7. W&M has looked solid, starting 2-1 with an FBS loss to Coastal Carolina and beating two SoCon teams, VMI 41-7 and Wofford 28-21.

Prediction: W&M 31-17

No. 1 SDSU at Southeastern Louisiana

There was plenty to poke at in SDSU’s 24-3 win over D2 Augustana. The Jackrabbits eye a complete performance over a proud SLU program that is typically in the playoff hunt. SDSU’s run defense looks stout, and SLU hasn’t looked too comfortable throwing the ball.

Prediction: SDSU 31-14

Northern Arizona at No. 15 UIW

UIW is on a two-game losing streak, but it pushed two Top 10 teams at SDSU and SIU. NAU has looked solid so far, playing FBS No. 20 Arizona tough in a 22-10 loss and then beating up on Lincoln and Utah Tech. Expect a tight ball game here, but UIW gets back in the win column.

Prediction: UIW 28-21

The post Week 4 FCS Predictions appeared first on HERO Sports.

Let’s predict some scores.

Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 7-1
2023 Record: 96-42

Week 2

Week 2 Viewing Guide

UT Martin at SEMO

The Big South-OVC should be an interesting race. Eastern Illinois returns most of its starting lineup after a breakout season. SEMO has veteran leaders like QB Paxton DeLaurent, OL Zack Gieg, and LB Bryce Norman. Tennessee State is on the rise. And Gardner-Webb looks to stay atop the standings. But it was UT Martin who got the No. 1 slot in the preseason poll.

It’ll be a fun QB battle on Saturday between UT Martin’s Kinkead Dent and SEMO’s DeLaurent. Dent threw for 2,295 yards, 25 TDs, and eight interceptions last fall after he transferred in from Ole Miss. He’s a big reason why the Skyhawks are preseason No. 1. In the season-opener last week, Dent went 7/14 for 87 yards in a 41-6 loss at Kansas State.

DeLaurent, meanwhile, looks to replicate his 2022 season when he threw for 2,684 yards, 19 touchdowns, and six interceptions. He missed half of last season with a shoulder injury.

SEMO is 1-1 but should be 2-0 with an FBS win. The Redhawks led 16-10 in the fourth quarter before New Mexico State came back to win 23-16. DeLaurent went 27/45 for 295 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in the loss. A positive was he returned after leaving the Week 0 game (a win over North Alabama) with a shoulder injury. He was 14/17 passing for 96 yards and a touchdown in that matchup.

SEMO had a tough time closing out close games last year. It happened again last week. Fortune flips this week at home and the Redhawks pull out a nail-biting win.

Prediction: SEMO 34-31

Campbell at No. 17 Western Carolina

Two teams that battled FBS opponents tough last week. Campbell lost to Liberty 41-24, while WCU lost 38-21 at FBS No. 24 NC State in a game it led 21-17 entering the fourth quarter.

WCU’s Cole Gonzales looked the part of a top quarterback in the FCS. He went 22/35 passing for 211 yards and two touchdowns and had 75 rushing yards on six carries.

Campbell has a talented roster, but its defense will have a hard time slowing down the Catamounts at home.

Prediction: Western Carolina 34-21

Elon at NC Central

I have Elon ranked No. 16 while NC Central is just outside of my Top 25. Last year, NC Central beat Elon 34-23.

Elon has a good nucleus back from its 6-5 squad. Its safety tandem is elite with Caleb Curtain and Khalil Baker, who is a transfer from NC Central.

NC Central lost its standout quarterback Davius Richard as he pursued the NFL. But the Eagles like who they have behind center in Walker Harris. He’ll have to be more efficient than 9/18 for 119 yards and a touchdown in a 31-24 win over Alabama State to find success against a good Elon defense.

Prediction: Elon 28-24

No. 10 Southern Illinois at Austin Peay

Austin Peay has consistently been in the playoff picture in recent years. But there are some unknowns about its 2024 roster. The Govs lost a lot of players to graduation or the transfer portal. Nearly 30 D1 transfers were brought in to replenish the roster. Their 62-0 season-opening loss at Louisville doesn’t give us many answers.

SIU is also coming off of an FBS loss, 41-13 at BYU. The Salukis have some rebuilding to do as well with a new starting QB and production to replace on defense. DJ Williams, a transfer from Murray State, finished 10/20 passing for 98 yards and an interception while rushing for 121 yards and two touchdowns. Its rush defense held up well, led by LB Colin Bohanek (12 tackles), limiting BYU to 3.8 yards per carry (47 attempts for 149 yards).

Expect Austin Peay to try and attack SIU through the air. But the Salukis should be able to control the trenches to earn a road win.

Prediction: SIU 31-21

No. 12 UIW at No. 1 South Dakota State

SDSU didn’t compete as well as some expected last week in its 44-20 loss at FBS No. 17 Oklahoma State. UIW looked OK in a 28-7 home win over a struggling Northern Colorado program.

Week 2 will tell us a lot more about both teams.

Is SDSU still the juggernaut that overmatches 95% of the FCS?

Is the No. 12 ranking for UIW deserved after it didn’t impress well enough to get into the 2023 playoff bracket with an 8-2 record (seven D1 wins)?

UIW won’t be able to beat SDSU at its own game. The Cardinals will have to try and go around the Jackrabbits and not through them, spreading them out and letting the talented arm of Zach Calzada do some damage. SDSU did allow 245 passing yards last week. But that was a Big 12 offense. Keep in mind that the Jackrabbits return a mostly same-look secondary as last year’s team that ranked No. 8 in FCS passing defense (167.6 YPG).

UIW also played solid defense last year relative to its strength of schedule that ranked in the 80s.

I expect UIW to hit on some big plays offensively while its defense gives SDSU’s offense a stiff test. At least in the first half. Eventually, in the final two quarters, SDSU’s physicality will wear on UIW and the Jacks will pull away for a win.

Prediction: SDSU 38-21

No. 4 Montana at No. 23 North Dakota

UND has won 25 of its last 28 games inside the Alerus Center. The Fighting Hawks are 10-3 at home against ranked opponents since 2019. Montana hasn’t lost an FCS non-conference game since 2018.

It’s a great early test for a Montana squad eyeing a return to the national championship game. The Grizzlies were slow out of the gate in 2023 before peaking at the right time. Montana beat Missouri State 29-24 last week, a closer game than some expected and perhaps a sign that a slow start could occur again. Notably, the Grizzlies were without three All-American-level players: wide receiver/returner Junior Bergen, linebacker Riley Wilson, and tight end Cole Grossman. Their statuses for Saturday are unknown.

Similar to 2023, the Griz have a two-QB system to begin the year. Redshirt freshman Keali’i Ah Yat got the start last week before Fresno State transfer Logan Fife came in during the second half.

Montana can’t afford a choppy non-conference like last fall. UND, despite losing 21-3 at Iowa State, showed plenty of positives. The Hawks will be in the playoff hunt again, and they are a very tough team to beat at home. Montana also hosts ranked WCU in a couple of weeks. Dropping a non-conference game puts the pressure on the Griz to go 8-0 in Big Sky play to earn a Top 2 playoff seed and coveted home-field advantage.

Last week, Missouri State’s run-pass balance found success on Montana’s defense. I’m not sure if UND has that offensive balance yet. Its running game looked solid at Iowa State. The o-line, with four new starters, got a decent push. Gaven Ziebarth and Isaiah Smith are two great backs. But Montana’s rush defense should force enough third downs to give the Griz a chance to get off the field.

UND QB Simon Romfo will be in his second career start, and he’ll need to show some progression in the throwing game. An inexperienced QB and an o-line still gelling in pass protection going up against a pressure-heavy Montana defense results in the Grizzlies getting off the field on third downs while their offense hits on enough explosive plays for a hard-fought win.

Prediction: Montana 28-24

Tennessee State at No. 2 North Dakota State

The Bison should win this game. How they win will be most intriguing.

NDSU’s secondary got picked apart last week at Colorado, allowing nearly 450 passing yards. A part of that was Colorado just being that good. But there were also some holes, defensive breakdowns, bad tackling, bad angles, and missed assignments.

Tennessee State looks to contend for a playoff spot out of the Big South-OVC. The Tigers will test that NDSU secondary after veteran QB Draylen Ellis threw for 350+ yards in a 41-21 Week 1 win over Mississippi Valley State. Holding up in the trenches will be the challenge, though. NDSU’s d-line should be among the best in the FCS. And expect the Bison rushing attack to get rolling after an up-and-down game at Colorado.

Prediction: NDSU 41-21

The post Week 2 FCS Predictions appeared first on HERO Sports.

A new Daily Dose will be published multiple times a week.

Idaho QB Jack Layne Out Several Weeks With Broken Collarbone

After nearly pulling off a historical upset at Oregon, Idaho got some tough news this week. Starting quarterback Jack Layne will miss several weeks with a broken collarbone. The redshirt sophomore is expected to return at some point this season.

The No. 7-ranked Vandals still had a lot of preseason hype despite losing some star offensive names. Some reasons for the high expectations were head coach Jason Eck continuing to build the program, the defense having the potential to be among the best in the FCS, and Layne taking over at quarterback. He showed great promise in limited reps in past seasons.

Idaho proved Saturday its defense will be elite. Nearly a 50-point underdog to FBS No. 3 Oregon, the Vandals lost 24-14. Idaho made it 14-7 on Layne’s 36-yard touchdown pass to Jake Cox after a little trickeration. The Vandals later came within 17-14 in the fourth quarter on a Layne 4-yard TD run. Layne threw for 168 yards in the game.

The Vandals will now go forward with redshirt freshman Jack Wagner filling in at quarterback. Wagner was a three-star high school recruit out of Oregon.

They have a challenging schedule ahead. Idaho goes to FBS Wyoming this week before playing No. 16 UAlbany and Abilene Christian, who just took Texas Tech to overtime in a 52-51 loss. Then it’s Big Sky play, with two of the first three games coming at ranked UC Davis and at ranked Montana State.

SEMO QB Paxton DeLaurent Returns From Shoulder Injury

As a positive injury update, SEMO quarterback Paxton DeLaurent was back in action last weekend after he left the Week 0 game with a shoulder injury.

DeLaurent also missed time last year due to injury, playing in only six games.

He was 14/17 passing for 96 yards and a touchdown before leaving the game in SEMO’s Week 0 win over North Alabama. DeLaurent was a game-time decision last weekend and was able to play. He finished 27/45 for 295 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in SEMO’s near FBS win at New Mexico State. The Redhawks led 16-10 in the fourth quarter before NMSU came back to win 23-16.

DeLaurent is a standout QB looking for a full season of health similar to 2022 when he threw for 2,684 yards, 19 touchdowns, and six interceptions.

Past Daily Doses

FCS Teams Bringing In The Most 2024 Division 1 Transfers … READ MORE

2024 Postseason Games Won’t Count Toward 4-Game Redshirt Rule … READ MORE

NDSU’s Wisniewski To Miss ‘Significant Amount Of Time’ Due To Injury + Montana State Gets 1st FCS Over FBS Win Of 2024 … READ MORE

The post FCS Daily Dose: Idaho QB Jack Layne Out Several Weeks With Broken Collarbone appeared first on HERO Sports.

The conference relies heavily on the transfer portal, as the nearly 150 incoming transfers show clearly. How those players fit into their new homes will be the key to all of the programs, particularly with Tennessee State, Gardner-Webb, UT Martin, and Tennessee Tech. Eastern Illinois may not have nearly as many, but the seven it picked up from the FBS ranks are expected to be key contributors.

So the big question is – which teams will gel most quickly, as there are quite a bit of unknowns? We take a look.

Teams Bringing In The Most D1 Transfers

FBS-to-FCS Transfers & FCS-to-FCS Transfers

Tennessee State — 26 (16 FBS, 10 FCS)

Gardner-Webb — 25 (17 FBS, 8 FCS)

UT Martin — 24 (17 FBS, 7 FCS)

Tennessee Tech — 23 (17 FBS, 6 FCS)

Western Illinois — 15 (12 FBS, 3 FCS) 

Lindenwood — 11 (4 FBS, 7 FCS)

SEMO — 10 (4 FBS, 6 FCS)

Eastern Illinois — 8 (7 FBS, 1 FCS)

Charleston Southern — 6 (3 FBS, 3 FCS)

TOP OFFENSIVE PLAYER: Kinkead Dent, UT Martin QB — First of all, we see you Pierce Holley (Eastern Illinois). Like Dent, Holley also returns as a graduate student and had an impressive 2023 season. Dent, a previous Ole Miss quarterback, exploded during his first true chance to play college football. He accounted for 175 yards of total offense in his game against Georgia last year, throwing the lone TD (no INTs) for the Skyhawks. Dent threw for 2,295 yards and 25 TDs with only 8 INTs, while rushing for 351 more with 3 TDs.

TOP DEFENSIVE PLAYER: Bryce Norman, SEMO LB — Norman, an in-state product, led his team in tackles last fall in 10 games. He also posted 119 tackles as a sophomore in 2022 and 66 as a freshman in 2021 – so he’s no stranger to being productive and also has 22.5 career tackles for loss to prove it. He’s also a legacy, as his father Brandon was a two-time All-OVC selection at SEMO. Norman finished the 2023 season with 87 tackles, 9.5 TFLs, 5 sacks, and 1 INT.

TOP NFL PROSPECT: Eriq George, Tennessee State DL — George is the young guy, and we also could have gone with a guy like Lindenwood’s Kobe McClendon – who plays D-end in college but is built like a D-tackle prospect and tells HERO Sports he’ll play anywhere someone asks him. No matter how you go with it, these are a couple of 2024 standouts in the making in the Big South-OVC. George seems primed to explode onto the scene – 2023 was just a hint. George had 25 tackles and 6 TFLs last year and he was only a freshman.

HERO Sports’ Predicted Order of Finish

1. Eastern Illinois
2. UT Martin
3. SEMO
4. Tennessee State
5. Gardner-Webb
6. Charleston Southern
7. Tennessee Tech
8. Lindenwood
9. Western Illinois

Eastern Illinois clearly has the talent to win handily within the FCS level this fall. The recent trend of the transfer portal has improved the Panthers immensely, as they have found a way to blend that talent with their own homegrown talent recruited out of the high school ranks. The summer transfer haul was impressive, and last year’s 8-3 finish was just a breath away from the playoffs, giving the program its best season since the Jimmy Garoppolo days of going 12-2 in 2013.

Coach Chris Wilkerson has stabilized this program, and with talent back like RB M.J. Flowers and WR Eli Mirza on offense and DL Joel Barrows and an incredible secondary and linebacking corps on defense, this should be a special year. Look for the defense to be the rallying point for the Panthers.

UT Martin was picked by the coaches to win the league for the fifth straight year in the preseason poll, and understandably so. The Skyhawks have been the most consistent program within the OVC portion of things for many years under head coach Jason Simpson, the school’s winningest mentor in history. His teams generally win more than they lose, and the 8-win mark has been hit more often in recent years – including last year when the program really performed well.

SEMO football has been stable in recent years too, with coach Tom Matukewicz building something special in Cape Girardeau, Mo. The Redhawks already picked up a Week Zero win over North Alabama and will be a contender for the conference crown in 2024.

Tennessee State has several studs on the roster and coach Eddie George – the former NFL star – has this program looking up for the Tigers. They’ll be the dark horse candidate to get into that upper-three realm of the conference.

After the quartet above, there is an interesting batch of schools. Gardner-Webb was gutted like nobody else in the FCS when coach Tre Lamb took a couple of dozen players with him to his new position with ETSU. Lamb had built GWU into something special in recent years. Charleston Southern, Tennessee Tech, Lindenwood, and relatively new Western Illinois are all dealing with varying degrees of rebuilding – and are just looking for those key positives in 2024.

The post 2024 Big South-OVC Football Preview appeared first on HERO Sports.

Two ranked teams are in action along with the defending HBCU national champions. Let’s predict some scores.

Predictions Record:
2023 Record: 96-42
2019-2022 Record: 337-158

Week 0

McNeese at No. 21 Tarleton State

I like Tarleton as a playoff team this fall in its first year eligible for the postseason.

The Texans finished 8-3 last year, owning a Top 10 FCS scoring offense (33.3 points per game). They return their starting QB Victor Gabalis, two running backs (Kayvon Britten and Derrel Kelley III) that have rushed for over 1,000 yards in a season, top three wide receivers (led by two-time All-UAC selection Darius Cooper), and five starting offensive linemen.

The defense will need to improve to make serious noise nationally after allowing 24.5 points per game, ranking 43rd in the FCS. Five of the top eight tacklers are back.

McNeese is an interesting test to start the year, though.

The Cowboys have a solid tradition, but they have endured some down years lately. They didn’t win a game last year unless you count the forfeit win over Northwestern State. Despite having Micah Davey, who returns as one of the best FCS linebackers, McNeese was awful defensively, allowing 38.1 points per game to rank No. 118 in the FCS.

McNeese brought in about 16 FBS transfers this offseason and five FCS transfers. This includes QB Clifton McDowell, who helped lead Montana to last season’s national championship game.

In front of a strong Tarleton home crowd, the Texans pull away offensively.

Prediction: Tarleton 41-28

North Alabama vs. SEMO

A peek inside my predictions strategy here — I typically just go with my gut feeling and then provide reasoning/analysis/stats to back up my prediction.

On the surface, it seems SEMO is the safe pick here. The Redhawks are a known FCS commodity, reaching the playoffs in 2018, 2019, and 2022. Last year’s team finished 4-7 after being preseason ranked, losing four games by one possession. Well-known standouts like QB Paxton DeLaurent, OL Zack Gieg, CB Joedrick Lewis, and LB Bryce Norman are back.

But something tells me North Alabama is going to get this one. The Lions went 3-8 last year. They beat ranked Chattanooga and had competitive games against quality teams like Mercer, EKU, Austin Peay, and Central Arkansas.

They return 18 starters with seven on offense, eight on defense, and three on special teams. WR Takairee Kenebrew and DB Edwin White Schultz are excellent players. North Alabama also landed about 13 FBS transfers, including QB Ari Patu from Stanford and DC Tabscott from New Mexico.

UNA gets the FCS Kickoff win in Montgomery, AL.

Prediction: North Alabama 24-21

Norfolk State vs. Florida A&M

The MEAC/SWAC Challenge, played in Atlanta, features the defending Celebration Bowl champs FAMU.

The Rattlers look to show they are still the HBCU team to beat with a convincing win over Norfolk State, who went 3-8 last year. FAMU has some question marks, losing its head coach and nine players to the FBS. However, the talent is still aplenty as the program brought in 30+ FBS transfers.

There is also a good nucleus of returning standouts, like OL Ashton Grable, DB Kendall Bohler, DB Deco Wilson, RB Kelvin Dean, WR Jamari Gassett, and DL Allen Smith.

Both squads will have new starting quarterbacks to open the 2024 campaign. FAMU announced FAU transfer Daniel Richardson is QB1, while JuCo transfer Jalen Daniels will start for Norfolk State. Preseason First Team All-MEAC selection Otto Kuhns will be sidelined for the first four games due to an NCAA ruling.

FAMU prides itself on defense. Finding success won’t be easy for Norfolk and its new starting QB.

Prediction: FAMU 28-14

BONUS PICK
No. 4 Montana State at FBS New Mexico

I only pick FCS vs. FCS games for these weekly prediction articles. But I’ll make an exception this week since there is a limited number of games.

Montana State opened as a 4.5-point favorite in early July. It is now MSU -11.5 on BetMGM.

This game reminds me of a Big Sky-Mountain West matchup last year. Idaho was favored by three points over Nevada. Idaho was clearly the better team, but books seemed hesitant to favor an FCS team over an FBS program by too much. The Vandals went on to win 33-6.

I don’t know if MSU will beat New Mexico 33-6. But I feel comfortable picking the Bobcats to win. And the spread is intriguing as well. 11.5 points is a lot for an FCS-FBS game. It’s the biggest FCS over FBS favorite since Old Dominion was favored by 14 at Idaho in 2013. ODU was transitioning to the FBS that year but was still considered an FCS team.

New Mexico has many unknowns. The Lobos lost most of their best players from last year’s 4-8 team. On the other sideline, Montana State is a serious FCS title threat as it returns most of last year’s 2-deep.

New Mexico was awful against the run in 2023, allowing 172.2 rushing yards per game to rank No. 103 in the FBS. Running the ball is MSU’s strength, even if the Cats will be without All-American center Justus Perkins and standout running back Julius Davis at the start of this season. They still have four players on the o-line with significant starting experience, and there is quality depth in the backfield. Scottre Humphrey can take over the lead role just fine. He averaged 8.0 yards per carry and rushed for 441 yards and eight scores last year as a freshman.

MSU’s defense may give up some explosive plays Saturday. But its offense will play ball-control with the ground game while Tommy Mellott shows off an efficient passing attack.

Prediction: Montana State 35-17

The post Week 0 FCS Predictions appeared first on HERO Sports.

More seeds result in less regionalization, more balanced early-round matchups, and more transparency on who hosts in the first round.

For a glimpse at the new format, we used the Stats Perform FCS Preseason Top 25 Media Poll and preseason conference polls to form a preseason bracket.

Keeping scrolling for the bracket

Seeds
Via preseason Top 25 media poll
1. South Dakota State
2. North Dakota State
3. Montana
4. Montana State
5. South Dakota
6. Villanova
7. Idaho
8. Sacramento State
9. Chattanooga
10. Southern Illinois
11. Central Arkansas
12. Furman
13. Richmond
14. UIW
15. William & Mary
16. UAlbany

Auto-Bids
Via preseason conference polls
Big Sky – Montana
Big South-OVC – UT Martin
CAA – Villanova
MVFC – South Dakota State
NEC – Duquesne
Patriot – Lafayette
Pioneer – Drake
SoCon – Chattanooga
Southland – Nicholls
UAC – Central Arkansas

At-Large Bids
Via preseason Top 25 media poll
North Dakota State (seed)
Montana State (seed)
South Dakota (seed)
Idaho (seed)
Sacramento State (seed)
Southern Illinois (seed)
Furman (seed)
Richmond (seed)
UIW (seed)
William & Mary (seed)
UAlbany (seed)
Last 3 In
UC Davis
Illinois State
Western Carolina

Bubble
Via preseason Top 25 media poll
Tarleton State
Weber State
North Dakota
Youngstown State

The Bracket

Instead of first-round host sites being determined by a combination of bid amount, revenue potential, facilities, athlete experience, and team performance, seeds 9-16 will host the remaining unseeded teams based on proximity. The No. 1 seed plays the winner of the No. 16 vs. unseeded matchup, the No. 2 seed plays the winner of the No. 15 vs. unseeded matchup, and so on.

The post A Look At The New FCS Playoff Format Using Preseason Polls appeared first on HERO Sports.