After a 10-0 mark last week and finally nailing an upset pick, we’ll see if that continues into this weekend. Let’s predict some scores.

Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 47-15
2023 Record: 96-42

Week 8 Top 5 Games

Week 8 Viewing Guide

No. 1 South Dakota State at No. 2 North Dakota State

I tipped my hand earlier this week in my FCS Bracketology story when I projected NDSU to be the No. 2 playoff seed and SDSU No. 3. I’ve had a gut feeling about this game since August, thinking NDSU is going to get the Dakota Marker back after a long drought. The Bison bring back so many seniors, the front seven is playing well, quarterback play is elite, receivers and running backs have stepped up, and it’s in the Fargodome. An SDSU 5-game winning streak was unthinkable a decade ago. The streak has to end at some point. And if not this year? Then when?

But that doesn’t mean my prediction has to be locked in.

I started second-guessing earlier this week when the NDSU injury report came out.

Cam Miller, playing at a Walter Payton Award level, is nursing an ankle injury. He didn’t look like himself last weekend at Southern Illinois. And if he can’t make plays with his legs, whether it’s running downfield on designs or broken plays, or he can’t extend plays and maneuver inside and outside the pocket, that could be a legit difference-maker on Saturday. Plus, All-American DE Dylan Hendricks will miss this game and potentially the rest of the season with a knee injury. And starting middle linebacker Nick Kubitz is questionable as he recovers from a head injury. MLB has been a point of contention for NDSU’s defense the last couple of years, but Kubitz has really played well as of late.

Those are three major players either not playing or playing at less than 100 percent.

Meanwhile, if SDSU showed any chinks in the armor during non-conference, the Jackrabbits have appeared to iron most of it out. They look like the two-time defending champs and have rolled in conference play. The defense is perhaps the best in the FCS. The o-line is playing strong for a loaded running back room, while the passing game with Mark Gronowski and his receivers/tight ends is still coming along as they are starting to connect more consistently.

And it’s not like SDSU is fully healthy either. The Jacks have had some starting offensive linemen in and out. The d-line has suffered some injuries. And their two standout safeties have missed time. Cale Reeder is out for the year with a shoulder injury. All-American safety/returner Tucker Large hasn’t played since mid-September. Large was shown wearing a protective boot on the sidelines during the game last week, although he is now listed on this week’s depth chart as an “or” starter with Matthew Durrance.

So much is on the line in this one — rankings, seed positions, program trajectory, recruiting, Gronowski chasing Easton Stick’s FCS record for QB wins, Miller trying to beat SDSU for the first time, etc.

The Fargodome home-field advantage isn’t what it used to be compared to the peak in the early to mid-2010s. And that’s somewhat understandable as the Bison and their fans have accomplished all there is to accomplish in the FCS while watching several like-minded football programs move up to the FBS. While the Dome may not reach 2012 Georgia Southern again, Saturday could come pretty close. The Fargo faithful are thirsting for a win over a team they very much dislike. Keep an eye on how SDSU’s new offensive tackles handle the noise. The crowd could give an extra boost to an NDSU team already playing with an edge and willing itself, despite injuries, to end the five-game losing streak to its rival.

SDSU may get the last laugh this season (rings instead of rocks, amirite?). But in a competitive rivalry series like this, and with it being in Fargo, NDSU looks poised to get back in the win column on Saturday.

RELATED: FCS Bracketology 1.0

Prediction: NDSU 28-27

No. 16 Rhode Island at No. 24 New Hampshire

A pivotal game for both teams as it may be the winner’s only ranked win on their playoff resume.

UNH is 4-2 overall and 4-1 vs. the FCS, losing to Harvard. The Wildcats edged a struggling Elon team 17-10 last week. They go to No. 5 Villanova in what will be a tough place to get a win. There are no currently-ranked opponents after that.

Rhody is an interesting team because this is the only ranked team on its schedule, although Delaware would be a rankable team if eligible to be voted on.

It’s a blessing and a curse for the CAA to have so many programs. The conference will have a lot of teams with records good enough to make the playoffs. But if those teams have 0 or 1 ranked win, how well does that set them up in the playoffs? It’s an interesting scheduling conundrum and “strategy” for the CAA.

The Rams are 5-1 overall and 5-0 vs. the FCS. A 3-point win over Holy Cross, a 7-point win over LIU, and a 2-point win over Hampton make a voter wonder where exactly this team is at.

UNH is 2-0 at home this year. The Wildcats are getting good quarterback play from Seth Morgan, a former starter at VMI. He has thrown for 1,340 yards, 15 touchdowns, and four interceptions. Josiah Silver is continuing his incredible career at defensive end, totaling 33 tackles, 12.5 TFLs, and 7.5 sacks so far this fall. Watch him take advantage of a Rhody pass-blocking grade that is ranked No. 69 on PFF.

I’ll take UNH at home, a program that would be nice to see back in the postseason after being a playoff staple for so long.

Prediction: UNH 31-24

No. 7 Mercer at Samford

We sang the praises of Central Arkansas. But then it fell into a trap game.

We then sang the praises of Abilene Christian. But then it fell into a trap game.

Does that mean teams like Mercer and SEMO are on the clock?

Mercer is off to a dynamite start, sitting at 6-0 with two ranked wins. The defense has dominated, ranking No. 1 in FCS scoring defense (7.7 PPG), No. 1 in rushing defense (38.8 yards per game), No. 1 in rushing yards allowed per attempt (1.48), No. 2 in total defense (219.3 YPG), No. 8 in TFLs (46), and No. 1 in interceptions (13).

Samford is a dangerous team, though. The Bulldogs are 2-3, but they nearly beat a rankable ETSU squad before losing 31-28 in the final minutes. Quincy Crittendon has thrown for 1,138 yards, 10 touchdowns, and two interceptions.

On the other side, Mercer QB D.J. Smith is expected to return from an ankle injury. The JuCo transfer, who is a junior this year, has thrown for 981 yards, eight touchdowns, and five interceptions while rushing for 167 yards and three touchdowns.

Defense travels. And the Bears will lean on that unit to go to Samford and get a road win.

Prediction: Mercer 27-14

McNeese at No. 14 UIW

UIW made a statement last week, beating 2023 Southland champs Nicholls 55-10 to improve to 4-2. Zach Calzada had himself a day, throwing for 270 yards and five touchdowns. The UIW defense held the run-heavy Nicholls offense to just 123 yards and 40 carries.

McNeese comes in after an important bye week. The Cowboys knocked off No. 25 Weber State at the end of September, improving to 4-2 overall and 4-1 vs. the FCS. The following week, though, they lost 43-22 at HCU. Clifton McDowell suffered a finger injury on his throwing hand in that loss. He sat in the second quarter, then returned in the second half, but you could tell the finger was bothering him.

McDowell has played well this fall after transferring in from Montana, leading the team with 370 rushing yards and six touchdowns while throwing for 1,054 yards, six TDs, and three interceptions.

The McNeese defense has also suffered several injuries. We’ll see if the bye week can get the Cowboys healthier. Winning at a hot UIW team will be an uphill battle, though, healthy or not.

RELATED: Resumes For The Top 10 Ranked FCS Teams

Prediction: UIW 41-20

Weber State at Sacramento State

This looks like a de facto playoff elimination game.

Both teams already have four losses and likely need to win out to reach the postseason. A 7-5 record in a 12-game season will be like a 6-5 record in previous years — can sometimes get you into the bracket, but it is rare.

Sac State was preseason No. 8. The Hornets are now 2-4 overall and 2-2 vs. the FCS, losing to consecutive unranked teams — Northern Arizona and EWU. They still need to play ranked Montana State and UC Davis.

Weber State was preseason No. 22. The Wildcats are now 3-4 overall and 3-3 vs. the FCS. They lost to unranked Lamar and McNeese, won at No. 8 Montana, and then gave Northern Colorado its first win since 2022. Weber still needs to play at ranked Idaho.

Both squads are tough to figure out. And both teams will probably end up missing the playoffs anyway. But the loser’s playoff hopes are almost certainly squandered. I’ll side with the home team here. Sac State has too much experience to drop a second straight home game. And Carson Conklin is playing well (1,100 yards, 13 TDs, 4 INT) to get the Hornets back on track.

Prediction: Sac State 28-24

More FCS Predictions

Eastern Kentucky at No. 17 Abilene Christian

EKU suffered its first FCS loss last week at Southern Utah. Abilene Christian looks to rebound from a loss to North Alabama that dropped it out of the Top 10. ACU gets it done behind the arm of Maverick McIvor (2,231 yards, 17 TDs, 3 INT).

Prediction: ACU 35-28

No. 25 Florida A&M at Jackson State

This very well could decide the SWAC East champ. Jackson State is 2-0 in the standings (4-2 overall, 3-1 vs. the FCS) and FAMU is 1-0 in conference play (3-2 overall, 3-0 vs. the FCS). It’s going to be an incredible crowd. But I trust FAMU’s defense a bit more to get a hard-earned road win.

Prediction: FAMU 27-24

Delaware at No. 18 Richmond

Delaware is off to a 6-0 start. The Blue Hens are not eligible to be voted on in the polls as it transitions to the FBS. While it won’t count as a ranked win, it would still be a resume-boosting win for playoff-hopeful Richmond, who has won four straight after a 0-2 start. I’ll lean Delaware here.

Prediction: Delaware 28-21

Northern Iowa at No. 9 North Dakota

This is a crucial game for UND. The Fighting Hawks are coming off a bye week after a humbling 41-17 loss at NDSU. At 4-2 overall and 4-1 vs. the FCS with a ranked win over then-No. 4 Montana, UND has a good shot at hitting eight wins by beating UNI, YSU, Indiana State, and Illinois State. The other two remaining games are hosting Top 5 SDSU and USD. Splitting those would be massive. Losing both would be fine if the Hawks don’t mess around and lose the other games they are favored to win. And that starts this week hosting a UNI team that is at its lowest point in recent memory, sitting at 2-4 overall and 0-2 in the MVFC, losing 41-3 vs. SDSU and 42-17 at USD.

Prediction: North Dakota 28-17

Wofford at No. 19 Chattanooga

Chattanooga is 3-3 overall, 3-1 vs. the FCS, has won three straight, and has one-score losses to FBS Georgia State and Top 10 Mercer. The Mocs are a dangerous team with one ranked win over ETSU on their resume. Wofford is still hanging around in the playoff picture at 3-3 and a ranked win over Richmond. Chattanooga is rolling, though, and I don’t think the Terriers will have the offensive firepower to hang for four quarters.

Prediction: Chattanooga 28-20

The post Week 8 FCS Predictions appeared first on HERO Sports.

How the playoff field changes and takes shape every week is fascinating. So after every weekend of games moving forward, I will predict what the bracket will look like.

Below are predictions for the seeds, auto-bids, at-large bids, the bracket, and which teams are on the bubble.

Notes

These predictions take current playoff resumes and all future scheduled games into consideration. 

This is through the eyes of the playoff committee and what I think they will do.

The seeds associated with teams won’t be the same as my Top 25 rankings. My poll ballot is ranking teams based on performances/resumes so far. This bracketology is projecting ahead.

The Field

2021-2023 Final Bracketology Accuracy: 22/24 seeds correct, 69/72 teams in the field correct

Seeds
1. Montana State
2. North Dakota State
3. South Dakota State
4. Mercer
5. Villanova
6. South Dakota
7. SEMO
8. UC Davis
9. UIW
10. Idaho
11. Chattanooga
12. Central Arkansas
13. Montana
14. William & Mary
15. Tarleton State
16. Abilene Christian

Auto-Bids
Big Sky – Montana State
Big South-OVC – SEMO
CAA – Villanova
MVFC – North Dakota State
NEC – Duquesne
Patriot – Holy Cross
Pioneer – Drake
SoCon – Mercer
Southland – UIW
UAC – Central Arkansas

At-Large Bids 
Ordered from most likely to least likely to get in. Seeded teams who are not their conference’s auto-bid will be at the top.

South Dakota State (seed)
South Dakota (seed)
UC Davis (seed)
Idaho (seed)
Chattanooga (seed)
Montana (seed)
William & Mary (seed)
Tarleton State (seed)
Abilene Christian (seed)
Rhode Island
Last 4 In
North Dakota
ETSU
Western Carolina
Stephen F. Austin

Bubble Teams Left Out
Ordered from the best chance to make the bracket out of this group to the worst chance.

25. UT Martin
26. Richmond
27. McNeese
28. Northern Arizona
29. Lamar

The Bracket

The FCS playoff bracket increased its number of seeded teams from 8 to 16 this year. Seeds 1-8 get a first-round bye, and seeds 9-16 will host first-round games. First-round matchups will still be paired up based on geography. But the second round will no longer be based on regionalization. The No. 16 seed will feed into the No. 1 seed, the No. 15 seed into the No. 2 seed, and so on.

The first round is still regionalized to save on travel costs. The committee tries to utilize as many bus trips (400 miles or less) as possible while avoiding regular-season rematches.

The committee avoids conference matchups in the first round if the two teams played each other in the regular season. However, if two conference teams did not play each other during the regular season, they may be paired up in the first round. Regular-season non-conference rematches should be avoided in the first round.

If a conference has four or more teams in the bracket, the committee can add an extra flight to avoid having all teams on one side of the bracket as long as it doesn’t impact or change the seeding.

The order of seeds is not determined by regionalization.

The Explanation

This section will typically have between 1,000-2,000 words breaking down each team, their current resume, and their future games and why it has a pathway to a seed, an at-large bid, etc.

Keep in mind that this bracketology factors in future games as well. So in this instance, I’m projecting Montana State will go 12-0 to earn the No. 1 seed. And I’m projecting NDSU to win the MVFC. Just to use those two as examples.

We obviously have a lot of games left, so this is going to be fluid and move around each week. Some will say doing a bracketology in October is pointless. Those people also probably aren’t fun to hang out with in social settings. It’s an entertaining exercise to see how each week of results shapes the playoff picture. And it also gives fan bases an idea of “This is where we’re at now, this is where other teams are at to keep an eye on, this is our remaining schedule, and if we win out or lose just one more game we can get a seed in this range.”

If a team is on the bubble, this will give those fans an idea of what teams to keep an eye on and where their resume is at. Same with Top 2 seeds, Top 4 seeds, Top 8, etc.

As we get closer to Selection Sunday, I’ll dive more into details on resumes, ranked wins, strength of schedule, upcoming games, etc. to explain why I think Team A will be the No. 1 seed, Team B will be the No. 8 seed, Team C is left on the bubble, and so on.

Here’s a look at what future bracketology story breakdowns will look like.

The post 2024 FCS Bracketology 1.0 appeared first on HERO Sports.

Let’s predict some scores.

Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 32-11
2023 Record: 96-42

Week 6 Top 5 Games

Week 6 Viewing Guide

No. 7 North Dakota at No. 2 North Dakota State

Perhaps the biggest regular-season win in the last few years that reverberated the most across the FCS was when UND walloped NDSU 49-24 last fall. The UND win/NDSU loss itself maybe wasn’t a surprise, but how the Fighting Hawks won caused many around the FCS to shovel dirt on the Bison dynasty.

But maybe the shine of that win dimmed for UND after the Hawks went flat from there, exiting the playoffs in the first round at home while the Bison rebounded just fine and made a run to the semifinals.

UND now looks to show that it wasn’t a one-time performance. That it’s here as an FCS contender and its No. 7 ranking is deserved. NDSU eyes revenge for that embarrassing loss, to silence any doubters after an up-and-down defensive non-conference slate, and to show this team is locked and loaded for another national title.

It’s the most intriguing FCS vs. FCS game so far this season.

UND’s rushing attack is legit behind a new-look offensive line and running backs Isaiah Smith, Gaven Ziebarth, and Sawyer Seidl. And Simon Romfo has shown he can hit a nice deep ball to Bo Belquist (24 catches for 478 yards and 5 TDs) to loosen up the defense. We’ll see if NDSU can string together back-to-back strong defensive performances after some struggles in the non-conference.

Cam Miller (completing 78.3% of his passes for 1,143 yards, nine touchdowns, and zero interceptions, plus 190 rushing yards and five TDs) and the NDSU offense are a smooth operation, executing at a high level. In a game with limited possessions, I’m not sure UND will be able to garner enough stops. It’s hard to see the Hawks going into the Fargodome and getting a W as the sold-out crowd may be a bit more juiced up for this one.

Prediction: NDSU 35-24

No. 18 Illinois State at No. 19 Southern Illinois

Both teams are beat up, and both teams really need a win.

SIU is on a two-game losing streak, losing by 17 points to SEMO and by 29 at South Dakota. The Salukis are now 2-3 overall and 2-2 vs. the FCS. ISU is 3-2 overall and 3-1 vs. the FCS, losing 42-10 last week vs. NDSU.

Last week at this time, I was impressed with Illinois State’s 31-7 win over Eastern Illinois, a team that finished 8-3 last year and returned most of its starters. That win hasn’t aged well after EIU lost to Lindenwood.

Hunter Simmons has stepped in as SIU’s starting QB due to injury. He’s played well, throwing for 341 yards vs. SEMO and 306 yards vs. USD. But SIU’s rushing attack just can’t get going, running for 60 yards on 25 attempts against USD and 62 yards on 30 attempts against SEMO.

Illinois State allows 244 passing yards per game, ranking No. 92 in the FCS. SIU gets back in the win column at home behind the arm of Simmons.

Prediction: SIU 28-21

No. 5 Central Arkansas at No. 16 Abilene Christian

UCA at ACU in a UAC matchup.

Central Arkansas continues to look like this year’s southern team that can challenge the Midwest powers. The Bears are 4-1 overall and should be 5-0 with an FBS win. They have a Top 1 or 2 FCS offensive player in running back ShunDerrick Powell — 91 rushes for 810 yards and 10 touchdowns while adding 12 catches for 195 yards and two touchdowns. And they have the best defensive player in the FCS in NFL Draft prospect David Walker — 22 tackles, 10.5 TFLs, 6.5 sacks, four quarterback hurries, and three pass breakups.

Abilene Christian has had a nice rise into the rankings. The Wildcats are still looking for a signature win, though. They have beaten West Georgia, Northern Colorado, and Utah Tech. ACU is on the Top 25 radar due to its overtime loss to FBS Texas Tech and its near comeback win over Top 5 Idaho. Maverick McIvor is playing well, throwing for 1,100 yards, eight touchdowns, and two interceptions in four games.

We could see a good amount of points here. But I trust Central Arkansas to get more stops defensively for a road win.

Prediction: Central Arkansas 42-31

No. 25 Northern Arizona at No. 10 Idaho

Make that back-to-back FBS games and now four-straight ranked FCS opponents for Idaho. NAU slides into the Top 25 after knocking off No. 10 Sacramento State 34-16.

Idaho looks to rebound from its first FCS loss of the season. Quarterback Jack Wagner is expected to play after leaving the UC Davis game, reaggravating his shoulder injury.

NAU has been Jekyll and Hyde in recent years. The Lumberjacks have pulled some big upsets. They also haven’t been consistently good. A week before beating No. 10 Sac State, they lost 38-14 to No. 15 UIW.

NAU’s defense has been playing tough, making this a challenge for an Idaho offense that has stalled out at times and has been hot during other points in games. Just its second home game in six weeks and it being Idaho’s Homecoming, the Vandals get back on track with its third ranked win.

Prediction: Idaho 28-17

Chattanooga at No. 23 ETSU

ETSU has turned into America’s team. Not only did the Bucs have casual FCS fans rooting for them in their near win over No. 2 NDSU, but their story was spread across the country of last week’s harrowing travel to The Citadel.

They look to add another quality win this week against Chattanooga, who is just outside of the Top 25. The Mocs may be 1-3, but two of those losses are against FBS opponents (including a three-point loss to Georgia State). And the third loss is a one-score game to Mercer, who is now ranked No. 11.

ETSU has it rolling right now. And it’s hard to see it stopping at home. The defense, led by Ray Coney and Chris Hope, looks to slow down what can be an explosive Chattanooga offense. Meanwhile, the offensive ground game led by Bryson Irby (480 yards, 5 TDs) can help control the time of possession.

Prediction: ETSU 28-24

More FCS Predictions

Weber State at No. 8 Montana

Montana’s offense is legit, scoring 46 and 52 points in the last two games. But its defense is leaky, allowing 35 and 49 points in those contests. Weber’s offense doesn’t have quite the explosiveness of Western Carolina or Eastern Washington, and it has dropped two games to Southland opponents who were unranked at the time. Montana improves to 5-1 as things start to click defensively. The struggles may be more Xs and Os than Jimmys and Joes.

Prediction: Montana 35-21

No. 6 Villanova at Stony Brook

How about Stony Brook? The Seawolves are 4-1 overall and 4-0 vs. the FCS. They are still searching for a signature win, though. Stonehill, Fordham, Campbell, and Morgan State aren’t needle-movers. Villanova is also 4-1 overall and 4-0 vs. the FCS. It is also lacking a signature performance that stamps itself as a Top 6 FCS team. I don’t see Stony Brook generating enough offense to get a win here. Nova has allowed 17, 3, 13, and 10 points against FCS opponents. If the offense can finish drives, the Wildcats are a scary, complete team.

Prediction: Villanova 28-17

No. 1 South Dakota State at Northern Iowa

Both teams are coming off of bye weeks. We’ll see what personnel changes and adjustments they make. The Panthers are 2-2 overall with two FBS losses. The two wins are over non-scholarship Pioneer teams, including an iffy 17-10 win at St. Thomas, who is 1-3 with a D2 loss. SDSU’s defense and run game looked strong in the non-conference. The passing attack was choppy, though. Playing at UNI is always a challenge, but I expect a clean SDSU performance and win. The Jackrabbits look to be pretty healthy, getting multiple key players back from injury after the bye.

Prediction: SDSU 35-17

No. 13 SEMO at Eastern Illinois

EIU’s loss to Lindenwood last week is a concern, especially for a veteran team. SEMO, meanwhile, has it rolling with a 4-1 record and a 4-0 mark vs. the FCS. Paxton DeLaurent continues to play at a high level, throwing for 1,305 yards, 13 touchdowns, and three interceptions. SEMO remains undefeated against FCS competition.

Prediction: SEMO 38-21

The post Week 6 FCS Predictions appeared first on HERO Sports.

I’ll publish my weekly Top 25 ballot every Sunday or Monday, and I’ll also provide a midseason update on who I have my eye on for major awards like the Walter Payton Award (FCS Offensive Player of the Year) and the Buck Buchanan Award (FCS Defensive Player of the Year).

Here are my five favorites for the Walter Payton Award entering October.

5. Monmouth QB Derek Robertson

Robertson transferred in-conference from Maine to Monmouth this offseason. After throwing for 2,933 yards and 25 touchdowns last year as an All-CAA Honorable Mention selection, the senior is off to a blistering start with his new team this fall. Robertson leads the FCS with 1,676 passing yards and 14 passing touchdowns. He is completing 66% of his passes (119/179) and has a 14:4 TD:INT ratio. Robertson’s 166.5 passing efficiency ranks No. 8 in the FCS.

4. Tarleton State RB Kayvon Britten

Just five games into the year, Britten is closing in on his third consecutive 1,000-yard rushing season. The back-to-back All-Conference First Team selection (2022 at Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 2023 at Tarleton), has rushed 113 times for 833 yards and six touchdowns. Britten leads the FCS in rushing yards while his 7.37 yards per carry ranks No. 11.

RELATED: Week 5 Top 25 FCS Scoreboard

3. Montana RB Eli Gillman

The 2023 Jerry Rice Award winner looks even better in 2024. In five games, he has rushed 56 times for 565 yards and seven touchdowns. The 565 yards rank No. 6 in the FCS. Of the Top 10 rushers, every back has at least 77 attempts besides Gillman. His 10.1 yards per carry ranks No. 1 nationally.

2. Central Arkansas RB ShunDerrick Powell

Powell is already nearing his third straight 1,000-yard rushing season. Through five games, he has rushed 91 times for 810 yards and 10 touchdowns while adding 12 catches for 195 yards and two touchdowns. Powell has rushed for at least 120 yards in every game and has scored two rushing TDs in every contest. His 810 yards and 8.9 yards per carry rank No. 2 in the FCS.

FCS Top 25: Sam Herder’s Ballot

1. North Dakota State QB Cam Miller

After an All-American 2023 campaign, Miller is playing the best ball of his career. In five games, he is completing 78.3% of his passes (90/115) for 1,143 yards, nine touchdowns, and zero interceptions. The dual-threat Miller also has 190 rushing yards and five TDs. His 187.6 passing efficiency ranks No. 1 in the FCS.

The post Herder: 2024 FCS Walter Payton Award Favorites Entering October appeared first on HERO Sports.

Let’s predict some scores.

Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 24-10
2023 Record: 96-42

Week 5 Top 5 Games

Week 5 Viewing Guide

No. 12 Mercer at No. 23 Wofford

Mercer is off to a hot start, sitting at 4-0 with four FCS wins over Presbyterian, Bethune-Cookman, then-No. 14 Chattanooga, and The Citadel. Its defense had been dominant, allowing nine points per game, 32.5 rushing yards per game, and 1.2 rushing yards per attempt.

Wofford has had a nice start to get itself into the Top 25 rankings. The Terriers are 2-1, beating Gardner-Webb and then-No. 14 Richmond before losing to then-No. 13 William & Mary 28-21.

The race for a SoCon title and potentially multiple playoff at-large bids will be tight. And these two will certainly be factors in that race. I don’t see Wofford’s offense having enough juice to win this game, averaging 22.7 points per game. The Terriers will have to rely on the young arm of quarterback Amari Odom, who has had a good start this year — 709 passing yards, 4 TDs, 0 INT.

But Mercer’s defense will be too much to find consistent success on, led by Isaac Dowling, Marques Thomas, and Ken Standley.

Prediction: Mercer 28-21

No. 2 North Dakota State at No. 18 Illinois State

Illinois State is without three of its best players — RB Mason King, OL Hunter Zambrano, and OLB Amir Abdullah. Yet the Redbirds are still 3-1 overall and 3-0 vs. the FCS. Last week was their most impressive performance, beating Eastern Illinois 31-7. EIU may not have been ranked, but it returned a bulk of its starters from last year’s 8-3 team that beat Illinois State.

NDSU, also 3-1 overall and 3-0 vs. the FCS, has looked great offensively, led by Walter Payton Award contender Cam Miller at quarterback, the emergence of freshman running back CharMar Brown, quality depth at wide receiver, and an o-line playing well as it breaks in three new starters. The defense has its concerns, though. The safety play hasn’t been strong, and the front seven hasn’t lived up to its preseason hype yet.

ISU’s rushing attack could cause trouble for the Bison. Wenkers Wright has stepped up to average 111.3 rushing yards per game. QB Tommy Rittenhouse also has some running ability. NDSU ranks 58th in FCS run defense (151.5 YPG). Its tackling grade ranks No. 83 on PFF.

It’s a great road test for the Bison, who took a bit last year to get rolling. We’ll see if an early conference loss or two occurs like in 2023. But I don’t think it will happen this week, as NDSU’s depth will take over in the second half on a beat-up ISU squad.

Prediction: NDSU 31-21

No. 17 Southern Illinois at No. 5 South Dakota

While my overall predictions have been solid this year, I just haven’t quite gotten my finger on Southern Illinois. I am 1-2 when picking SIU games, incorrectly picking them to lose to UIW and beat SEMO.

Things don’t get much easier this week as we just don’t know a whole lot about South Dakota. We know the Yotes are talented and experienced based on who they bring back from last year’s quarterfinal squad. We also know success doesn’t always carry over to the next year. USD has yet to play a scholarship FCS team. It has wins over D2 Northern State and non-scholarship Drake, a competitive FBS loss at Wisconsin, and a canceled FCS game at Portland State.

SIU will be without its starting QB DJ Williams due to a hand injury. Hunter Simmons stepped in last week in the SEMO loss and went 28/48 for 341 yards and a touchdown. SIU’s ground game struggled to get going without Williams, though, who still leads the team in rushing yards. Last week, the Salukis gained just 62 yards on 30 rushes.

The Salukis will have to try and beat USD through the air, which will prove to be tough. USD owns the No. 22 PFF coverage grade. And Mike Reid, a Monmouth transfer, is playing like a top cornerback in the FCS. Time of possession could favor USD in this one if the Coyotes can get off the field on third downs, and then establish the run offensively.

Prediction: USD 35-27

No. 19 Lamar at No. 7 Central Arkansas

Lamar has had a great turnaround in Pete Rossomando’s first two seasons as head coach. From 2-9 in 2021 and 1-10 in 2022, the Cardinals went 6-5 in Rossomando’s debut season in 2023. They are out to a 3-1 start this fall, including 3-0 vs. the FCS and a ranked win over Weber State. The lone loss was a 34-27 game at Texas State, one of the top Group of Five schools.

Central Arkansas has looked the part of a title contender. Also 3-1, the Bears have dominated three FCS opponents and should have beaten FBS Arkansas State if not for an errant replay overturn. They have a Buck Buchanan Award frontrunner in DE David Walker (8.5 TFLs, 5.5 sacks, 4 QB hurries). And a Walter Payton Award contender in RB ShunDerrick Powell (623 rush yards, 8 TDs).

Plus, Darius Hale (294 rush yards, 8 TDs) is a top-graded PFF FCS running back, and Will McElvain (854 yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT) is a veteran quarterback.

This is a good opportunity for a ranked win on UCA’s playoff resume. If the Bears play to their potential every week, we could be looking at a Top 4 seed by November.

Prediction: UCA 38-21

No. 4 Idaho at No. 14 UC Davis

What a first five games for Idaho — two FBS opponents and three ranked FCS opponents.

The Vandals look legit on defense, strong on special teams, and solid on offense considering their backup QB Jack Wagner has been thrown into a starting role. Idaho has found playmakers at running back and receiver, while its o-line looks much improved.

This is now Idaho’s fourth road game in five weeks. Can the Vandals keep their momentum going of getting more first-place votes week after week in the national polls? Or is a letdown game coming?

The matchup may be favorable this week at UC Davis.

The Aggies want to establish the run and get All-American RB Lan Larison going. He is averaging 98.3 rushing yards per game so far this fall. But Idaho’s front seven is stout, perhaps the best in the FCS. The Vandals allow just 104 rushing yards per game, an impressive figure especially considering the level of competition. If UC Davis pulls off this upset, it needs Miles Hastings to take his game to another level. The Aggies aren’t great at consistently stretching a defense vertically. Hastings has thrown for 1,082 yards, but he has a 6:5 TD:INT ratio.

I don’t see UC Davis finding enough success on this Idaho defense. And the Vandals may find themselves in a lower-scoring game, but they will hit on enough explosive plays to pull out a way.

Prediction: Idaho 24-17

More FCS Predictions

Southeastern Louisiana at No. 16 Tarleton State

Tarleton State RB Kayvon Britten must be salivating after watching film. Last week, SDSU’s Kirby Vorhees rushed five times for 179 yards and three touchdowns on SLU’s defense. Also last week, Britten had 21 carries for 273 yards and four TDs at North Alabama. He leads the nation with 660 rushing yards this season, and Britten will continue his All-American-level season as Tarleton remains undefeated vs. FCS opponents.

Prediction: Tarleton State 41-21

ETSU at The Citadel

I’m a bit surprised that ETSU is still not ranked in the national polls. I had the Bucs No. 20 on my ballot last week and No. 18 this week. They nearly beat No. 2 NDSU, and then I was just as impressed with their 34-14 road win at Elon, a team I was high on. Jaylen King looked great, going 17/28 for 233 yards while rushing for 93 yards and two scores. ETSU keeps it rolling over The Citadel, a team you can never overlook in SoCon play.

Prediction: ETSU 35-17

No. 8 Montana at Eastern Washington

In my Montana preseason game-by-game predictions article, I had the Grizzlies going 10-2. I picked them to lose this game, but that was more of an “I think Montana will lose an early contest that we don’t expect, but I don’t think it’ll be against Missouri State or Western Carolina at home, and I have too many questions about UND, so let’s go with EWU” kind of prediction.

Turns out it was the UND game that was Montana’s early season loss. I think the Griz go on a nice run here to open Big Sky play, continuing to get better offensively and defensively as they rise in the rankings again. Montana has never won on EWU’s red turf since it was installed in 2010. That changes Saturday against a 2024 EWU team that underwhelmed in the non-conference.

Prediction: Montana 38-27

Portland State at Chattanooga

We don’t get many Big Sky vs. SoCon non-conference matchups. I wrote about why this game was so intriguing during the offseason. To sum it up, Big Sky followers believe the SoCon is overrated and its non-playoff teams could beat the SoCon’s best teams. SoCon followers believe the Big Sky is overrated and overvalued by poll voters and the playoff committee, which leads the high seeds and home games.

Chattanooga is a top SoCon team, and Portland State can be a middle-of-the-pack Big Sky team. So we’ll see.

Both squads are 0-3 with the two toughest FCS strength of schedules so far. I’ll go with the home team here. The Mocs are still in the playoff hunt despite its record (two FBS losses), so this is a must-win.

Prediction: Chattanooga 31-21

The post Week 5 FCS Predictions appeared first on HERO Sports.

Let’s predict some scores.

Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 18-7
2023 Record: 96-42

Week 4 Top 5 Games

Week 4 Viewing Guide

No. 24 Western Carolina at No. 9 Montana

WCU got a much-needed victory last week, winning 24-17 at No. 22 Elon. It was a good bounce-back victory after a disappointing home loss to unranked Campbell. That loss came after WCU looked good against FBS No. 24 NC State, leading 21-17 in the third quarter before losing 38-21. So it’s been an up-and-down start for the Catamounts after high preseason expectations.

The same can be said for Montana’s start to the season. The Grizzlies are 2-1, beating Missouri State in a closer game than some expected, losing at then-No. 20 North Dakota after holding a big halftime lead, and then beating overmatched Morehead State 59-2. Montana has a very high ceiling in the national title picture. But it’s been a bit slow out of the gates. The defense is still gelling, while the offense has shown glimpses of being really good. It’s also struggled with inconsistencies, although a shuffling of the o-line and at the center position could solve some pass protection issues.

Cole Gonzales was considered a top returning quarterback in the FCS this fall. He was sharp against NC State and Elon, but he threw four interceptions in the loss to Campbell. It’s a phenomenal test for Gonzales, going up against a pressure-heavy Montana defense in front of the noisiest FCS crowd.

I think WCU can move the ball and get some points on the board. But WCU’s defense, while fast and athletic, could wear down as Montana looks to control the clock. Montana has a loaded running back room to lean on, led by one of the best backs in the FCS, Eli Gillman. Time of possession and a timely turnover or two leads to a Griz win.

Prediction: Montana 35-27

No. 21 SEMO at No. 7 Southern Illinois

The Salukis made a statement in the first half last week, leading No. 12 UIW 35-14. UIW scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to make it a 35-28 final. SIU was dealt with some bad news a couple of days after the game, though. Starting quarterback DJ Williams will miss time, needing surgery on his right hand. He was just coming off of an electric game, throwing for 301 yards while rushing for 79. Hunter Simmons, last year’s backup, will take over as the starter.

Shoutout to SIU for challenging itself in a nice non-conference slate as it hosts another ranked opponent this week in the “War for the Wheel.”

SEMO comes in with a 2-1 record, including a near win at FBS New Mexico State. After a solid rushing game in Week 0, the Redhawks have really leaned on the arm of Paxton DeLaurent. The veteran standout attempted 45 passes at NMSU (completing 27 for 295 yards and a touchdown) and 63 passes against UT Martin (completing 34 for 376 yards and six TDs).

Teams have found success throwing the ball on SIU’s defense. The Salukis are allowing 335.3 passing yards per game compared to 101 rushing YPG. But SIU has also gotten after the quarterback, racking up 13 sacks in three games. Ben Bogle has emerged as an early candidate for the Buck Buchanan Award with 28 tackles, nine TFLs, and 5.5 sacks.

If SIU can establish a ground game on a SEMO defense that is allowing 206.3 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per attempt, it’ll ease Simmons in his first start. And if SIU can make SEMO one-dimensional offensively, I think its defense can pin its ears back and get DeLaurent on the ground often via sacks, hurries, and hits.

Prediction: SIU 28-24

No. 4 Idaho at No. 19 Abilene Christian

ACU had an impressive first two weeks of the season, taking FBS Texas Tech to overtime before losing 52-51 and then beating West Georgia 38-24. UWG had just beaten Samford. But last week, the Wildcats edged out Northern Colorado 24-22, a team that is a combined 0-14 in 2024 and 2023.

They now welcome an Idaho team that looks like the most complete squad in the FCS. The Vandals battled FBS No. 3 Oregon into the fourth quarter, beat FBS Wyoming, and then throttled No. 17 UAlbany 41-13.

ACU QB Maverick McIvor has been terrific, throwing for 1,032 yards, seven touchdowns, and zero interceptions through three games. They’ll go up against the best defense in the FCS. Idaho is allowing 16.7 points per game and 103.7 rushing yards per game (keep in mind the teams Idaho has played when comparing statistics). They are also getting after the QB with 11 sacks. Keyshawn James-Newby has six of those.

Idaho wants to control the clock, keeping ACU’s explosive offense off the field. The Vandals will look to establish the run and keep backup-QB-turned-starter Jack Wagner comfortable. They have found a nice 1-2 punch at RB with Elisha Cummings and Nate Thomas, two guys that can get going against an ACU team allowing 168 rushing yards per game. I expect another solid showing from Idaho’s o-line opening up running lanes. And Idaho’s defense will be able to contain ACU’s passing attack with some assistance from its d-line getting the Wildcats out of sync.

Prediction: Idaho 31-21

Eastern Illinois at No. 17 Illinois State

Both teams entered this fall with high expectations.

Illinois State returned its standout running back, top receivers, three starting offensive line, and its top seven tacklers after going 6-5 last year with multiple close losses. EIU finished 8-3 last season and returned an experienced OL, its All-Conference QB/RB/WR, and nine of its top 12 tacklers.

But neither have looked the part just yet.

Illinois State lost 40-0 at FBS Iowa, beat North Alabama 24-17, and then was in a back-and-forth battle against a struggling Western Illinois program before pulling away for a 51-34 win. EIU is 1-2 with two FBS losses. And in its FCS win, it only beat Indiana State 27-20.

ISU is battling injuries to key players. Standout running back Mason King and All-American offensive lineman Hunter Zambrano are out for the season. And All-American LB Amir Abdullah is missing time due to injury.

The Redbirds haven’t looked strong on defense, and EIU’s experienced offense led by QB Pierce Holley and RB MJ Flowers can take advantage. I’ll call the upset here. If you can even call it an upset. Keep in mind that EIU beat ISU 14-13 last year, and the Panthers have just as much returning experience on the field.

Prediction: EIU 21-17

ETSU at Elon

ETSU looks to prove last week’s showing against NDSU wasn’t a one-time performance, while Elon looks to bounce back from its loss to Western Carolina.

Elon’s defense, which allows only 110 rushing yards per game, looks to make ETSU beat them through the air. Now, ETSU almost knocked off the Bison despite its passing attack looking below average. Jaylen King finished 6/15 passing for 113 yards. But the Bucs rushed for 270 yards, averaging 7.1 yards per carry.

Elon’s strong front seven should be able to limit the rushing attack, forcing King to make throws on a talented secondary. Offensively for the Phoenix, watch for TJ Thomas Jr. to continue his strong season. He’s already rushed for 294 yards and two touchdowns through three games.

Coming off of an emotional loss, I can see ETSU getting out to a slow start. Can the Bucs match the energy they played with against No. 2 NDSU compared to unranked Elon? Is their tank on empty, physically and emotionally?

The Phoenix will build an early two-score lead and then hang on in the second half for the W. Had they been able to finish promising drives last week, Elon could be 2-1 right now instead of 1-2. Expect a cleaner performance this week.

Prediction: Elon 28-24

More FCS Predictions

Towson at No. 2 NDSU

A more intriguing game than anticipated after NDSU barely beat ETSU last week while Towson should have beaten No. 5 Villanova if not for two missed field goals late in the game. The Bison defense has had issues in two of the first three games, and Towson could pose some problems. But a motivated NDSU squad at home should get a win on Saturday.

Prediction: NDSU 35-17

Furman at No. 12 William & Mary

Another good CAA-SoCon matchup. W&M looks to get back to where it was in 2022, and that’s the quarterfinals. Furman is coming off of a 2023 quarterfinal run with plenty of departures to replace. The Paladins haven’t looked the part with their 1-2 start, losing at FBS Ole Miss and then suffering a tough-looking 24-20 loss vs. Charleston Southern. They rebounded last week to beat Stetson 48-7. W&M has looked solid, starting 2-1 with an FBS loss to Coastal Carolina and beating two SoCon teams, VMI 41-7 and Wofford 28-21.

Prediction: W&M 31-17

No. 1 SDSU at Southeastern Louisiana

There was plenty to poke at in SDSU’s 24-3 win over D2 Augustana. The Jackrabbits eye a complete performance over a proud SLU program that is typically in the playoff hunt. SDSU’s run defense looks stout, and SLU hasn’t looked too comfortable throwing the ball.

Prediction: SDSU 31-14

Northern Arizona at No. 15 UIW

UIW is on a two-game losing streak, but it pushed two Top 10 teams at SDSU and SIU. NAU has looked solid so far, playing FBS No. 20 Arizona tough in a 22-10 loss and then beating up on Lincoln and Utah Tech. Expect a tight ball game here, but UIW gets back in the win column.

Prediction: UIW 28-21

The post Week 4 FCS Predictions appeared first on HERO Sports.

Let’s predict some scores.

Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 12-3
2023 Record: 96-42

Week 3

Week 3 Viewing Guide

No. 17 UAlbany at No. 4 Idaho

A rematch of last year’s quarterfinals where UAlbany went to Moscow and beat Idaho 30-22. Most of the star players from that game are gone.

There are still many unknowns about the 2024 UAlbany squad. It squeaked by LIU 27-21 in an underwhelming performance before losing 49-14 at West Virginia. There are also some unknowns about Idaho’s offense as it could be down to its third-string QB this weekend.

But one thing that looks certain is Idaho’s defense is elite, perhaps the best in the FCS. The Vandals held No. 3 Oregon to 24 points and Wyoming to 13 points. Jaxton Eck has 23 total tackles against the two FBS opponents, and Keyshawn James-Newby already has five sacks.

As UAlbany still tries to find its footing offensively, Idaho should get a two-score win here. Especially at the Kibbie Dome in front of fans who are thirsting to see the Vandals at home for the first time this season.

Prediction: Idaho 28-17

No. 23 Mercer at No. 14 Chattanooga

Mercer may have the best defense in the SoCon. While not the strongest of FCS opponents, the Bears shut down Presbyterian and Bethune-Cookman in 63-10 and 31-2 wins. Isaac Dowling and Ken Standley are dudes for that unit as veteran leaders.

Chattanooga may have the best offense in the SoCon. The Mocs are getting some Top 10 votes despite being 0-2 with two FBS losses — losing at No. 15 Tennessee before nearly beating Georgia State in a 24-21 loss. Quarterback Chase Artopoeus has two great targets in Javin Whatley and Sam Phillips.

These are two playoff-level teams in the SoCon. An 0-3 start is a tough hole for the Mocs, so I think they put together a strong performance at home and get into the win column. Chattanooga is looked at as a team with the potential to make a nice playoff run. Now is the time to prove it by stringing together some wins against FCS competition.

Prediction: Chattanooga 27-24

No. 12 UIW at No. 9 Southern Illinois

UIW pushed No. 1 SDSU last week. It was 17-17 in the third and the Cardinals trailed 31-24 early in the fourth. They no doubt earned more respect nationally as Zach Calzada especially looked like a top quarterback in the FCS.

But now the question is did UIW empty the clip in that performance? Did it pour everything into that game and won’t be able to match that intensity for the rest of the season?

The Cardinals go on another tough road trip to SIU, who is 1-1 after a solid win at Austin Peay. SIU can be a disruptive defense. Ben Bogle is a wrecking crew himself, racking up 6.5 TFLs and 3.5 sacks last week.

But UIW may be able to find success passing the ball, which is what it wants to do anyway. SIU allowed 292 passing yards at Austin Peay and is allowing 320 passing yards per game through two weeks.

I can picture a flat performance by UIW and SIU rolling at home. The Salukis never lack in talent. But if there’s an “upset” to call in these four ranked matchups, I’ll go with UIW proving last week wasn’t a one-time performance.

Prediction: UIW 28-21

No. 24 Nicholls at No. 11 Sacramento State

This is a crucial game for both squads.

They enter with 0-2 records, all against FBS opponents. Sac State lost 42-24 at San Jose State and 46-30 at Fresno State. Nicholls lost 25-17 at LA Tech and 44-21 at LSU, a game that was pretty dang close in the third quarter.

These two met last year as Sac State won 38-24 at Nicholls (it was 38-10 in the fourth quarter).

Sac State’s offense hasn’t quite gelled yet as it figures out its quarterback rotation. Kaiden Bennett has been the starter and has shown flashes of great potential, but he also has a 1:3 TD:INT ratio. Carson Conklin is super-talented as well and has thrown the same number of passes (46) as Bennett with a 4:0 TD:INT ratio. We’ll see if they can find more consistency against FCS competition.

Nicholls wants to run the ball. That has been its identity for years. Collin Guggenheim is already up to 224 yards and two touchdowns. But Sac State’s defense has been tough against the run, allowing just 109 rushing yards per game.

Prediction: Sac State 31-21

More FCS Predictions

Western Carolina at No. 22 Elon
Pick: Elon 31-27

No. 13 William & Mary at Wofford
Pick: W&M 28-20

No. 15 UC Davis at Southern Utah
Pick: SUU 28-27

Idaho State at No. 10 North Dakota
Pick: UND 38-28

No. 2 North Dakota State at ETSU
Pick: NDSU 42-17

North Alabama at UT Martin
Pick: UT Martin 34-27

The post Week 3 FCS Predictions appeared first on HERO Sports.

Let’s predict some scores.

Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 7-1
2023 Record: 96-42

Week 2

Week 2 Viewing Guide

UT Martin at SEMO

The Big South-OVC should be an interesting race. Eastern Illinois returns most of its starting lineup after a breakout season. SEMO has veteran leaders like QB Paxton DeLaurent, OL Zack Gieg, and LB Bryce Norman. Tennessee State is on the rise. And Gardner-Webb looks to stay atop the standings. But it was UT Martin who got the No. 1 slot in the preseason poll.

It’ll be a fun QB battle on Saturday between UT Martin’s Kinkead Dent and SEMO’s DeLaurent. Dent threw for 2,295 yards, 25 TDs, and eight interceptions last fall after he transferred in from Ole Miss. He’s a big reason why the Skyhawks are preseason No. 1. In the season-opener last week, Dent went 7/14 for 87 yards in a 41-6 loss at Kansas State.

DeLaurent, meanwhile, looks to replicate his 2022 season when he threw for 2,684 yards, 19 touchdowns, and six interceptions. He missed half of last season with a shoulder injury.

SEMO is 1-1 but should be 2-0 with an FBS win. The Redhawks led 16-10 in the fourth quarter before New Mexico State came back to win 23-16. DeLaurent went 27/45 for 295 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in the loss. A positive was he returned after leaving the Week 0 game (a win over North Alabama) with a shoulder injury. He was 14/17 passing for 96 yards and a touchdown in that matchup.

SEMO had a tough time closing out close games last year. It happened again last week. Fortune flips this week at home and the Redhawks pull out a nail-biting win.

Prediction: SEMO 34-31

Campbell at No. 17 Western Carolina

Two teams that battled FBS opponents tough last week. Campbell lost to Liberty 41-24, while WCU lost 38-21 at FBS No. 24 NC State in a game it led 21-17 entering the fourth quarter.

WCU’s Cole Gonzales looked the part of a top quarterback in the FCS. He went 22/35 passing for 211 yards and two touchdowns and had 75 rushing yards on six carries.

Campbell has a talented roster, but its defense will have a hard time slowing down the Catamounts at home.

Prediction: Western Carolina 34-21

Elon at NC Central

I have Elon ranked No. 16 while NC Central is just outside of my Top 25. Last year, NC Central beat Elon 34-23.

Elon has a good nucleus back from its 6-5 squad. Its safety tandem is elite with Caleb Curtain and Khalil Baker, who is a transfer from NC Central.

NC Central lost its standout quarterback Davius Richard as he pursued the NFL. But the Eagles like who they have behind center in Walker Harris. He’ll have to be more efficient than 9/18 for 119 yards and a touchdown in a 31-24 win over Alabama State to find success against a good Elon defense.

Prediction: Elon 28-24

No. 10 Southern Illinois at Austin Peay

Austin Peay has consistently been in the playoff picture in recent years. But there are some unknowns about its 2024 roster. The Govs lost a lot of players to graduation or the transfer portal. Nearly 30 D1 transfers were brought in to replenish the roster. Their 62-0 season-opening loss at Louisville doesn’t give us many answers.

SIU is also coming off of an FBS loss, 41-13 at BYU. The Salukis have some rebuilding to do as well with a new starting QB and production to replace on defense. DJ Williams, a transfer from Murray State, finished 10/20 passing for 98 yards and an interception while rushing for 121 yards and two touchdowns. Its rush defense held up well, led by LB Colin Bohanek (12 tackles), limiting BYU to 3.8 yards per carry (47 attempts for 149 yards).

Expect Austin Peay to try and attack SIU through the air. But the Salukis should be able to control the trenches to earn a road win.

Prediction: SIU 31-21

No. 12 UIW at No. 1 South Dakota State

SDSU didn’t compete as well as some expected last week in its 44-20 loss at FBS No. 17 Oklahoma State. UIW looked OK in a 28-7 home win over a struggling Northern Colorado program.

Week 2 will tell us a lot more about both teams.

Is SDSU still the juggernaut that overmatches 95% of the FCS?

Is the No. 12 ranking for UIW deserved after it didn’t impress well enough to get into the 2023 playoff bracket with an 8-2 record (seven D1 wins)?

UIW won’t be able to beat SDSU at its own game. The Cardinals will have to try and go around the Jackrabbits and not through them, spreading them out and letting the talented arm of Zach Calzada do some damage. SDSU did allow 245 passing yards last week. But that was a Big 12 offense. Keep in mind that the Jackrabbits return a mostly same-look secondary as last year’s team that ranked No. 8 in FCS passing defense (167.6 YPG).

UIW also played solid defense last year relative to its strength of schedule that ranked in the 80s.

I expect UIW to hit on some big plays offensively while its defense gives SDSU’s offense a stiff test. At least in the first half. Eventually, in the final two quarters, SDSU’s physicality will wear on UIW and the Jacks will pull away for a win.

Prediction: SDSU 38-21

No. 4 Montana at No. 23 North Dakota

UND has won 25 of its last 28 games inside the Alerus Center. The Fighting Hawks are 10-3 at home against ranked opponents since 2019. Montana hasn’t lost an FCS non-conference game since 2018.

It’s a great early test for a Montana squad eyeing a return to the national championship game. The Grizzlies were slow out of the gate in 2023 before peaking at the right time. Montana beat Missouri State 29-24 last week, a closer game than some expected and perhaps a sign that a slow start could occur again. Notably, the Grizzlies were without three All-American-level players: wide receiver/returner Junior Bergen, linebacker Riley Wilson, and tight end Cole Grossman. Their statuses for Saturday are unknown.

Similar to 2023, the Griz have a two-QB system to begin the year. Redshirt freshman Keali’i Ah Yat got the start last week before Fresno State transfer Logan Fife came in during the second half.

Montana can’t afford a choppy non-conference like last fall. UND, despite losing 21-3 at Iowa State, showed plenty of positives. The Hawks will be in the playoff hunt again, and they are a very tough team to beat at home. Montana also hosts ranked WCU in a couple of weeks. Dropping a non-conference game puts the pressure on the Griz to go 8-0 in Big Sky play to earn a Top 2 playoff seed and coveted home-field advantage.

Last week, Missouri State’s run-pass balance found success on Montana’s defense. I’m not sure if UND has that offensive balance yet. Its running game looked solid at Iowa State. The o-line, with four new starters, got a decent push. Gaven Ziebarth and Isaiah Smith are two great backs. But Montana’s rush defense should force enough third downs to give the Griz a chance to get off the field.

UND QB Simon Romfo will be in his second career start, and he’ll need to show some progression in the throwing game. An inexperienced QB and an o-line still gelling in pass protection going up against a pressure-heavy Montana defense results in the Grizzlies getting off the field on third downs while their offense hits on enough explosive plays for a hard-fought win.

Prediction: Montana 28-24

Tennessee State at No. 2 North Dakota State

The Bison should win this game. How they win will be most intriguing.

NDSU’s secondary got picked apart last week at Colorado, allowing nearly 450 passing yards. A part of that was Colorado just being that good. But there were also some holes, defensive breakdowns, bad tackling, bad angles, and missed assignments.

Tennessee State looks to contend for a playoff spot out of the Big South-OVC. The Tigers will test that NDSU secondary after veteran QB Draylen Ellis threw for 350+ yards in a 41-21 Week 1 win over Mississippi Valley State. Holding up in the trenches will be the challenge, though. NDSU’s d-line should be among the best in the FCS. And expect the Bison rushing attack to get rolling after an up-and-down game at Colorado.

Prediction: NDSU 41-21

The post Week 2 FCS Predictions appeared first on HERO Sports.

A new Daily Dose will be published multiple times a week.

Sun Belt Admits Officiating Error In UCA-Arkansas State Game-Winning TD

The Sun Belt released a Tuesday statement saying there was an officiating error when the refs overturned an Arkansas State incomplete pass into a game-winning touchdown against Central Arkansas.

Here’s the play:

It potentially cost Central Arkansas a chance at an FBS win. There were three seconds on the clock, so Arkansas State would have had another chance at the end zone if the on-field ruling was not overturned.

Down 27-10 early in the fourth quarter, UCA stormed back to take a 31-27 lead on a Darius Hale 4-yard touchdown run with 55 seconds left. Arkansas State then went 70 yards in seven plays and 52 seconds to score on the controversial call.

Sun Belt Statement:

The Sun Belt Conference, upon review of the complete pass call with 3 seconds remaining in the Central Arkansas at Arkansas State football game, has announced an incorrect application of the replay review process.  
 
The replay official was focused on the firm control and body part down aspects of the act of a catch and failed to evaluate the surviving the ground aspect of a catch during the review of the play in question. 
 
The right end zone camera shows the receiver did not survive the ground, but this camera angle was not consulted by the replay official. The replay ruling should have confirmed the on-field call of an incomplete pass. 

1-Score FCS vs. FBS Losses

The FCS did not get a win over an FBS opponent in Week 1, keeping the total at one so far this season (Montana State over New Mexico in Week 0).

While there were plenty of blowouts (which is usual and nothing new), there were also a lot of close games. There were probably 25-30 games at halftime where the FCS team either led an FBS opponent, were tied, or trailed by one score. In most of those games, the depth of the FBS and its 22 more scholarships took over in the second half. But multiple games saw close finishes, a play or two away from more FCS over FBS wins.

Week 1 saw seven one-score FCS vs. FBS losses:

• Colorado 31, NDSU 26
• Arkansas State 34, UCA 31
• Middle TN State 32, TN Tech 25
• Texas Tech 52, ACU 51 (OT)
• LA Tech 25, Nicholls 17
• Texas State 34, Lamar 27
• New Mexico State 23, SEMO 16

The FCS is coming off a low number of FBS wins in 2023 with just four. There were eight in 2022 and 12 in 2021.

We’ll need another year or two before we know if the low number is a trend or not.

That’s because the number of FCS over FBS victories has always fluctuated. There were only six in 1993, three in 1997, and six in 1998 and 1999. It went up to 15 in 2000, then back down to six in 2004. There were only two in 2008 and five in 2009. It ballooned to 16 in 2013, then went back to single digits for most of the 2010s.

When the FCS had 20 combined FBS wins in 2021 and 2022, a talking point was could the portal even things out with so many FBS guys looking for more playing time in the FCS? Now that there are fewer FCS over FBS victories, a talking point is these wins will become less common because all the top talent trickles up. This is somewhat true as many FCS standouts transfer to the FBS. But it’s also exaggerated as most FCS All-Conference players with eligibility remaining stay with their FCS team.

With the freedom to transfer without sitting out a year, the NIL money in the Power 4, and scholarship limits increasing, it seems likely that it will get more challenging for FCS teams to beat FBS programs. Plus, the FBS has gotten smarter about which FCS teams they choose to schedule.

One thing that’s certain is that the depth of the FBS was on display in the second half of these FCS-FBS matchups.

Past Daily Doses

Idaho QB Jack Layne Out Several Weeks With Broken Collarbone + SEMO QB Paxton DeLaurent Returns From Shoulder Injury … READ MORE

FCS Teams Bringing In The Most 2024 Division 1 Transfers … READ MORE

2024 Postseason Games Won’t Count Toward 4-Game Redshirt Rule … READ MORE

The post FCS Daily Dose: Sun Belt Admits Officiating Error In UCA-Arkansas State Game-Winning TD appeared first on HERO Sports.

Here’s a look at the upcoming UAC season, including names to know and our predicted order of finish.

RELATED: FCS Preseason Preview Central

Preseason All-Americans

Via FCS Football Central

Central Arkansas (3) — RB ShunDerrick Powell (1st Team), DE David Walker (1st Team), S TaMuarion Wilson (2nd Team)

Tarleton State (2) — WR Darius Cooper (1st Team), Kayvon Britten (2nd Team)

Eastern Kentucky (1) — OL Payton Collins (2nd Team)

Teams Bringing In The Most D1 Transfers

FBS-to-FCS Transfers & FCS-to-FCS Transfers

Austin Peay — 29 (21 FBS, 8 FCS)

West Georgia — 29 (13 FBS, 16 FCS)

North Alabama — 21 (13 FBS, 8 FCS)

Abilene Christian — 20 (19 FBS, 1 FCS)

Utah Tech — 16 (13 FBS, 3 FCS)

Names To Know

TOP OFFENSIVE PLAYER: Kayvon Britten, Tarleton State RB — Britten is a back-to-back All-Conference First Team selection for two different teams. In 2022 at Arkansas-Pine Bluff, he rushed for 1,063 yards and 16 touchdowns. Britten transferred to Tarleton State last year and had another dynamite season. The 5-foot-7 and 195-pounder rushed for 1,150 yards on 183 carries (6.3 YPC) and 16 TDs, earning two All-American honors.

TOP DEFENSIVE PLAYER: David Walker, Central Arkansas DE — In 2022, Walker totaled 66 tackles, 22 TFLs, and 12 sacks, finishing third in the Buck Buchanan Award voting, earning ASUN Defensive Player of the Year honors, and being named to six All-American teams. Last fall, the 6-foot-2 and 260-pounder totaled 57 tackles, 18 TFLs, and 8.5 sacks. He graded out as PFF’s No. 9 overall FCS edge defender. Walker earned three more All-American accolades and was named the UAC’s Defensive Player of the Year.

TOP NFL PROSPECT: David Walker, Central Arkansas DE — Walker’s skillset and tape have landed him on NFL radars. He was recently named to the 2025 Senior Bowl Watchlist.

HERO Sports’ Predicted Order of Finish

1. Central Arkansas
2. Tarleton State
3. Southern Utah
4. Austin Peay
5. Eastern Kentucky
6. North Alabama
7. Abilene Christian
8. Utah Tech
9. West Georgia

Central Arkansas and Tarleton State are two preseason Top 25 FCS programs entering this fall.

Tarleton is already off to a 1-0 start, beating McNeese 26-23 in Week 0, a game it led 26-7 at halftime. Quarterback Victor Gabalis did not play in the second half due to a thumb injury. His status moving forward will be key in Tarleton living up to its preseason hype. The offense and defense both return a bulk of their starters from last year’s 8-3 team, led by star wide receiver Darius Cooper and All-American running back Kayvon Britten.

Central Arkansas is getting some preseason Top 10 FCS love. And deservedly so. The talent is there to be much better than its 7-4 record last fall. Two of those were two-point losses to conference opponents. UCA returns its multi-year starting quarterback (Will McElvain), top two running backs with past All-American accolades (ShunDerrick Powell and Darius Hale), and four starting offensive linemen. The defense brings back seven of the 15 players who recorded at least 200 snaps last year, highlighted by standout David Walker at defensive end and TaMuarion Wilson at safety.

These top two teams should be pushed by the next few squads in our preseason rankings.

Southern Utah has been rising under head coach DeLane Fitzgerald and expects to continue that rise this fall, led by DL Rylen Sua-Filo and LB Kohner Cullimore. The QB room features two guys who have started for other FCS programs — Bronson Barron at Weber State and Jordan Pachot at Missouri State.

Austin Peay lost the bulk of its starting lineup due to graduation or the transfer portal. The Governors brought in 29 D1 transfers to rejuvenate its roster, including several guys who were impact players on their previous team. Chandler Kirton is a returning standout looking to set the ton on the o-line. Eastern Kentucky will always have good individual talent, but it needs to overcome the loss of all-time great QB Parker McKinney. EKU offensive linemen Payton Collins and DB Mike Smith Jr. are two guys on the NFL radar.

North Alabama has plenty of experience returning, including standout DB Edwin White Schultz and WR Takairee Kenebrew, plus 21 D1 transfers coming in. But it had a disappointing performance in a Week 0 loss to SEMO. Abilene Christian was competitive last year, finishing 3-3 in the conference standings, while Utah Tech has struggled in its transition to D1.

West Georgia is a new FCS member looking to bring its D2 success to the FCS. The program is overhauling its roster, bringing in 29 D1 transfers.

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